Canelo vs. GGG 2 predictions: boxers & experts pick a winner

Mark Ortega

Canelo vs. GGG 2 predictions: boxers & experts pick a winner image

As soon as the Canelo Alvarez-Gennady Golovkin rematch was cemented for Sept. 15, fight fans, media members and boxers themselves made their predictions.

But now that we truly have an understanding about the bad blood between the two, has it made you change your prediction? Sporting News asked esteemed members of boxing media, some fighters and industry execs who they expect to win Saturday night. Will Canelo clear all doubts and cement his fighting legacy? Or will GGG convincingly score that emphatic victory — something that he failed to do last year? Here’s what everyone had to say.

Lance Pugmire, Los Angeles Times: Golovkin UD12 Canelo

I like Golovkin to win this rematch. I just feel like Gennady has brought so much pent-up tension to this fight based on what’s happened and losing basically a $20 million payday in May and feeling that Canelo Alvarez has quote-unquote “wronged boxing” by testing positive for a banned substance. And let’s be honest, Golovkin is 36-years-old. It’s the defining fight of his career. He’s worked all his life to have a showcase fight like this and I believe on this stage he’s going to be his best and win the fight. I think it goes the distance but Golovkin is going to prevail eight rounds to four.
 

Martin Rogers, USA TODAY: Canelo by decision

I’ve gone back and forth on this a number of times. I’m leaning slightly towards Alvarez. It’s not really about him being a younger fighter. I’m not convinced what’s worth a year to Alvarez is worth four years to Golovkin. But I think perhaps he will have learned more from the first fight and evolved a little bit more. He definitely has a point to prove. He has an anger within him and has his nose put out of joint by what Golovkin and Abel Sanchez have said. I think these things have sort of chipped away at him and I think he’s been able to channel it in the right away. I think he’s hurt a little bit by the fact Mexican fans have edged a bit towards Golovkin’s side. I think it will be a close fight but I give Canelo a slight edge. Canelo by decision or by mistake. I don’t think either guy will steamroll through the other, but I do think there’s a chance later on in the fight for one guy to punish a mistake. But I’m leaning towards Canelo by decision.

Mike Coppinger, RingTV: Canelo SD12 Golovkin

Canelo swept the final three rounds on my card during their first meeting, and his increased aggression as the fight waned on was just what he needed. I expect a far more violent affair, and Canelo’s superior movement and counter-punching ability should lead him to victory, albeit one shrouded in controversy.

Raul Marquez, Showtime Sports: Golovkin by decision

GGG is just stronger, bigger, and more powerful. Canelo felt it last time. I’m looking for GGG turn it up sooner. GGG by decision.

Teddy Atlas, ESPN: Canelo by decision

You have so many things to look at. The age of Golovkin, he got a year older. He looked like he was sliding or dissipating a little bit, and now he’s a year older. Does that bode well for him? And you’re looking at two different bodies when talking about Canelo. The first fight he’s supposed to be the smaller guy and looks like the bigger guy. This time he looks like the smaller guy. What happened? Plus, he got suspended for PEDs. So you don’t have to be The Amazing Kreskin to figure out, something might have been going on here. You want to buy into the tainted Mexican beef, alright. I think with his money you’d buy a couple cases of kobe beef and you avoid that problem. But whatever, I have no proof either way. I just know what my eyes tell me. But you got one guy who is smaller, the other guy who is older, and you also have the smaller guy being inactive for a year because of this. The other guy took a tuneup, does that play into the picture? At the end of the day, I’m gonna go with Canelo. I’m gonna say in the first fight he went in there and spent the first part of the fight surviving. I’m gonna say he went in not knowing if he belonged at that weight in that class. A lot of people didn’t think he did. It took him the fight to figure out, ‘Hey, I can handle this.’ You know how important it is to have that information in your mind and your heart? It’s confidence, belief, experience. I think that’s going to bode well for him.

Shane Mosley, former world champion: Golovkin by decision

I gotta go with GGG on this, but Canelo looks sharp.

Dylan Hernandez, Los Angeles Times: Golovkin by disputed decision

I scored the first fight for Alvarez and see a similar fight. Officially however, I think the judges will give it to Golovkin by a disputed decision. I think that keeps the May rematch in play and I’m guessing all parties here would like to protect that May date so this kind of accomplishes that. Not to say outside influences will be a factor. But I think it will be a fairly similar. Canelo looks a little lighter so maybe it will be a slightly exaggerated version of the first fight. He might be slighter faster, a little sharper but maybe when he gets hit it will rock him a little bit more. In the end, it will be scored more or less the same and will be a toss-up fight.

Dan Rafael, ESPN: Golovkin by decision

I picked GGG in the first fight, I thought he won the first fight and I see no reason to change. I like GGG on a decision in another good, probably competitive fight. I still think he’s the better fighter.

Carl Moretti, VP of boxing operations at Top Rank: Canelo UD12 Golovkin

I’m picking Canelo for two reasons – the fight is in Las Vegas and youth will prevail.

Gilbert Manzano, Las Vegas Review Journal: Golovkin TKO10 Canelo

Golovkin is eight years older, but Alvarez is coming off a one-year layoff and has a lot of anger toward his opponent. If a brawl breaks out, that plays in Golovkin's favor.

Nonito Donaire, former world champion: Canelo by decision

It’s a tough close fight but I think Canelo has a lot of technical skills. I think that he’s a lot faster, a lot smarter. But again, Golovkin is a really tough guy. He can make things happen at any moment in time, especially the way he fights. I give Canelo the nod in this one. I think that he’s more technical and he gained a lot of experience in the last fight.

Robert Morales, SoCal News Group: Golovkin UD12 Canelo

I am picking GGG by unanimous decision, though it would not surprise me if he stops Canelo inside the distance. I think Canelo is going to fight GGG more this time, and that will result in a clearer victory for GGG, who I had winning the first fight.

Tom Gray, RingTV: Golovkin UD12 Canelo

The early rounds of the first fight were tight, then Golovkin dominated the middle sessions. Intrinsically, Canelo knew that he needed to do something and came on brilliantly in the championship rounds. Regardless of the finale, however, the consensus is that Canelo lost the draw. This time, I expect the Mexican star to take more chances early in an attempt to exact a toll on Golovkin. But that might come back to haunt him. GGG is bulletproof and his engine is incredible. A fast start means a slow finish for Canelo, and I think it will be Golovkin getting off the better work down the stretch. The pound-for-pound No. 1 might even secure victory with a knockdown or two.

Carlos Acevedo, Hannibal Boxing: Canelo SD12 Golovkin

Rarely do so many variables materialize between (almost) immediate rematches. Delayed or belated encores, such as Leonard-Hearns II, Chavez-Taylor II, and, most notoriously, Hopkins-Jones Jr. II, accumulated years of exigencies, but Alvarez-Golovkin II, as fresh as it is, arrives with plenty of asterisks. First, Golovkin is now 36 and has passed the age when pressure fighters begin to break down. Second, while Golovkin was facing live fire against a woefully overmatched Vanes Martiroysan three and a half months ago, Alvarez has not gloved up in over a year. That kind of inactivity is no aid in facing the most dangerous middleweight in the world.

Of course, the biggest X-factor here is the fact that Alvarez twice flunked PED tests, forcing the cancellation of this fight, which was originally scheduled for May. No one knows how that bold fact will affect the outcome on Saturday night. If the first fight was a pick ‘em affair, the rematch seems shrouded in mystery. Even if Golovkin is only 85 percent of what he once was, the ramrod jab, the methodical yet aggressive style that sometimes verges on plodding, the thudding left hook to the body, and the firepower are still more than enough to keep Alvarez on the defensive. Even so, despite lucking out on the scorecards against Golovkin last year, Alvarez remains younger and faster, and he is also the more versatile fighter, capable of leading and countering with equal skill. Between spells languishing on the ropes, Alvarez scored well when he opened up with pinpoint shots and kept Golovkin at long range. His questionable stamina, which often translates into an average workrate, is likely something Team Canelo has tried to improve coming into this bout. If so, Alvarez should be able to squeak by via a split decision.

Jorge Arce, former world champion: Canelo UD12 Golovkin

I think that Golovkin is very strong, his punches and Canelo is always in danger. But I think Canelo’s boxing intelligence is better. I think Canelo is too fast, too intelligent and will win a unanimous decision.

Lee Wylie, The Fight City: Canelo by controversial decision

In the first clash, GGG walked straight through Canelo’s head shots, but he tended to back off whenever Canelo landed a decent body shot. If Canelo can target the midriff more often, he could wear GGG down and potentially stop him (yes, I'm deadly serious). I also believe GGG is going to be more aggressive, perhaps even a tad bit reckless, and this may lead to more counter-punching opportunities for Canelo.

That being said, I honestly don’t know what to expect from Canelo. He has, after all, been out of action for a full year, and his body looks noticeably leaner, which suggests more emphasis has been placed on mobility and conditioning this time around. But if Canelo has inadvertently forfeited the physical strength necessary to be able to stand his ground and command GGG’s respect—something even master boxer Pernell Whitaker was forced to do against certain opponents—he might use up more energy trying to keep GGG at bay than he otherwise would.

GGG can’t keep letting Canelo escape to his left like he did when they last fought, and he must, at least to some degree, disregard Canelo’s head and focus more on hitting the body (or whatever is available) when he has him against the ropes or in a corner. GGG has shown one or two signs of decline lately, but if he can make these adjustments and push the pace behind his jab again, he will outwork Canelo and leave no doubt in the judges’ minds as to who the winner is.

Norm Frauenheim, The Ring: Golokvin UD12 Canelo

Golovkin by a 116-112 score. I see it as pretty much the same fight but there are two different judges and I think this time they will get it right.

George Willis, New York Post: Canelo SD12 Golovkin

I just think Canelo has a little more to his game in him. He’s been in there with him one time. I don’t think he’s afraid of Golovkin’s punches. I think he will be more active than Gennady will be. He took a couple hard shots in that first fight so I think he can take his punch. I think he’s a little better boxer all around and I think that maybe gets him the decision. It might be kind of tough because there could be a little bit of bias in favor of Gennady because he got screwed last time.

Keith Idec, Boxingscene: Golovkin SD12 Canelo

We’re going to have controversy for sure, I think, because it should be a very close, competitive fight. Maybe a little more aggression from Canelo, but a similar fight with rounds that are difficult to score. I think the judges are better for this fight — Steve Weisfeld is one of the best judges in boxing. But I think with the competitive nature of the two guys, there’s not much separating them. I don’t think there will be much to separate them on the scorecards after 12 rounds. I don’t see a knockout for either guy. I don’t think Canelo will be reckless in the fight. While he’s angry at GGG, I don’t think he will fight reckless or dumb. I wouldn’t be surprised at a split decision either way.

Marcos Villegas, Fight Hub TV: Canelo SD12 Golovkin

I think it’s still going to be a super close fight. But given Canelo is a lot younger and is still coming into his prime, and seeing that he has a lot more he has to work with in terms of fighting this fight, in terms of adjustments, I tend to favor him because of the speed factor. To look at Gennady’s career, the fighters that have given problems are those that moved, that had a little bit of speed. We saw in the first fight that speed did give him a little bit of trouble. And looking at Canelo’s physique, he has worked on speed. It’s really tough to pick because Gennady is the better boxer of the two. But age could creep up on him at any moment. I want to lean towards a split decision for Canelo, but I could see Gennady totally dominating and winning the way many people believed he did the first time.

Anson Wainwright, RingTV: Canelo TKO10 Golovkin

I had GGG winning the first fight 8-4, Canelo won the first two rounds and the last two, and GGG won everything in the middle. I favored Canelo when they were scheduled to fight in May. I’m not sure how a year’s inactivity may affect Canelo. Golovkin has the one fight against Martirosyan and that was without too much coming back so both are well rested since their last battle. I’m a huge advocate of Golovkin and witnessed him train in Big Bear in 2011, which was a real eye-opener. However, I think Golovkin has slipped a little, seems fair to say at 36, while Canelo at 28 is in his physical prime. I’m still siding with Canelo. I think father time may help, but Canelo will box well early and pick up the early rounds. GGG will have his successes and the fight will catch fire, but it will be the younger, fresher man who will enjoy the better of the exchanges and shock everyone by stopping GGG in the 10th round.

Mark Ortega