The Final Four is set for the 2018 NCAA Tournament, but who will win the national championship?
No. 3 seed Michigan will face No. 11 Loyola-Chicago in the first semifinal Saturday night before No. 1 seeds Villanova and Kansas meet in the second semifinal. AccuScore has simulated those Final Four matchups and the possible national championship matchups thousands of times to calculate probabilities for each team to win the title Monday night in San Antonio.
MARCH MADNESS: NCAA Tournament scores, schedule
What are the odds that Loyola-Chicago can continue its Cinderella run, or that Villanova can win its second national championship in three years? The probabilities are below; visit AccuScore for more in-depth analysis and game predictions to help you make your Final Four picks.
2018 NCAA Tournament odds
| TEAM | FINAL FOUR | CHAMP |
| 1 Villanova | 70.34% | 48.97% |
| 3 Michigan | 55.48% | 25.89% |
| 1 Kansas | 29.66% | 14.21% |
| 11 Loyola (IL) | 44.52% | 10.92% |
FINAL FOUR: X-factors and how each team can win
Final Four predictions
When the NCAA Tournament started, Villanova was the favorite to win with better than an 11-percent win probability based on AccuScore simulations. At that stage, Michigan’s number was 3.3 percent and Kansas' only 2.8 percent, while Loyola-Chicago’s chances were around 0.3 percent.
During the tournament, Villanova’s and Kansas' chances have both increased nearly five times. Michigan’s win probability is now approximately nine times greater compared to start of the tournament, and Loyola's is about 30 times greater than at the start of the March Madness.
Updated odds to win NCAA Tournament
AccuScore simulations show Villanova as a clear favorite to win the 2018 NCAA Tournament. The Wildcats should beat Kansas easily and, if so, would be the clear favorite regardless of who they would face in the national championship.
Vegas odds have Villanova a bit over 50 percent (-110) probability to win the title, while Michigan (28.5 percent, +250), Kansas (22 percent, +350) and Loyola-Chicago (7.7 percent, +1200) are longer shots.
Loyola-Chicago has been an underdog in every game so far, and that won't change against Michigan, but a 45-percent win probability in the semifinal is quite a bit higher than the Ramblers' previous tournament games. In fact, only Loyola-Chicago provides real value for betting to win the tournament, despite the long odds.
If you want to simulate the games yourself, please check AccuScore's Bracketcaster.
AccuScore will update these NCAA Tournament predictions after each round.