Mikaela Mayer vs. Alycia Baumgardner odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2022 boxing title fight

Daniel Yanofsky

Mikaela Mayer vs. Alycia Baumgardner odds, betting trends, predictions, expert picks for 2022 boxing title fight image

Inside the O2 Arena, Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall will fight to determine the undisputed middleweight champion. Outside of that fight, there will be another major title bout. Mikaela Mayer and Alycia Baumgardner fight for junior-lightweight gold on October 15. 

Mayer defends the WBO, IBF, and The Ring junior-lightweight titles, while Baumgardner defends the WBC and IBO titles. It is a Top Rank vs. Matchroom Boxing bout that features two hard-hitters in the prime of their career. There is a lot of tension in this fight, as both will look to one-up the other.

A 2014 National Golden Gloves Champion, Baumgardner made her debut in 2017. After losing to Christina Linardatou in 2018, she has won six straight. Baumgardner knocked Terri Harper out on her feet to win the WBC and IBO titles. She later beat Edith Soledad Matthysse to defend the belts.  

The 28-year-old believes the fight won’t last long. 

“She (Mayer) honestly doesn’t know what she’s got herself into fighting me… There is no doubt that I am the biggest pound-for-pound puncher in the women’s game – just ask Christina Linardatou or Terri Harper,” Baumgardner told Bad Left Hook. “Mikaela Mayer is next to find this out first hand. This fight won’t go past seven rounds.”

MORE: Sign up to watch Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall on ESPN+

A 2012 World Championships silver medalist, Mayer competed in the 2012 Olympics. Making her pro debut in 2017, Mayer beat Ewa Brodnicka in 2020 for the WBC title. She would beat Maiva Hamdouche in 2021 to win the IBF and The Ring titles. 

No matter what Baumgardner brings to the table, Mayer believes she has what it takes to take her down. 

“Baumgardner said she’s gonna ‘dog walk’ me, but we’ve never seen the dog in her. She didn’t have that heart, she didn’t bite down and take it to Matthysse… That shows me that Baumgardner likes her space,” Mayer told The Ring. “She likes to be in her comfort zone. What happens when someone takes her out of that comfort zone, like we've seen against [Christina] Linardatou? Alycia Baumgardner is still very one-dimensional and if she can’t land that big right hand, she doesn’t have anything else for me. I’m going to press her and expose that side of her.”

The Sporting News offers our insight on how the upcoming fight will play out and takes a look at the best betting options.

Betting odds for Mikaela Mayer vs. Alycia Baumgardner

Per the Caesars Sportsbook, Mayer is the -280 favorite, while Baumgardner is the +230 underdog. 

In Canada, per Sports Interaction, Mayer is the -277 favorite, while Baumgardner is the +220 underdog. 

MORE: All you need to know about Shields vs. Marshall

Prop bets for Mayer vs. Baumgardner

  • Mayer via KO/TKO: +700 
  • Mayer via decision: -180
  • Baumgardner via KO/TKO: +450
  • Baumgardner via decision: +500 
  • Draw: +1400 

Expert prediction for Mayer vs. Baumgardner

This fight seems overlooked due to the star power and potential aggressive nature of Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall. That should change, however, as these two can throw with the best of them. Mayer vs. Baumgardner can potentially steal the show. 

Baumgardner has won seven pro fights via knockout, and three of her last six wins have come via the power punch. If she connects, she will hurt you. Terri Harper can attest to that. When Baumgardner took down Harper to win the WBC and IBO belt, she landed 29 shots, with 16 jabs. One devastating shot was all it took to stop Harper in her tracks. Baumgardner also limited her to 13 total strikes landed in four rounds. 

Against Edith Soledad Matthysse, Baumgardner landed 113 shots out of 315 thrown (35.9% accuracy rate, better than the Harper fight). With 37 jabs, Baumgardner was sharing the wealth. Like Harper, Baumbardner limited her opponent to single-digit shots landed throughout the bout.

Baumgardner is dangerous. That is the type of fighter Mayer likes. 

MORE: The case for 2- vs. 3-minute rounds in women's boxing

Mayer has won five fights via knockout but hasn't earned a knockout win since 2018. In her last five bouts, she has outlasted three opponents with a combined 38 wins via knockout. When facing the top punchers in boxing, Mayer has been known to adapt and survive. Her footwork is also impeccable. 

When she beat Ewa Brodnicka for the WBO title, Mayer landed 86 of 313 shots (27.5% connect mark). Mayer limited Brodnicka to single-digit shots landed all but one of the ten rounds the two competed in. Against Erica Farias, Mayer limited her to single-digit shots all but twice. Mayer landed 118 or 439 shots thrown, a 26.9% mark. 

Not impressed with those numbers? If that is the case, Mayer’s fight against Maiva Hamadouche opened fans eyes to what she can do. Mayer went toe-to-toe with the mighty Hamadouche, who landed 20+ shots in every round. In response, Mayer did the same. Mayer also landed 38 in round eight, the most out of both fighters. Mayer landed 239 of 594 shots landed (an impressive 40.2% connect rate, with Hamadouche at 26.7%). It was considered a Fight of the Year contender in 2021. 

If Baumgardner is closely associated with Hamadouche, Mayer proved she can hang with the best. That is what makes this matchup so fascinating. That is especially true, given how defensive-minded Mayer is. By pushing her opponent back and avoiding key shots, Mayer’s counter game is something to behold. 

MORE: Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall purse, salaries: 

The trash-taking between the two has been great on social media. Can they match that intensity in the ring? The Sporting News says yes, and Mayer as the favorite makes the most sense. It won’t be easy for Mayer. It may even be an all-out war. That is why we will watch with intrigue. In a battle between two solid competitors, Top Rank’s golden goose has a chance to outlast Baumgardner. 

Sporting News prediction: Mayer via unanimous decision (-180)

When is Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall? 

  • Date: Saturday, October 15 
  • Main card: 2 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. BST | 4 a.m. AEST 
  • Main event: 5:30 p.m. ET | 10:30 p.m. BST |  7:30 a.m. AEST (approximately) 

Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall takes place on October 15. The main card is expected to start at 2 p.m. ET | 7 p.m. BST | 4 a.m. AEST. Shields and Marshall should make their way to the ring around 5:30 p.m. ET | 10:30 p.m. BST | 7:30 a.m. AEST, depending on how long the undercard fights last. 

How to watch Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall

  • ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN Deportes
  • Sky Sports
  • FITE.tv

The Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall main card will be shown on ESPN, ESPN Deportes, and ESPN+. 

In the U.K. you can watch the fight card via Sky Sports. 

Other ways to watch Shields-Marshall is via FITE.tv and FOX (Australia)

MORE: Sign up to watch Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall on ESPN+

Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall price: How much does the card cost? 

You will need to pay $9.99 a month for a monthly subscription or an annual subscription for $99.99/yr. The Shields vs. Marshall fight won't be an additional cost to current ESPN+ subscribers. 

Product Prices
ESPN+ Monthly Subscription $9.99/month
ESPN+ Annual Subscription $99.99/year
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu Ad-Supported $13.99/month
The Disney Bundle w/Hulu No-Ads

$19.99/month

Claressa Shields vs. Savannah Marshall fight card

  • Claressa Shields (c) vs. Savannah Marshall (c) for the WBC, IBF, WBA, and WBO middleweight title
  • Mikaela Mayer (c) vs. Alycia Baumgardner (c) for the WBO, IBF, and WBC junior-lightweight titles
  • Caroline Dubois vs. Milena Koleva
  • Lauren Price MBE vs. Timea Belik
  • Karriss Artingstall vs. Marina Sakharov
  • Ebonie Jones vs. Vanesa Caballero
  • April Hunter vs. Erica Juana Gabriela Alvarez
  • Shannon Ryan vs. Buchra El Quaissi
  • Ginny Fuchs vs. Gemma Ruegg
  • Sarah Liegmann vs. Bec Connolly
  • Georgia O’Connor vs. TBA 

Daniel Yanofsky