Yes, Robert Helenius can beat odds, spring upset vs. Deontay Wilder in 2022 heavyweight boxing fight. Here's why...

Daniel Yanofsky

Yes, Robert Helenius can beat odds, spring upset vs. Deontay Wilder in 2022 heavyweight boxing fight. Here's why... image

On the hunt for heavyweight gold once again, Deontay Wilder is set to return to action on October 15. He faces Robert Helenius, a fighter also one step away from competing for a world title. 

Helenius is on a three-fight win streak. He recently beat Adam Kownacki via TKO twice to cement himself as a threat in boxing's heavyweight division. The first fight occurred inside Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, the home of his upcoming fight against Wilder. 

Wilder, a former WBC heavyweight champion, is coming off two losses in a row against Tyson Fury. That finished the trilogy between the two at 0-2-1 in favor of Fury. The Helenius bout will be his first since October 2021. Wilder believes he is rejuvenated and ready to take over the division again.

What kind of Wilder can we expect to see this time around? Will it be enough to take down Helenius?

The Sporting News’ Andreas Hale provided his expert prediction on how Wilder will win this fight.

But there are two sides to every story. SN's Daniel Yanofsky breaks down the work of Helenius to point out exactly why and how the Finnish fighter has what it takes to take down “The Bronze Bomber” in Brooklyn. 

MORE: All you need to know about Wilder vs. Helenius

Odds for Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius

According to Caesars Sportsbook, Wilder is the -700 favorite, while Helenius is the +500 underdog. 

In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Wilder is the -833 favorite, while Helenius is the +449 underdog. 

Helenius revels in the idea of being the underdog. 

“I like being the underdog. It wakes me up a little bit,” Helenius stated during a pre-fight press conference. “I know that I have to concentrate fully and be the best version of myself. Of course, there’s still some pressure, but that’s what comes with being in such an important fight."

Betting trends for Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius

  • Wilder by (T)KO: -350
  • Wilder by Decision: +600
  • Helenius by (T)KO: +800
  • Helenius by Decision: +1200
  • Wilder wins in round 1-3: +200
  • Wilder wins in round 4-6: +210
  • Wilder wins in round 7-9: +550 
  • Wilder wins in round 10-12: +1500
  • Helenius wins in round 1-3: +3500
  • Helenius wins in round 4-6: +3000
  • Helenius wins in round 7-9: +2800
  • Helenius wins in round 10-12: +3200 

MORE: How to bet on combat sports

Can Robert Helenius beat Deontay Wilder? 

There are a few factors that may be on Helenius’ side. The Sporting News looks into the physical and mental aspects of the fight against Wilder. 

Helenius has a +-3.3 +/- rating. That is ranked towards the bottom of active fighters. Helenius lands 26.1% of his shots. Wilder has a higher rating with a +5.1 +/- mark. He lands 34.3% of the time. With 41 wins via knockout, Wilder’s power is other-worldly. 

However, something that Helenius has over Wilder is the opponent connect percentage. Wilder’s opponents connect 29.3% of the time, while Helenius’ connect just 25.5% of the time. 

A key factor for Helenius, which he has stated time and time again, is volume. Helenius throws about 43.7 total punches per round. While he doesn’t throw around power shots left and right, his jabs (4.8 landed per round and a jab percentage of 57.9%) have impressed boxing fans. In the first Kownacki fight, Helenius landed 13 of 73 jabs, but in the second bout that increased to 48 connecting out of 175. His total punch connect percentage increased from the first to the second fight, from 21.5% to 35.2%. 

Looking back, Helenius landed 66 jabs against Gerald Washington and had a 41.6% connect rate (with 114 total shots). Wilder likes to reach for his perfect shot. If Helenius can be patient enough against a moving power puncher like Wilder, he may have an edge. 

Helenius has stated he has made tactical changes to his game plan heading into this fight. As a former sparring partner of Wilder’s, Helenius has the knowledge not many opponents have ever had against Wilder.

“Deontay and I know each other very well," Helenius stated at aforementioned press conference. "When we sparred he was preparing for a tall guy like me, while I was training for a very different kind of fighter. But some things do still get stuck with you during training. However the fight is much different than sparring.

“It’s tough to say if I felt Deontay’s power in sparring because of the headgear and bigger gloves. I think it’s more about his speed. Some people punch with a lot of force, but I think his best attribute is the explosiveness."

The mindset of the fighter is also something to consider.

Wilder is coming off two dangerous losses against Tyson Fury, where he was taken down several times. In the second contest of the trilogy, his corner threw in the towel for him to avoid damage. Wilder had almost considered retirement at one point.

At 38, Helenius has had to deal with a back injury for several years. However, “The Nordic Nightmare” has seemingly found the fountain of youth and has not been brought down since the Washington fight. Already a contender for the WBA heavyweight title, Helenius is motivated to continue his run. 

It is not hard to think that Wilder can win this fight. Bookmakers and several within boxing have made their minds up. Something we have learned in boxing, especially this year, is that the underdog always has a shot. Helenius is not your average fighter. With his beard intact (unless the New York State Athletic Commission has something to say about it, per Helenius), the “Viking” warrior is ready to outwork Wilder.

MORE: Boxing Schedule 2022: Date, division, location for upcoming fights

Depending on Wilder’s chin and what his mindset is like as the fight progresses, Helenius could make this a clinical masterpiece. 

Sporting News prediction: Helenius via TKO (round six)

When is Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius? 

  • Date: Saturday, October 15
  • Main card: 9 p.m. ET | 2 a.m. BST | 11 a.m. AEST
  • Main event: 12 a.m. ET | 5 a.m. BST | 2 p.m. AEST (approximate)

Wilder vs. Helenius takes place on October 15. The main card will start at 9 p.m. ET | 2 a.m. BST | 11 a.m. AEST. Wilder and Helenius should make their way to the ring around 12 a.m. ET | 5 a.m. BST | 2 p.m. AEST, depending on how long the undercard fights last. 

How to watch Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius?

  • Fox Sports
  • Traditional pay-per-view
  • FITE.tv
  • PPV.com

The Wilder vs. Helenius main card will air on Fox Sports PPV via Premier Boxing Champions. You can also view the fight via traditional PPV, FITE.tv, and PPV.com

You can use the Fox Sports app to watch the event. Viewers can stream through the Fox Sports app via Amazon Fire TV, Android TV, Apple TV, Roku, Xbox ONE, a laptop, or any mobile or tablet device. 

Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius PPV price: How much does the card cost? 

  • $74.99

The price of Wilder-Helenius will be the same as Andy Ruiz vs. Luis Ortiz: $74.99.

Wilder vs. Helenius fight card

  • Deontay Wilder vs. Robert Helenius; WBC heavyweight title eliminator
  • Caleb Planet vs. Anthony Dirrell; WBC super-middleweight title eliminator
  • Frank Sanchez vs. Carlos Negron; Heavyweights 
  • Gary Antonio Russell vs. Emmanuel Rodriguez; Bantamweights

Daniel Yanofsky