Joshua vs. Povetkin: Experts pick a winner

Mark Ortega

Joshua vs. Povetkin: Experts pick a winner image

On Saturday, the biggest heavyweight title fight of the year helps kick off DAZN in the United States, as Anthony Joshua meets Alexander Povetkin in a unification fight. Can Povetkin, a former heavyweight titleholder, give Joshua his toughest fight since he vanquished Wladimir Klitschko last April?

Both fighters have tremendous pedigree, but Joshua is a -950 favorite over Povetkin, who is a +750 underdog on 5Dimes. He's just 28, while Povetkin is 39, and coming off a tougher-than- expected David Price bout, in which he climbed off the canvas to score the stoppage.

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Is Joshua due for a let-down performance with a Deontay Wilder clash seemingly at his fingertips?

Let's see what experts from across the sport have to say.

Raul Marquez, Showtime Sports commentator: Joshua by mid-rounds stoppage

Povetkin has a puncher’s chance, as he gets under shots and throws a sneaky left hook/overhand right, but that’s a long shot. Joshua should get him out of there before the ninth round.

Lance Pugmire, Los Angeles Times: Joshua KO10 Povetkin

Anthony Joshua is too young, too fast and too driven in this matchup against a mandatory foe whose best days are past him. The bout is mostly about promoter Eddie Hearn’s launch of his new partnering streaming venture DAZN, so expect Joshua to finish Povetkin in entertaining fashion in round 10.

Mike Coppinger, Ring Magazine: Joshua KO7 Povetkin

Alexander Povetkin is now 39 and he showed against David Price that his punch resistance isn't what it used to be. He's now facing the best heavyweight in boxing and one of the most dangerous punchers in the sport. The Russian will be at a tremendous size disadvantage and will be sitting there at the end of Joshua's long jab. The two-time drug cheat will hang tough, but the Brit will wear him down and score the knockout in the mid-rounds.

Rafe Bartholomew, Respect Box newsletter: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

Povetkin's multiple PED-violations make him anything but an icon for clean competition, but the Russian is still the second-best opponent AJ will have faced, by my count. The long odds against Povetkin make him worth a $20-bet, and the daredevil in me is even tempted to pick the upset, but it's a bridge too far with Joshua fighting in the U.K. There's pressure on Joshua to look for the KO, after adopting a more safety-first style in his two fights since beating Wladimir Klitschko, but I think he'll sense the power in Povetkin's left hook and decide to use his height and jab to control distance against the much shorter challenger.

Morgan Campbell, Toronto Star: Joshua TKO10 Povetkin

Joshua might be a little flawed, but Povetkin's age and size are bigger liabilities than any of AJ's shortcomings. If Povetkin were a master boxer, he might have a chance. But he's not. He's an old, smallish heavyweight facing a champ in his prime.

Patrick Connor, Boxing History: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

At 28, Joshua has age firmly on his side, in addition to physical dimensions, and AJ should be able to worry Povetkin enough to tame the Russian. At 39-years-old, fighting twice a year, with a history of injuries and known PED use, a big performance from Povetkin is unlikely. But he has proven durable, if nothing else, and will probably see the final bell, perhaps even offering a scare along the way.

Lee Wylie, TheFightCity.com: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

Povetkin will look to get close, work the body, and then quickly shift his attack upstairs. He will also be looking to counter AJ’s formidable jab with the overhand right, which can be kryptonite for upright boxers. But the champion and his trainer, Robert McCracken, will be fully aware of the challenger’s intentions. Watch for AJ to double up on the jab to push Povetkin back and keep him off balance. And if Povetkin tries to come in underneath AJ’s jab, expect him to be met with well-timed uppercuts or tied up. Povetkin is experienced and durable, so I doubt he gets stopped, but he will struggle mightily to close the gap and soon run out of ideas. The action will become increasingly one-sided thereafter.

Gilberto Manzano, Las Vegas Review-Journal: Joshua TKO8 Povetkin

Povetkin is a quality heavyweight, but he's not close to being on Joshua's level. Expect a dominant performance from the unified champion.

Rich Marotta, longtime boxing broadcaster: Joshua KO5 Povetkin

AJ is too young, too good with a varied, powerful attack. Even on his long-ago best day, Povetkin doesn’t threaten Joshua.

Anson Wainwright, Ring Magazine: Joshua TKO7 Povetkin

The younger, fresher, bigger man has too much for the aging former champ. Will have to be careful early on, but wears down the Russian for the stoppage by the mid rounds.

Bart Barry, 15Rounds.com: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

Povetkin has talent aplenty, and in a smaller, more-American era of heavyweights, he might have been elite. But Joshua is elite in this era. There's little chance Povetkin would have had this chance were he a true threat. Joshua will be too big and too good.

Tom Gray, Ring Magazine: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

Because of all the hoopla that has surrounded a proposed Anthony Joshua-Deontay Wilder bout, there seems to a feeling out there in Twitterverse that neither will lose before it happens. History has shown us that this is a very dangerous place to be. Povetkin is a quality heavyweight with a strong amateur foundation and he’s as hard as nails. This is not the type of opponent that Joshua can take chances with and he would be wise to box smart. Robert McCracken is a very intelligent coach and, therefore, I expect Joshua to box off the shorter man and slowly wear him down. It’ll be a similar job to what the Englishman did on Joseph Parker back in March. One mistake and Joshua could find himself looking up at the lights. I think the champion wins by wide points decision.

Carlos Acevedo, Hannibal Boxing: Joshua TKO8 Povetkin

If Anthony Joshua was looking to avoid a rumble (as Deontay Wilder feverishly believes), he certainly could have chosen an easier patsy than Alexander Povetkin. Not only is Povetkin a solid perennial contender (and, like Joshua, an Olympic gold medalist) but he has also tested positive for PEDs twice—which means he remains, potentially, more than just a surface threat in the ring. Before his donnybrook against Wladimir Klitschko last year, Joshua was a seek-and-destroy juggernaut whose ruinous m.o. recalled the last heavyweight wrecking machine of the modern era: “Iron” Mike Tyson. But his 2017 struggle against Klitschko—in which he rallied from a sixth-round knockdown to score a rousing stoppage—seems to have left him somewhat shy. Against late substitute Carlos Takam, Joshua was leisurely en route to a 10th-round TKO, and against Joseph Parker, he was listless. That sort of lethargy generated little blowback against Parker, a man whose strategy revolves around hearing the final bell and hoping for the best; but a casual pace against Povetkin means “Sasha” will be allowed, to an extent, to execute his typical game plan. Povetkin likes to feint, work his way in behind his jab, and rip shots to the body. 

On the outside, he is willing to wait for openings to drop his overhand right. Although Povetkin, 39, is past his peak, he remains a possible lesson in the miscalculation of the risk-reward system so important to contemporary prizefighters. General know-how is at a premium in the heavyweight division, and Povetkin, whose only loss was a lopsided decision to Klitschko in 2013, is both experienced and capable. Still, Joshua has every conceivable advantage going into this fight, and his uppercut is the perfect weapon to catch Povetkin leaning in. If Joshua hurts Povetkin, he will have a chance to show his finishing touch in the mid-to-late rounds. Joshua should stop Povetkin somewhere around the 8th.

Cliff Rold, Boxingscene: Joshua TKO9 Povetkin

Joshua is too big, too young, and too good for Povetkin. Povetkin struggled to land against Klitschko and still fights to straight up. At age 39, this could well be his first stoppage defeat.

David Avila, The Sweet Science: Joshua UD12 Povetkin

Anthony Joshua will power through the durable Alexander Povetkin to win by decision. Youth prevails over experience in this heavyweight clash.

Carl Moretti, VP of boxing operations at Top Rank: Joshua TKO9 Povetkin

Joshua is just too young and too good.

Robert Morales, SoCal News Group: Joshua by mid-rounds KO

Joshua is just a cut above Povetkin.

Mark Ortega