March Madness 2018: Final NCAA Tournament bracket projections

March Madness has descended upon this college basketball-loving country, and Selection Sunday is finally here. Hallelujah, eh?

Sunday's final Field of 68 bracket projection includes stats and information nuggets for every single at-large team, with records and relevant stats from the Team Sheets the selection committee uses in the selection room. 

MARCH MADNESS: Printable NCAA Tournament bracket

Teams that have won automatic bids are in italics. All numbers (Pomeroy/RPI/KPI) are from the Team Sheets. 

Here's our final look at our latest 2018 March Madness bracket projection (All records and statistics are through Sunday afternoon's games.)

NCAA BRACKET BREAKDOWNS: 
East | South | Midwest | West

2018 NCAA Tournament bracket projections 

Projected No. 1 seeds: Virginia (ACC), Villanova (Big East), Kansas (Big 12), Xavier

Need to know: Virginia is locked into the No. 1 overall seed. The Cavaliers have 12 Q1 wins, only two losses and they're 15-1 in road/neutral contests, including wins at Duke and Miami. Villanova (18-3 road/neutral) erased any doubt of a spot on the top line with a Big East Tournament title, and with Xavier bowing out in the tournament semifinals, Villanova will be the No. 2 overall seed. Even though Kansas (13-3 road/neutral) has more losses than some of the teams on the 2/3 seed lines, the committee pretty clearly values elite-type wins, and none of the teams below them on this seed list come close to the Jayhawks' 21 combined Q1/2 victories. Xavier (11-4 road/neutral) could have erased any doubt about a No. 1 seed by reaching the Big East Tournament title game, but the Musketeers were upended by Providence in the semifinals. They have 15 combined Q1/2 wins, but only five of those are Q1. Will that survive a close comparison against North Carolina, a team with 13 Q1 wins but twice as many losses? We'll keep X on the top line.

NCAA BRACKET PICKS:
Bender (Virginia) | Birdsong (Arizona) | DeCourcy (Villanova) | Fagan (Villanova)

No. 2 seeds: North Carolina, Duke, Purdue, Cincinnati (American)

Need to know: North Carolina has an interesting resume; on one hand, the Tar Heels (13-7 road/neutral) have long had a stellar Q1 win total (finished at 14), outstanding metrics and strong schedule. Even though no other team comes close to those 14 Q1 wins, the Heels do have double-digit losses, including at home to Wofford, and that has to eliminate them from the top seed line, right? Duke's chances of climbing up to the No. 1 seed line ended with a loss to UNC in the ACC Tournament semifinals. The Blue Devils (11-6 road/neutral) have six Q1 wins, and five came away from home (neutral/non-con vs. Michigan State, Florida and Texas, road at Clemson and at Miami), and we know how much the committee loves wins away from home. Purdue (12-5 road/neutral) isn't taking a No. 1 spot away from anyone, without either the regular-season or tournament Big Ten titles. They're pretty locked into a No. 2 seed. Cincinnati (14-3 road/neutral) has a very solid resume, but the Bearcats don't have enough elite wins for that top seed line. They're right on the 2/3 cutline, though making the title game of the AAC Tournament probably keeps them as a 2.

No. 3 seeds: Michigan State, Tennessee, Arizona (Pac 12), Michigan (Big Ten)

Need to know: With Michigan State, it's relevant to look at the selection committee's Top-16 seeds reveal on Feb. 11. The Spartans (13-3 road/neutral) were 24-3 and fresh off a win vs. Purdue, but the committee only had them as the No. 11 overall seed. Since that time, they've played exactly one at-large team, and they lost to Michigan for the second time this year, by 11 points in the Big Ten Tournament. The lack of quality wins (only eight Q1/2) will be a seed-killer. For Tennessee (12-5 road/neutral), the Vols have a better non-con win (neutral vs. Purdue) than Auburn, and they have only one non-Q1 loss (at Georgia). Arizona (12-6 road/neutral) is a legitimate national title contender, regardless of its seed. The Wildcats only have one win against team that will be a decent seed (Texas A&M), but all five of their Q1 wins came away from home, and that will impress the committee. Feels like Michigan (12-6 road/neutral) has been done forever, right? But no team had a better finish than the Wolverines, who picked up six Q1/2 wins in their current final nine-game winning streak.

No. 4 seeds: Auburn, Wichita State, Gonzaga (WCC), West Virginia 

Need to know: Auburn (10-6 road/neutral) squandered a chance to make a run at the No. 2 seed line with an awful second-half performance in a loss to Alabama in the SEC Tournament; the Tigers' only non-Q1 loss was at South Carolina, and that's far from a bad loss. Wichita State has 14 combined Q1/2 wins and went 12-4 away from home this season, and it's worth noting that the Shockers' two worst losses by RPI/Team Sheets measures came against teams (SMU and Notre Dame) that were full strength before injuries smashed their metrics. Gonzaga (15-3 road/neutral) sure looks like a top-three seed when it comes to the eye test, but the reality of the Zags' resume is it includes just two wins against an at-large lock (Ohio State and Creighton) and a handful against bubble-type teams (Texas, Saint Mary's, Washington). This spot, on the No. 4 seed line, is almost certainly the Bulldogs' ceiling. The RPI does not like West Virginia (10-7 road/neutral) as much as the other metrics on the Team Sheets, which all have the Mountaineers in the Top 15, thanks largely to those eight Q1 wins — including a home win vs. Virginia — and seven Q2 wins. Their NC SOS (265), though, is not good.

No. 5 seeds: Kentucky (SEC), Texas Tech, Clemson, Ohio State

Need to know: Kentucky has seven wins against sure at-large teams — including West Virginia and Virginia Tech in non-con play — and a top-10 SOS (NC and overall). But the Wildcats are just 8-8 away from home and 5-8 in Q1 contests, which keeps them from the top four seed lines. Texas Tech is 7-8 in road/neutral games, but two of those six were doozies — at Kansas and at TCU. The Red Raiders are right on the edge of a 4/5 seed, and it's fair to wonder if the poor NC SOS (262) will be the difference. Clemson lost senior star Donte Grantham to a season-ending injury in late January; since then, the Tigers are 7-6, which is fine but not great. That, along with an 8-8 record away from home, likely keeps them beyond the top four seed lines and lower than their computer metrics probably indicate. Ohio State was 16-2 at home and 8-6 away from Columbus (and lost three times to a Penn State team that won't make the NCAA Tournament); don't be surprised to see the Buckeyes wind up on the 6 line.

No. 6 seeds: Houston, Florida, Arkansas, Miami

Need to know: Houston (11-6 road/neutral) has nice wins against Cincinnati, Arkansas, Wichita State (twice) and Providence, but the Cougars also have ugly losses to Drexel, and Tulane that will limit their seed ceiling. Florida (8-7 road/neutral) has a couple questionable losses (at home to Georgia and South Carolina, for example), but the Gators have nine Q1 wins—including Cincinnati and Gonzaga on a neutral court and road wins at Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri and Alabama — and that should more than balance out those Ls. Arkansas (8-9 road/neutral) did its best work at home — wins vs. Auburn, Tennessee and Texas A&M — and has a nice neutral-court non-conference against Oklahoma. Miami did some of its best work away from home, rolling up an 11-6 record in road and neutral games, including wins at North Carolina, Virginia Tech and N.C. State and a neutral-court win vs. Middle Tennessee.

No. 7 seeds: Texas A&M, TCU, Rhode Island, Seton Hall

Need to know: Texas A&M has a couple nice kicker wins — at Auburn and vs. West Virginia (neutral) — and 12 total Q1/2 wins; on the other hand, the Aggies have 12 losses and went just 7-9 away from home. TCU (6-8 road/neutral) has solid metrics, but the Horned Frogs struggled against some of the Big 12's best — they were swept in the regular season by Kansas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma, for example — and are just 8-7 since losing point guard Jaylen Fisher to injury. Seton Hall (7-8 road/neutral) rebounded from a rough mid-season stretch that saw the Pirates lose seven times in 10 games, winning four of their final five regular-season games, including Ws against Providence and Butler. Not long ago, Rhode Island (10-5 road/neutral) was cruising along and eyeing a top-three seed at 21-3, with wins against Seton Hall and Providence under its belt. But the Rams lost by 30 points at home to Saint Joseph's (no, really) and stumbled to the finish line with three losses in five games.

No. 8 seeds: Missouri, Providence, Virginia Tech, Nevada 

Need to know: Missouri (7-9 road/neutral) has Michael Porter, Jr. back, but the Tigers lost their only game with him in the SEC Tournament. With 10 Q1/2 wins and only questionable losses (Ole Miss and Illinois) but no glaring resume flaws, the Tigers should be fine. But this spot, on the 8-seed line, might be a bit high. In the Big East Tournament, Providence (8-9 road/neutral) picked up a comforting win against Creighton in overtime, and then picked up a massive win against Xavier in the semifinals. The Friars have home wins against Villanova and now two vs. Xavier, and the Ws against the Bluejays and Musketeers are their best away-from-home victories. Yep, those were important. Virginia Tech (7-7 road/neutral) could have squashed Notre Dame's hopes in the ACC Tournament, but the Hokies let a big lead slip away in a frustrating loss. Still, the Hokies have the best single resume win of any team — at Virginia — to go with home wins against top-five seeds Duke, North Carolina and Clemson. The computer metrics say that Nevada should be seeded higher than No. 8. I realize that. But the Wolf Pack (13-6 road/neutral) has only one win against an at-large team (at home vs. Rhode Island) and five losses to teams with zero chances of an at-large bid (San Francisco, UNLV, Wyoming and San Diego State twice). And we all saw what happened in the Mountain West Tournament, when Nevada fell behind SDSU by 30 points at halftime and never made a game of it. Ugly.

No. 9 seeds: Butler, Creighton, N.C. State, Kansas State

Need to know: Butler's resume has elite highlights, no doubt — home win vs. Villanova, neutral vs. Ohio State — but the Bulldogs have won just eight of their 20 Q1/2 games, and they're just 6-10 away from home. In its final 13 games heading into Selection Sunday, Creighton has only one win against an at-large-caliber team. Of course, that one was a doozy — at home against Villanova. Still, with a poor NC SOS (RPI 234) and only a 5-9 record away from home, the Bluejays seem destined for the 8/9 game, at best. N.C. State has a couple head-scratching losses this season (also: water is wet), but the Wolfpack has a couple really good wins, too (yep, still wet). Have to believe that wins like the one at UNC or vs. Arizona on a neutral court or at home against Duke will be enough to counteract the loss to Northern Iowa or the one at Georgia Tech or the one at home to UNCG (though it really, really helps that UNCG wound up winning the SoCon and claimed that league's auto bid). Kansas State (8-7 road/neutral) has an awful NC SOS (337) and went 0-6 vs. the top three teams in the Big 12 (Kansas, Texas Tech, West Virginia) in the regular season but is 9-2 against the other at-large/bubble-type teams in the conference (TCU, Baylor, Texas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

No. 10 seeds: UCLA, Alabama, Florida State, St. Bonaventure

Need to know: UCLA has a decent collection of solid wins — neutral vs. Kentucky, at Arizona, at USC — but five losses to teams on the wrong side of the at-large conversation will keep the Bruins (7-9 road/neutral) from a decent seed. The selection committee goes through what they call a "scrub," a process that basically is a deeper look at each team's resume. Alabama will benefit from a scrub, with those seven Q1 wins and four more Q2 wins; eight of those wins are against likely NCAA Tournament teams (including Auburn in the SEC Tournament), and it's hard to look at a resume like that and conclude the Crimson Tide (6-9 road/neutral) doesn't belong in the big dance. On the other hand … 15 losses. Only one team has ever received an at-large bid with 15 losses (Vandy, last year). Let's begin by pointing out that Florida State had an awful NC SOS (323) and went 7-9 away from home. That's … not great. But, the Seminoles have six Q1 wins — vs. UNC, Clemson and Miami at home, at Florida, Louisville and Virginia Tech. That's pretty solid. St. Bonaventure (12-6 road/neutral) feels like a team that will benefit from the cavalcade of losses some of these other at-large candidates are piling up. Beating Rhode Island in A-10 play was huge, to go along with away-from-home non-con wins against Syracuse, Maryland and Vermont. Also worth noting that two of the Bonnies' losses (Niagara and TCU) came without leading scorer Jaylen Adams (20.5 ppg).

No. 11 seeds: Texas, Oklahoma, Texas, Arizona State, USC, Davidson (A-10), Loyola-Chicago (MVC)

(* First Four teams)

Need to know: Any resume conversation about Oklahoma (5-11 road/neutral) has to start with the selection committee's Top-16 seeds reveal on Feb. 11. Even though the Sooners had lost six of eight at that point, they were still the No. 16 overall seed, based mostly on the strength of their six Q1 victories. Well, they still have the six Q1 wins (including KU at home, at Wichita State and at TCU), and if that was good enough for a No. 4 seed with eight losses on Feb. 11, surely that's good enough to still get an at-large bid with 13 losses on March 11, right? It's hard to know whether this will matter or not, but of Texas' 14 losses, four came in overtime (Duke, Gonzaga, Texas Tech and Baylor) and five others were by seven points or fewer. The selection committee tells us all that time that everything matters, that games in November and December count. Arizona State (7-7 road/neutral) will provide an excellent litmus test. The Sun Devils beat two possible No. 1 seeds, winning at Kansas — a herculean task for a non-conference opponent — and beat Xavier on a neutral court, and they also topped Kansas State and St. John's, before injuries derailed the Johnnies. Yes, they've faltered down the stretch, but does non-conference matter or not? We'll find out. A resume scrub isn't going to be favorable for USC (11-7 road/neutral); the Pac-12 has three other possible at-large teams (Arizona, UCLA and Arizona State) and the Trojans went 0-4 against those teams. Yeah. Their best wins are against bubble teams Middle Tennessee, Utah and New Mexico State. Yikes.

Rest of the bracket

(* First Four teams)

NCAA Tournament bubble teams

First four out ... 

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