Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia predictions, odds and betting trends for super middleweight championship bout

Tom Gray

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia predictions, odds and betting trends for super middleweight championship bout image

There hasn’t been an undisputed championship fight between Mexican warriors for over half a century. However, that will change when Canelo Alvarez defends all of his super middleweight titles against compatriot Jaime Munguia at the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on May 4.

The 12-round bout, plus undercard action, will be broadcast by DAZN and Amazon Prime.

WATCH: Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia, live on DAZN

Canelo (60-2-2, 39 KOs) is coming off a dominant unanimous decision win over Jermell Charlo in September. The 33-year-old boxer-puncher from Guadalajara remains one of the finest fighters in the world today and shows no sign of slowing down ahead of his 65th professional outing.

“I think I'll be here for three or four more years, maybe sooner, we don't know,” Canelo told Azteca Deportes via Marca.com. “It's all in how I feel... until I say 'Yeah, I'm going to dedicate myself to my business'.

"But I still love and enjoy what I do and I'm going to go fight after fight and as long as I stay like this, as you see it now in the gym, we won't know how many more years. There's still plenty to give and give away, yes."

The 27-year-old Munguia (43-0, 34 KOs) is coming off one of the best performances of his career. In January, the former WBO super welterweight champ scored a brutal ninth-round stoppage over British lefty John Ryder. What made that win all the more significant was that Ryder took Canelo the full 12 rounds before dropping a unanimous decision last May.

The Sporting News provides odds and a final prediction for this all-Mexican shootout between Canelo and Munguia.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia betting odds

Per BetMGM, Canelo is the -500 favorite while Munguia is the +400 underdog. The draw is +1600.

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia trends

  • Canelo via KO/ TKO/ Tech. Dec/ DQ: +188
  • Canelo via decision: -125
  • Munguia via KO/TKO/Tech. Dec/ DQ: +1000
  • Munguia via decision: +700

MORE: How to bet on combat sports

Canelo Alvarez vs. Jaime Munguia prediction, best bets

The respective fighting styles dictate that this will be a high-contact affair.

Munguia is a durable, determined and ambitious challenger and he’ll be coming to win. The Tijuana star will be in excellent fighting shape and his passion will be bolstered by a feverish Mexican fight crowd.

But while the challenger has improved defensively in recent fights, he’s still very hittable. Canelo is getting on in years, but he remains an adept sharpshooter and counterpuncher, which is bad news for the offensive-minded Munguia.

Former world titleholders such as Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders had never been hit as hard or as often as they were by Canelo. The champion’s timing and punch variety remain elite level, so Munguia will be doing a lot of catching here.

However, it'll take a lot for Canelo to score a knockout. It’s been over three years and six fights since the Mexican hero has scored a stoppage, which is usually a sign that a great fighter is in the twilight of his career.

Regardless, Canelo has more than enough experience and ring craft to do a tidy job on Munguia over 12 rounds.

Sporting News prediction: Canelo UD 12 (Per BetMGM: -125)

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Tom Gray

Tom Gray Photo

Tom Gray joined The Sporting News in 2022 after over a decade at Ring Magazine where he served as managing editor. Tom retains his position on The Ring ratings panel and is a full member of the Boxing Writers Association of America.