2019 Fantasy Football Tiers, Draft Strategy: Wide receiver

Billy Heyen

2019 Fantasy Football Tiers, Draft Strategy: Wide receiver image

One of the first things we noted in our wide receiver rankings was how any the top-eight WRs had an argument to be first off the board. That’s where fantasy cheat sheets can go out the window and tiers can come into play. Tiering is made for situations exactly like that -- when separation among options is so thin that they deserve to be grouped together. It helps with draft strategy, team building, and identifying sleepers and breakouts.

As you move along this list of WR tiers, be aware of when you'll likely have start drafting these players. Having target rounds for your WR1/2/3/FLEX helps you with your entire roster. These tiers do some of that work for you, helping to see the differences each step along the way.

2019 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback Running back Wide Receiver Tight End D/ST Kicker | Top 200

2019 WR Rankings Tiers: Who are the best fantasy wide receivers?

Unlike with the QB tiers, there’s something sort of comforting about the top-eight wide receivers who make up our Tier 1. While of course they won’t all put up the exact same amount of points, you really can’t go wrong drafting any of these guys in the first two rounds of your 2019 fantasy football drafts. Yes, you won’t be agreeing with that when you inevitably draft the one who underperforms or gets hurt, but that will be bad luck more than anything else.

In our WR rankings, we go into a bit more depth about each of these guys. Here, we’ll try to uncover the differences in this top tier that might make choosing between these players easier. 

If you’re the type of person who hates change, a la Sheldon Cooper of The Big Bang Theory, then Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham, Jr. aren’t for you. Brown heads from a pass-happy Pittsburgh to a bit more unstable situation in Oakland. Beckham does the opposite, moving from an aging QB in Eli Manning to a blossoming star in Baker Mayfield. But it is probably a bit harder to predict these guys’ exact outputs, relative to a few of the other names in the top tier. Plus, OBJ has a bit of an injury history now that shouldn't be ignored.

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If you’re avoiding change, go with the players whose surroundings haven’t really shifted: DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, Julio Jones, and Michael Thomas. These four have been consistently excellent for a substantial length of time. They’re all still paired with quarterbacks who trust them and will get them the ball. Barring injury, it’s hard to see any sort of bust scenario with these four. (Also, this is the part where we lament that Julio Jones just has to catch double-digit TDs in a season at some point, right?)

In early July, Tyreek Hill’s placement seemed more questionable, but the NFL announced that he wouldn’t be suspended by the league without new evidence in his domestic abuse case. That means fantasy’s top per-game receiver from a year ago should rival anyone at this position with his production this season. There’s just the obvious caveat that if further need for discipline were to arise for Hill, he’s on a bit weaker footing.

The eighth guy in the top tier, JuJu Smith-Schuster, has as much intrigue as any. His situation might be the most obviously improved. Antonio Brown received the third-most targets among WRs last year, with Smith-Schuster fourth. Brown’s 168 targets are out of town now, so Smith-Schuster has the potential to lead football in passes coming his way. He’s proven the ability to make things happen each time he has the ball, so an even bigger season than 2018 could be coming his way. 

1. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans
2. Davante Adams, Packers
3. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs
4. Julio Jones, Falcons
5. Antonio Brown, Raiders
6. Michael Thomas, Saints
7. Odell Beckham, Jr., Browns
8. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers

FANTASY SLEEPERS: 
8 QBs | 14 RBs | 11 WRs | 11 TEs | 6 D/STs | One from each team

Fantasy WR Tiers: Borderline-WR1s

We’ve entered the realm of the “eh” fantasy No. 1 wideouts. Selecting any of the eight names above should feel exhilarating since you're picking up an explosive playmaker to carry your team. These next six names don’t quite incite that same rush. They’re fine, passable options as a fantasy team’s top receiver (and would make phenomenal No. 2s if you go WR-WR with your first two selections). But they’re in Tier 2 for a reason.

Adam Thielen and Mike Evans are the two safest options here. They’ll get their numbers. Evans supplements across-the-board production as an excellent red-zone threat, and Thielen makes catches all over the field. Especially if you haven’t drafted a top WR before getting to this tier, Thielen and Evans are probably the way to go to lock in points.

If you’re feeling a bit more risky (or if your league awards points for trips to the trainer’s room), Keenan Allen and A.J. Green present themselves as viable options. Both could miss games, but when they're on the field, they should be just as productive as Thielen and Evans. 

Finally, this tier brings with it two younger deep threats. Calvin Ridley carries doubts as the No. 2 WR in Atlanta, while Amari Cooper features in a run-heavy Dallas scheme. They’re exactly the type of guys that, if you don’t draft them, will make you kick yourself when they catch two long touchdowns in Week 8. This might make them extra popular in the growing best-ball league format, where the occasional quiet game can be overcome by monster weeks. Ridley also is the 22nd receiver off boards in drafts, per FantasyPros’ composite ADP rankings, so you might not have to pay Tier 2 price to acquire him.

These six wideouts are exactly the type of players you’ll get as your top WR if you focus on running back or quarterback in the opening few rounds. They’re not a bad consolation prize if you draft Saquon Barkley and Nick Chubb before snagging Thielen. Just know that this is what you’re signing up for if you wait a couple rounds before looking out wide.

9. Adam Thielen, Vikings
10. Keenan Allen, Chargers
11. A.J. Green, Bengals
12. Calvin Ridley, Falcons
13. Amari Cooper, Cowboys
14. Mike Evans, Buccaneers

2019 Fantasy Draft Strategy: WR targets

Welcome to the smallest WR tier on our board. A lot of tier-makers might not even consider a grouping this small in the middle of the rankings. But this felt right, mostly because there’s a definite chasm between Tier 3 and all the names that come below it. If you wanted to slide any of these names up a tier, I wouldn’t fight you. They possess a lot of the same qualities as the Tier 2 wideouts. 

So, now you’re probably asking, why separate them? It has to do with ceiling. Every player on this list, one through 94, has a potential max level of production. To some extent, that’s taken into account when drafting. If players tie on their most likely outcome, the one with the higher ceiling is probably the better pick. For one reason or another, these third-tier WRs offer slightly lower ceilings than those above them.

Neither Brandin Cooks nor Stefon Diggs are unquestioned top options. Diggs is pretty clearly No. 2 in Minnesota behind Thielen. Cooks has to contend for targets with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods on the Rams. And in Indianapolis, T.Y. Hilton gets help from Devin Funchess opposite him and two solid TEs, but that might lower the overall counting stats of Hilton. 

Then there’s Kenny Golladay, easily the best wideout in Detroit. He hasn’t proven that he’s a week-in, week-out stud -- at least not yet. Golladay’s most-likely outcome might be lower than the first three names due to being slightly less proven. But at least within this tier, if you like ceiling, he’s your guy. The path to world-beater production is most readily apparent for Golladay. 

In conclusion, all of these pass-catchers would make fantastic WR2s in standard leagues.

15. T.Y. Hilton, Colts
16. Brandin Cooks, Rams
17. Stefon Diggs, Vikings
18. Kenny Golladay, Lions

2019 Fantasy Rankings: Borderline WR2s

Once we get into tiers with more players in them, starting with Tier 4, it’s hard to single out what these WRs have in common. If you like youth, you have Will Fuller V, Cooper Kupp, Mike Williams and Corey Davis. If your team needs a veteran, there’s Alshon Jeffery and Julian Edelman. 

This is the part of every draft where it’s important to understand your league. A PPR format boosts Edelman, Tate, Jarvis Landry and Robert Woods. Big-play leagues would favor Jeffery, Tyler Lockett and Allen Robinson. Drafters can start to make the wrong decisions here, although they won’t be readily apparent on draft day. It’s unlikely all the players in this tier finish this high in the end-of-season rankings. There’s just a little more volatility and risk at this point on the board.

Getting one of these guys as your WR2 should work, and because they'll go off the board randomly and over the span of several rounds, you don't necessarily need to reach for any of them.

19. Alshon Jeffery, Eagles
20. Jarvis Landry, Browns
21. Will Fuller V, Texans
22. Cooper Kupp, Rams
23. Mike Williams, Chargers
24. Tyler Lockett, Seahawks
25. Robert Woods, Rams
26. Corey Davis, Titans
27. Julian Edelman, Patriots
28. Sammy Watkins, Chiefs
29. Golden Tate, Giants
30. Allen Robinson, Bears

2019 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Top 200

Fantasy WR Rankings Tiers: Mid-round values

Allow me this moment to single out two players that should end up on your team based on where they’re being drafted. For us, both James Washington and Tyrell Williams fit into Tier 5. But both are being drafted 14-spots lower among WRs than we have them, according to early FantasyPros’ composite ADP. Washington and Williams enter the season as No. 2 wideouts on their teams, but both have gobs of natural ability and should see more than 100 passes heading in their directions. 

If there's one takeaway from Tier 5, it’s that you should aim to own Washington and Williams in the middle rounds. Beyond that, we’re entering into the WR3/FLEX ranks of 12-team leagues, even though it wouldn't be a surprise to see some of these guys finish as WR2s. Nabbing at least one of these guys for WR3/top backup slot is recommended.

31. D.J. Moore, Panthers
32. Devin Funchess, Colts
33. James Washington, Steelers
34. Marvin Jones, Lions
35. Tyler Boyd, Bengals
36. Sterling Shepard, Giants
37. Courtland Sutton, Broncos
38. DeSean Jackson, Eagles
39. Tyrell Williams, Raiders
40. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals

2019 Fantasy WR Sleepers

I’m not sure whether Geronimo Allison should have a big season so someone can put together his highlight reel set to Sheppard’s “Geronimo,” or whether I want that song to stop being stuck in my head. 

Say Geronimo, say Geronimo.

Yeah, he can stay in Tier 6, that’d be fine with me. The other notable aspect of this tier is that you could have some fantastic fantasy team names if you draft Chris Godwin. It’s not often you can play off both ‘god’ and ‘win’ in the same name. 

Again, there will be at least one breakout season from the players in this tier, so grab a couple for your bench. Anthony Miller and DaeSean Hamilton should have more value in PPR formats, while guys like Robby Anderson and Marquez Valdes-Scantling seem more suited to a big-play, boom-or-bust WR3 role. 

41. Geronimo Allison, Packers
42. Anthony Miller, Bears
43. John Brown, Bills
44. Dede Westbrook, Jaguars
45. Robby Anderson, Jets
46. DaeSean Hamilton, Broncos
47. Chris Godwin, Buccaneers
48. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers

Fantasy Football Rankings 2019: Breakout WR candidates

This is the point of the tier-making that starts to differ wildly from site to site. Just understand that most of these guys are deep on your bench, at least in standard leagues. That means that if you like covering your bye weeks on draft day, this might be where that coverage comes from. Tier 7 will also be the place where a few of your late-round fliers originate. A year ago, Kenny Golladay and Calvin Ridley were way down here. So, find this year’s versions of them and you should be all set. (If we’re taking bets on this year’s versions of Golladay and Ridley, we’d go with Zay Jones and Christian Kirk.)

As with the tier above, a couple of these guys will break out. Some will do nothing. You're drafting them as backups, so the opportunity cost isn't high. Getting one or two lotto tickets from this tier is recommended.

49. Willie Snead, Ravens
50. David Moore, Seahawks
51. Michael Gallup, Cowboys
52. Marquise Goodwin, 49ers
53. Tre’Quan Smith, Saints
54. Dante Pettis, 49ers
55. Christian Kirk, Cardinals
56. Keke Coutee, Texans
57. Dontrelle Inman, Patriots
58. Jamison Crowder, Jets
59. Zay Jones, Bills
60. Chris Hogan, Panthers
61. Equanimeous St. Brown, Packers
62. Kenny Stills, Dolphins
63. Eli Rogers, Steelers
64. Marqise Lee, Jaguars
65. DeVante Parker, Dolphins

Fantasy Football 2019: Watch-list WRs

Maybe you went to high school with Cole Beasley and you draft him every year, but otherwise, Tier 8 is a list of names that will likely start the season on the waiver wire. I guess you could stash Emmanuel Sanders in hopes that his busted Achilles' is unusually easy to recover from, but don’t count on it. Otherwise, these are good names to know in case they’re staring at a role increase a few weeks into the season. They also might just never become that relevant. 

66. Emmannuel Sanders, Broncos
67. Adam Humphries, Titans
68. Ted Ginn, Jr., Saints
69. DK Metcalf, Panthers
70. Demarcus Robinson, Chiefs
71. Paul Richardson, Redskins
72. Mohamed Sanu, Falcons
73. Curtis Samuel, Panthers
74. Antonio Callaway, Browns
75. Nelson Agholor, Eagles
76. Cole Beasley, Bills
77. Quincy Enunwa, Jets

Fantasy Football 2019: Deep WR Sleepers

These players deserve to be noted for anyone that plays in a deeper league. But any standard-league owners can mostly forget about these players. They’re unlikely to ever become more relevant than a bye-week flex play off the wire, and some would need their development to come ahead of schedule to make a difference this year. The two possible exceptions are Robert Foster and Donte Moncrief, who could seize the No. 2 jobs in Buffalo and Pittsburgh, respectively, if things broke their way.

78. N’Keal Harry, Patriots
79. Josh Doctson, Redskins
80. Chad Williams, Cardinals
81. A.J. Brown, Titans
82. Mecole Hardman, Chiefs
83. Deebo Samuel, 49ers
84. Parris Campbell, Colts
85. Chris Conley, Jaguars
86. Marquise Brown, Ravens
87. Taylor Gabriel, Bears
88. Randall Cobb, Cowboys
89. Corey Coleman, Giants
90. Terry McLaurin, Redskins
91. Allen Hurns, Cowboys
92. Robert Foster, Bills
93. Donte Moncrief, Steelers
94. JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Eagles

Billy Heyen