Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse prediction: Betting odds & prop bets for 2024 boxing title fight

Daniel Yanofsky

Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse prediction: Betting odds & prop bets for 2024 boxing title fight image

Claressa Shields is ready for a new challenge. The two-division undisputed champion competes at home in Michigan, headlining at Little Caesars Arena against WBC heavyweight champion Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse on July 27. The fight airs on DAZN. 

Shields (14-0) is the undisputed middleweight champion and previously held all the gold at super middleweight and super welterweight. She has the record for becoming the fastest to win titles in two and three divisions.

The 29-year-old two-time Olympic gold medalist also competes for the PFL. She is a trailblazer in women’s boxing and looks to enhance her already-set legacy by becoming a champion at the heavyweight level. She believes it is the best challenge for her.

"When we had the girls at heavyweight, they’re like, ‘Claressa’s too small for us, and we’re too strong for her, we’re too big for her.’ And I was just like, ‘Well, maybe, maybe not.’" Shields said via DAZN. "So that’s why we went there to go for a fourth division. It’s great to have a champion (Joanisse) who holds the belt, and to take her belt and become the new heavyweight champion. 

WATCH: Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse, live on DAZN

“It’s something I’ve never experienced and never thought about until now. Hey, we’re just going for greatness once again." 

Lepage-Joanisse (7-1) is on a four-fight win streak. The Canadian just won the WBC title after challenging for it in 2017. She looks to use her experience to halt Shields’ momentum. 

Who will emerge victorious? The Sporting News provides odds and a final prediction for this world title fight.

Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse odds

Per the DraftKings Sportsbook, Claressa Shields is the -3000 favorite, while Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse is the +1000 underdog.

Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse prop bet picks

Prop bet picks are not available at the moment.

Claressa Shields vs. Vanessa Lepage-Joanisse prediction

Shields has fought for gold since 2017, making her the more experienced fighter. It is also a homecoming fight for Shields, with the crowd ready to be firmly behind her.

Can Lepage-Joanisse spoil her moment, or is Shields inevitable?

Shields has a +/- of 14.6, ranked first compared to all active female fighters. She throws 52.1 total punches per round and lands 16.9 per round (ranked sixth and third). While she has limited knockout wins (two), Shields lands a power connect percentage mark of 42.5%, third amongst active fighters.

Against Savannah Marshall, Shields landed 175 of 480 shots (36.5%). She landed over 20 shots three times, mainly early in the fight. Against Maricela Cornejo, Shields landed 124 of 485 shots (25.6%) and landed single-digit shots only once. She refused to give Cornejo any momentum, as she didn't land one double-digit shot in the fight. 

Lepage-Joanisse also has two knockout wins but in an elevated division. When she won the WBC title against Abril Vidal, Lepage-Joanisse had an edge when the fight was in the center of the ring. Playing close to the vest, the Canadian can punish an opponent on the inside. One fault against her is that she got caught with big shots right before almost every round ended. However, she persevered. 

MORE: Claressa Shields out to conquer heavyweight challenge in Detroit

Will Lepage-Joanisse be able to connect at all against Shields? Shields’ opponents land the least total shots against her, averaging 6.3 punches. That is the best defensive mark in boxing. 

Power doesn’t go away, but Shields’ cardio will be something to monitor. If she does land power shots, specifically relying on her jabs that can push Lepage-Joanisse back, she can neutralize the champion. It isn’t expected the fight will end via knockout, but Shields should put on a masterclass performance against Lepage-Joanisse and win gold.

Sporting News prediction: Shields via unanimous decision

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Daniel Yanofsky