Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin have now fought 24 rounds and we are no closer to having a clear-cut winner. The record books will say differently considering that it was Canelo’s hand being raised on Saturday night as he was declared the victor by majority decision (114-114, 115-113, 115-113) in front of 21,965 fans at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. But listen to all of the surrounding conversations on social media and you will hear the term “robbery” loosely tossed around by both pundits and casual fans.
Conventional wisdom suggests that a third fight between the two fighters should take place as soon as possible. However, it is very unlikely that we’ll see a trilogy in the near future, or ever.
SIGN UP to watch the Joshua-Povetkin heavyweight title fight with DAZN
If you are Team Canelo, what do you have to gain? You escaped the first fight with a split draw thanks to a judge’s erroneous scoring and the rematch was a hotly-contested, nip-and-tuck affair that could have easily gone the other way. There’s a reasonable argument that this series could be 0-2 in favor of Golovkin.
As much as it sounds like the right thing to do, the reality is that Oscar De La Hoya and Golden Boy Promotions clearly want out of the GGG business. The negotiations for the rematch were extremely contentious due to Canelo’s failed drug test and Team Golovkin who demanded a bigger piece of the pie for another 12-round dance with boxing’s current biggest star. The buildup to their return bout was a mudslinging contest between the two sides and wasn’t necessarily fun to watch. For the most part, Canelo acquitted himself of any previous wrongdoing in the rematch, as he escaped with the WBA (Super), WBC, IBO, and vacant The Ring middleweight titles, and will go down as the man who ended GGG’s historic title reign at a middleweight division-record 20 defenses.
Canelo fought the fight that fans wanted to see by meeting Golovkin in the middle of the ring and engaging in a high-powered chess match for 36 minutes. He did everything in his power to give the fans the fight they deserve. And nobody – except Team Canelo – woke up Sunday feeling any better about what they witnessed inside of the squared circle.
ESPN’s Teddy Atlas and Stephen A. Smith went ballistic with their claims that Golovkin was robbed, with a significant amount of fight fans following suit. To be clear, there was no “robbery,” but a case can absolutely be made that Golovkin won both fights. If you are Team Canelo, do you really want to subject yourself to this again?
There is danger in a third fight with Golovkin and, if you are on the business side of things, you’d prefer to not subject your fighter to another 12 rounds of scrutiny. Nor would you be interested in being mentally worn down by another contentious build to the third fight.
Also, wouldn’t it be nice to be the fan favorite again? It’s a minor detail, but Canelo has lost fans to GGG over the course of the past year. On Saturday night, there was a hefty contingent of Mexican fans cheering for Golovkin. Certainly, after how this fight played out, even more fans will side with Golovkin. It’s not something that will make or break a third fight, but it is worth mentioning.
Being the bigger star gives Canelo more options. Rather than clash with GGG for a third time, the Mexican can look to fight somebody like David Lemieux, who scored a devastating first-round knockout on the undercard. Or, you begin working your way to an all-Mexican throwdown with Jaime Munguia, who ravaged Brandon Cook in the co-main event. Maybe you turn your attention to the winner of October’s Billy Joe Saunders and Demetrious Andrade showdown and aim to unify the middleweight titles. There are also fighters such as Daniel Jacobs and Jermall Charlo frothing at the mouth for a fight with Canelo.
All of those fights can be made without any of those opponents demanding a big piece of the pie. Initially, fight fans will be upset with the idea of going a different direction, but they will get over it. There’s also this looming narrative that both Canelo and GGG will no longer be fighting for HBO, but that part of the conversation can be tabled for the time being.
If you’re Team GGG, do you really want to subject yourself to another 12 rounds with Canelo Alvarez? Right now, Golovkin is fuming over not seeing his hand raised in victory. For the second time, GGG outlanded Canelo in a majority of the rounds (eight out of 12), yet still found himself on the wrong side of the judges’ decision.
When you really think about it, what can a 36-year-old Golovkin hope to gain with another fight? He’ll be another year older if the two meet and there appears to be evidence that the Kazakh fighter is slowing down. If nothing else, we know that the red-headed Mexican has neutralized the knockout machine over the course of 24 rounds. Meanwhile, Canelo, 28, is just now hitting his prime boxing years, which suggests that he is getting better with each fight.
More importantly, Team GGG has to wonder if they can ever win a fight on the scorecards in Las Vegas. He’s the victim of an erroneous 118-110 scorecard in the first fight. The scorecards for this fight were close, but there is curiosity surrounding the scoring of the 12th round for Canelo by judges Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld. Both scored it for Canelo while many media members and fight fans believed that GGG was the clear winner of the round. If Moretti and Weisfeld scored the final round 10-9 for GGG, we’d have another draw.
A draw would probably be fitting for the narrative that we all share regarding this extraordinarily-close series of fights. But maybe the real narrative is that GGG can’t win, no matter what he does. The only thing that he could do is knock Canelo out definitively, but neither fighter has come close to putting the other on the canvas after 72 minutes of battle.
At this point, what can GGG do any different than the first fight? Of course, he could go to the body more, but that was suggested for the rematch and, for whatever reason, GGG neglected to utilize his vaunted body assault against his foe.
Certainly, if there was a third fight, the negotiations wouldn’t be any easier. Golden Boy Promotions would be unwilling to give up any financial ground for the rematch considering that their fighter now holds the upper hand in the series. Of course, it would still be the biggest payday out there for Golovkin, but there’s little reason to believe that Canelo’s team would be willing to trot their fighter out there for the rematch on Cinco De Mayo weekend in Las Vegas.
Do they even want to fight Canelo in Vegas again? Things certainly haven’t gone their way in these past two fights. But you have to believe that Team Canelo holds all of the negotiating cards and will not acquiesce to GGG’s demands.
And back to this little thing about Alvarez and Golovkin being in the final fight of their HBO contracts.
According to sources, Canelo and GGG have fought out their last fight of their HBO deals and, if you’ve been paying attention, it doesn’t look like HBO is interested in being a juggernaut in boxing like they once were several years ago. With the likes of PBC/Showtime/Fox, DAZN and ESPN+ dangling big money and opportunity, there’s a chance that both Canelo and GGG could bolt for greener pastures on another network or streaming service.
If you’re GGG, do you really want to fight for HBO again? At worst, you have to believe that the company had hitched their wagon to the Canelo express. Golovkin won’t be pleased when he hears the broadcast commentary for the rematch, which clearly favored his opponent. At 36, why not head elsewhere? He’ll be paid handsomely for his efforts and will likely be the A-side in any fight that is made.
The reality is that there’s a lot more that goes into making a third fight than desire. To be clear, this doesn’t fall solely on the shoulders of Canelo and GGG. Both are competitors who are willing to fight anyone at any time. But business always gets in the way and has a knack for making things far more difficult than they should be. Boxing fans want a trilogy, but the politics will make it extraordinarily hard to pull off given the circumstances outlined in this column.
We should all remain hopeful that Canelo and GGG meet again, but don’t hang your hat on it.
