The NCAA Tournament continues with 32 teams in the second round despite many brackets being busted after Arizona's and Virginia's stunning first-round losses.
Friday night we saw a team with a 2.05% win probability actually pull it off when UMBC upset Virginia. What are the updated tournament odds after a No. 1 seed is out so early? AccuScore has simulated all possible matchups thousands of times and come up with probabilities for each remaining team to proceed to each round and win the national championship.
MARCH MADNESS: NCAA Tournament scores, schedule
What are the odds that your team will win it all? These probabilities will be updated after each round of the NCAA Tournament. Visit AccuScore for more in-depth analysis and game predictions to help you make your picks throughout the tournament.
2018 NCAA Tournament odds
| Team | Seed | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final 4 | Final | Champ |
| Villanova | 1 | 81.71% | 62.60% | 37.96% | 21.93% | 13.14% |
| Cincinnati | 2 | 60.61% | 39.55% | 30.86% | 19.38% | 10.94% |
| Michigan State | 3 | 84.76% | 48.08% | 31.53% | 16.80% | 9.75% |
| Duke | 2 | 78.40% | 43.01% | 26.79% | 14.76% | 8.37% |
| Purdue | 2 | 66.14% | 40.28% | 22.98% | 13.07% | 7.61% |
| Tennessee | 3 | 58.37% | 30.28% | 21.18% | 12.32% | 6.22% |
| Gonzaga | 4 | 63.97% | 43.31% | 24.39% | 12.83% | 6.17% |
| Kentucky | 5 | 57.36% | 46.37% | 22.46% | 12.30% | 5.89% |
| North Carolina | 2 | 72.45% | 39.85% | 22.45% | 11.56% | 5.49% |
| Michigan | 3 | 51.72% | 29.07% | 16.75% | 8.78% | 4.20% |
| Texas Tech | 3 | 53.40% | 28.39% | 13.54% | 6.49% | 3.17% |
| Kansas | 1 | 68.97% | 34.43% | 14.70% | 6.72% | 3.07% |
| Auburn | 4 | 57.02% | 32.54% | 13.67% | 5.82% | 2.69% |
| Florida | 6 | 46.60% | 22.07% | 9.81% | 4.48% | 2.02% |
| West Virginia | 5 | 72.11% | 26.70% | 10.92% | 4.53% | 1.91% |
| Xavier | 1 | 60.00% | 23.07% | 10.00% | 4.28% | 1.79% |
| Nevada | 7 | 39.39% | 16.54% | 9.14% | 4.01% | 1.44% |
| Houston | 6 | 48.28% | 21.61% | 10.20% | 4.04% | 1.43% |
| Clemson | 5 | 42.98% | 21.32% | 7.22% | 2.65% | 1.02% |
| Ohio State | 5 | 36.03% | 18.89% | 7.72% | 2.96% | 1.01% |
| Loyola (IL) | 11 | 41.63% | 13.64% | 7.50% | 2.98% | 0.92% |
| Florida State | 9 | 40.00% | 14.73% | 4.92% | 1.53% | 0.41% |
| Texas A&M | 7 | 27.55% | 9.48% | 3.57% | 1.10% | 0.30% |
| Alabama | 9 | 18.29% | 8.63% | 2.47% | 0.73% | 0.22% |
| Seton Hall | 8 | 31.03% | 11.72% | 2.93% | 0.73% | 0.20% |
| Rhode Island | 7 | 21.60% | 5.66% | 2.11% | 0.62% | 0.18% |
| Kansas State | 9 | 84.87% | 27.76% | 4.87% | 1.13% | 0.17% |
| Butler | 10 | 33.86% | 9.26% | 2.13% | 0.50% | 0.14% |
| Buffalo | 13 | 42.64% | 24.64% | 3.97% | 0.80% | 0.09% |
| Syracuse | 11 | 15.24% | 3.25% | 1.05% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| Marshall | 13 | 27.89% | 2.08% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| UMBC | 16 | 15.13% | 1.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
March Madness predictions
UMBC was naturally a long shot to beat Virginia, but but winning the whole tournament would be a much, much bigger upset as the probability for that is close to 0 percent.
Best odds to advance to the Sweet 16
Villanova, Duke, Kansas State, Michigan State, North Carolina and West Virginia all have better than a 70-percent chance to win in the second round. Kansas State was the biggest beneficiary of the first-round loss of Virginia, but Kentucky also benefited from No. 4 seed Arizona losing in the same region. The Wildcats now have a 22-percent chance of reaching the Final four.
Tough second round, but potential for a long ride
Houston, Nevada and Florida are underdogs in their next games. However, they have about 10-percent probability to reach the Final Four, which is much higher than other teams with similar Round 2 win probabilities. Also, Cincinnati will have a tough opponent in Nevada, but its chances to make the Final Four are better than 30 percent now with Virginia out of the way.
High seeds teams with low probabilities
There is already one No. 1 seed to exit the tournament, and most likely there will be more leaving soon. Xavier is seeded No. 1 in the West, but its chances to make the Final Four are only about 10 percent; that's the same win probability for No. 6 Houston or No. 5 West Virginia.
Updated odds to win 2018 NCAA Tournament
The top teams to win the NCAA Tournament based on AccuScore simulations are Villanova and Cincinnati. Both have better than a 10-percent probability to cut down the nets in San Antonio. Michigan State and Duke could meet in the Midwest region, and whichever team wins has a good shot to the championship as well at 8-9 percent. So far, AccuScore's Final Four picks are still in tact.
AccuScore will update these NCAA Tournament predictions after each round.