To kick off the divisional playoff round, the AFC's top seed, the Kansas City Chiefs, host the fourth-seeded Jacksonville Jaguars at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium for the second time this season. Kansas City did its thing back in Week 10, securing a 27-17 win over Jacksonville, and with a win on Saturday, the Chiefs will advance to their fifth-straight AFC Championship Game.
Kansas City's expected to do just that, per BetMGM, sitting as 9.5-point home favorites with an implied win probability of 83.3 percent (-500 on the moneyline). Jacksonville's looking to play the role of spoiler though, as an upset win would result in Kansas City's second-consecutive home playoff loss. For DFS players looking for advice on some sleeper and breakout picks, we've crafted our favorite DraftKings lineup for Saturday afternoon's contest that involves a Chiefs-heavy build.
Before we get into our picks and strategy, here are the key scoring settings for DraftKings Showdown contests: They're full-point PPR and there are three-point bonuses for 300 passing yards, 100 rushing yards, and 100 receiving yards. The Captain pick costs 1.5 times a player's original price, but he also gets his point total multiplied by 1.5.
MORE DK SHOWDOWN: How to win a Showdown contest
Playoff DraftKings Showdown Picks: Chiefs vs. Jaguars
$50,000 budget, need at least one player from each team.
Captain (1.5x points, 1.5x salary): QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs ($18,600)
Rather than opting for a more contrarian Captain, we're paying up to roster the MVP frontrunner. Mahomes still has a sour taste in his mouth after his performance in last season's AFC Championship Game and figures to show out against Jacksonville. The NFL's passing leader is always capable of throwing for 300-plus yards and multiple touchdowns and should thrive as long as he's kept clean in the pocket. In the first meeting against Jacksonville, the Jaguars consistently rushed just four and couldn't get to Mahomes, failing to record a sack. With Mahomes leading all QBs in clean pocket completion percentage (75 percent), he should feast behind an offensive line sporting the fifth-lowest adjusted sack rate (4.8 percent).
MORE CHIEFS-JAGUARS:
Betting preview | Best props | FD lineup
FLEX TE Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($11,000)
We'll also spend up to stack Kelce and Mahomes, hoping the duo connects for at least one touchdown. Kelce's been Mahomes' favorite target in the red zone, leading all players with 29 red-zone targets. Despite all the attention Kelce commands, he's still virtually unguardable and should have his way against a Jaguars defense ranking 27th against tight ends. Jacksonville most recently allowed Los Angeles tight end Gerald Everett to rack up 109 receiving yards and a touchdown, and a similar output from Kelce is achievable. Kelce was his normal self against Jacksonville back in Week 10, scoring 20.1 DK points (six receptions, 81 yards, one TD) as DFS players should trust the league's best tight end to post a similar stat line in Saturday's rematch.
FLEX TE Evan Engram, Jaguars ($5,800)
With Jacksonville likely to employ a more pass-heavy offensive approach, Engram makes for an intriguing play at only $5,800. Engram led all Jaguars in receiving last week, putting up 22.3 DK points in the come-from-behind win (seven receptions, 93 yards, one TD). Engram's averaging 11.4 DK points per game and given the plus matchup against the Chiefs' league-average pass defense (16th in drop-back EPA) Engram's season average feels like his floor in what should be a high-scoring contest.
FLEX WR Kadarius Toney, Chiefs ($5,400)
With Mecole Hardman (pelvis) looking like a long shot to suit up, Toney's got a shot to replicate his big Week 10 performance against Jacksonville. Toney's second game as a Chief came against the Jaguars, and he flashed his play-making abilities all afternoon (four receptions, 57 yards, one TD, and 33 rushing yards). Outside of Kelce, it's tough to predict exactly who Mahomes will rely on in the passing game, but we're hoping the former first-round pick produces this week. Toney's snap percentage is still fairly low, but with the Chiefs expected to score their fair share of points, he's got a legit shot to reach paydirt on one of the many red-zone drives for Kansas City.
FLEX WR Marvin Jones Jr., Jaguars ($4,800)
Jones Jr.'s a sleeper play at $4,800 despite his salary increasing by $2,200 following an 11.9-point showing last week. Jones Jr. played on 85 percent of Jacksonville's offensive snaps last week and saw six total targets. Another six-plus target game could easily result in a double-digit fantasy showing, making Jones Jr. well worth his $4,800 price tag.
FLEX K Harrison Butker, Chiefs ($4,200)
We'll round out our lineup with Butker, thinking he'll connect on two-plus field goals while making all his extra points (ahem, Brett Maher). A 10-plus point showing is all we need to keep our lineup competitive, and we're thinking Butker gives us a double-digit fantasy performance as the Chiefs' offense is likely to march up and down the field on Saturday.
