Last week was a lot of fun, and we made it two for two in majors with Brooks Koepka’s win at 11/1. Between massive wins on Koepka, Tiger Woods at the Masters at 14/1, and Kevin Kisner at 66/1 at the WGC-Matchplay, we have absolutely cleaned up over the past two months of the PGA season with our betting advice, and we'll try to stay hot this week at the Charles Schwab Challenge.
The Charles Schwab Challenge, while having a new sponsor, is an event with a long history and is played at one of the most historical courses on the PGA Tour, Colonial Country Club. Colonial is going to play almost completely opposite from what we saw last week at Bethpage Black. It's a fairly short course at a 7,200-yard, Par-70 layout with tree lined fairways.
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Colonial is a layout that allows players options off of the tee and will reward placement over power in many instances. With the majority of Par 4s falling between 400-450 yards, players will have a ton of approach shots from 150 yards and less, so golfers will be faced with plenty of short iron and wedge approaches.
The green complexes at Colonial CC are some of the smaller greens on tour, and we regularly see players with strong short games play well at this event. If you are looking at some events/courses that have a similar profile to Colonial, take a look at PGA National (Honda Classic), Innisbrook GC (Valspar Championship), Harbour Town (RBC Heritage), and TPC Sawgrass (The Players Championship).
The field this week is smaller than usual at 122 players and features a thin top end with defending champion Justin Rose headlining the field along with Jon Rahm, Jordan Spieth, Rickie Fowler, Francesco Molinari, Bryson DeChambeau, and Tony Finau. The smaller field, along with the course layout, should allow some longer shots to contend for the win, so I would have no problems with betting on a couple players with longer odds and building “stars-and-scrubs” lineup builds in DFS formats.
Before we get into the picks, we always like to remind you that plenty of strategy goes into cashing winning DFS lineups and winning betting tickets. By now you should know the best place to start is RotoQL’s DFS tools and the BetQL Mobile App. Our easy-to-use RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer gives you a big advantage when you're putting together DFS lineups, and our BetQL Trending Picks and Public Betting tools provide a massive edge when you're making bets, regardless of bankroll size.
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Key Stats
Strokes Gained Approach
Strokes Gained Approach 125-150 yards
Scrambling
Par 4 Scoring
Charles Schwab Challenge picks (Daily Fantasy Golf)
DFS Core Plays to Consider:
Top Tier: Jon Rahm, Rickie Fowler, Kevin Kisner
Mid Tier: Rory Sabbatini, Joel Dahmen, Billy Horschel, Brandt Snedeker, Pat Perez
Value Plays: Matt Jones, Jhonnathan Vegas, Sam Burns, Kevin Streelman
Charles Schwab Challenge betting advice
Outright Bets to Consider
*odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryson DeChambeau 33/1
The top end of the field this week makes me feel uneasy. Justin Rose (10/1), Jon Rahm (10/1), Rickie Fowler (12/1), and Jordan Spieth (14/1) have compelling cases for and against them, and while Rahm would be my pick of the bunch, I don’t like the odds for any of these guys at a course that should see a wide range of possible contenders. For me, I’m going to start my card with DeChambeau at 33/1 odds. While DeChambeau has zero form right now, you have to think that he is going to turn it around soon given his talent. Dechambeau at 33/1 in a 122-man field that features a weak top and mid range of talent is too good of value to pass up on.
Brandt Snedeker 60/1
I’m really interested in the 60/1-and-over range this week, and Snedeker is the first name that I jumped on here. Snedeker has been playing some sneaky good golf and backdoored a T16 finish at a brutally tough layout last week at the PGA Championship. Snedeker has played well at all of the corollary courses that I’m looking at this season and Colonial is a course that should really play well to Snedeker’s strong wedge and short game.
Billy Horschel 66/1
I don’t think I’ve ever bet Horschel in my life, but there’s a first time for everything. That streak ends this week at Colonial. Horschel isn’t very long off of the tee, but courses like Colonial are places where Horschel’s game can shine. While Horschel has yet to really pop up on any leaderboards this season, his career trajectory has given us a large enough sample size that we can expect him to at least put himself into position to win a few times a year. Odds of 66/1 are great value for a guy who has shown winning upside at similar layouts in a weak field.
Joaquin Niemann 150/1
Around this time last season Niemann was being hailed in some circles as the next big thing in golf. While it’s way too soon to make an proclamations about Niemann’s career as a pro, I think it’s safe to say that he hasn't quite backed up the substantial hype that was around him in the second year of his career. With that being said, I like him this week at 150/1. We have seen multiple first-time, long-shot winners over the past few weeks in Sung Kang and Max Homa, and it would not shock me at all to see another one this week at Colonial. Niemann’s ball-striking game can compete with almost anyone when he’s on; it’s just a matter on if his putter can just be average.