We're inching closer to the kickoff of Super Bowl 57 between the Eagles (-1.5) and Chiefs, which means legal sportsbooks have posted more prop bets. What makes the Super Bowl even more enticing for bettors is the abundance of novelty game props that aren't as widely available to bet on during regular season action.
Wondering what our picks are for the result of the game's first and last play or which coach will throw a challenge flag first? You've come to the right place, as we've broken down 10 specialty game props that could spice up your Super Bowl Sunday.
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Super Bowl 57 Prop Bets: Best novelty game props
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Jersey number of first touchdown scorer: UNDER 11.5 (-130)
Starting off, we'll wager on the jersey number of the game's first touchdown scorer to be less than 12 at -130 odds. If the game's first touchdown is an offensive score, we like our chances for the UNDER 11.5 to hit. If it's the Eagles who reach paydirt first, skill position studs Jalen Hurts (No. 1), DeVonta Smith (No. 6), and A.J. Brown (No. 11) give us the best chance to cash our ticket. We think Brown could end up being the game's first touchdown scorer, as he looks to be in line for an effective game against a Chiefs pass defense that's aligned in press coverage at the second-highest rate this season, according to Next Gen Stats (43.9 percent). Brown's thrived against press coverage throughout his time in the NFL, and this season he "averaged a career-high 4.5 yards per route against press coverage this season, the most in a season in the NGS era (min. 100 routes)."
If it's not Brown and the Eagles scoring the game's first touchdown, Kansas City has four highly utilized skill position players whose jersey numbers are less than 12 (Jerick McKinnon, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Isiah Pacheco, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling). A Travis Kelce or Patrick Mahomes' first touchdown would be a crusher, but we'll take our chances with one of the Chiefs' other offensive weapons to score the game's first touchdown.
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1st offensive play of the game: Pass (+115)
A bet on the game's first play to be a pass attempt can be an entertaining way to get a quick sweat on another unique prop. If Kansas City starts with possession, it enters the big game employing the second-highest early-down pass rate this season (61.1 percent). We're hoping offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy continues calling early-down passes, giving Mahomes a shot to get a confidence-boosting pass completion to start the game.
The Eagles are known for their dominant ground game (50.04 percent run rate), but perhaps surprisingly, they've run at just a 48.1-percent clip on early downs (14th in NFL). Like Mahomes, we could see Hurts attempt a pass on the game's first play to shake some potential nerves and boost his confidence.
Net yards gained on opening drive: UNDER 38.5 (-110)
We'll also take a shot on the game's first drive to result in fewer than 39 net yards at -110. We're expecting both defenses to be ready from the get-go and think they'll be able to force a punt to conclude the game's first drive. Slowing down a Kansas City offense that leads the league in EPA/play (0.173) and yards per drive (39.3 yards) is a real challenge, but if any defense can limit the Chiefs' effectiveness, it's the Eagles.
Philadelphia's defense sports the league's lowest drop-back EPA (-0.110), as its coverage unit should hold its own against a banged-up Kansas City WR corps. Additionally, the Eagles' defense has held opponents to an average of just 28.5 yards per drive (seventh in NFL) which plays into UNDER bettors' hands.
Kansas City can also force a quick possession change if the Eagles start with the ball. The Chiefs' defense is one of the more underrated units in the league, sporting the fourth-lowest success rate since Week 9 (41 percent). They've also held opponents to an average of 30.2 yards per drive (12th), so we're liking our chances of cashing an early ticket.
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1st touchdown type: Rushing (+160)
In this multi-way market, we're taking the +160 on the game's first touchdown to be a rushing score. Not much needs to be said about the Eagles scoring a rushing TD, as they've racked up an NFL-leading 39 rushing scores while also being the most efficient rushing offense (0.102 rush EPA). Philadelphia's effectiveness with the zone read puts defenses on their heels, as both Hurts and Miles Sanders are as dangerous as it comes inside the 10. If the Eagles score the game's first TD, chances are it's of the rushing variety.
Conversely, Philadelphia's weakness on defense has been against the run. It allows the 10th-highest rush EPA (-0.043) and success rate (42.9 percent). As a result, Kansas City could very well punch in the game's first TD on the ground. Mahomes did throw for a league-leading 41 TD passes in the regular season, but the Chiefs still scored the eighth-most rushing TDs (18).
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Team to make first coach's challenge: Chiefs (-120)
We agree with the Chiefs pegged as the betting favorite to make the first coach's challenge at -120, as Reid's not one to keep his challenge flag in his pocket for long. Throughout his coaching career, "Big Red" has thrown the red challenge flag 137 times. Nick Sirianni hasn't had nearly the same track record of tossing the red flag through his first two seasons (10 total challenges), and while betting into this market is somewhat of a toss-up, betting on Reid to throw his challenge flag first is the way we're leaning.
Will the first coach's challenge be successful?: No (+110)
Of the 137 plays challenged by Reid, he sports just a 49.8-percent success rate, so at +110 odds (implied probability 47.62 percent), we'll bet on the first coach's challenge (likely by Reid) losing. Sorry Andy, but betting against your challenging ability is a must, especially when we're getting +110 odds on something you win less than 50 percent of the time. Sirianni could throw a wrench into our plans to cash our two coach's challenge bets, as he sports a 60-percent challenge success rate. However, the sample size is still a bit too small, so we still have faith in the game's first coach's challenge to be unsuccessful.
Any non-QB to have 1-plus TD pass: Yes (+1800)
How can we not take a flier on a non-QB to throw for a TD pass? Sure, the Eagles don't have Doug Pederson on their sidelines this season, but after pulling out the Philly Special in Super Bowl 52, you never know what trick play Sirianni and company have up their sleeves. For the Chiefs, Reid and Bieniemy are always a threat to add some wrinkles to their game script, and a trick play that results in a passing TD from a non-QB isn't as crazy as it sounds. Sign us up for another memorable Super Bowl trick play TD at +1800.
Any player to have a 55-plus yard reception: Yes (+250)
Mahomes and Hurts each ended the regular season averaging a hefty 8.1 yards per attempt, consistently showing an ability to stress defenses over the top. Considering their willingness to take shots coupled with some big play threats on the outside, we'll take our chances of at least one player hauling in a 55-plus yard reception at +250.
Hurts has improved with his deep ball this season (105.7 passer rating on passes 20-plus yards), and with the Chiefs playing press man at the second-highest rate, if Brown, Smith, or Quez Watkins can win off the line of scrimmage, a big chunk play could be in the cards for the Eagles offense.
Mahomes' big arm can also result in a chunk play through the air, as Valdes-Scantling (14.6 aDOT), and Justin Watson (19.5 aDOT) are the most likely beneficiaries of a long completion. Of course, it also helps that the weather won't be a factor here, as the lack of wind gives us an even better chance of seeing a 55-plus-yard reception.
Player with longest rush in the game: Isiah Pacheco (+300)
Pacheco's priced with the second shortest odds to post the game's longest rush, and we like the rookie RB to pop off the game's most explosive run at +300. Pacheco saw increased playing time in the AFC championship game (57-percent snap share), and he'll likely receive a similar workload in the Super Bowl. Pacheco's starting to find his groove lately, posting a 30-plus yard rush in two of the past three games. He also faces an exploitable Eagles defense allowing 4.6 yards per carry (24th), so we'll bank on the ascending rookie staying hot.
Last play of game to be a QB kneel? No (+155)
Instead of laying -200 on the game's final play to be a kneel, we'll take the +155 on the "No" here. With the game's spread sitting under a field goal, a projected close finish could result in the team with the ball last trying to keep their championship hopes afloat. We're hoping that results in the game's final play being a Hail Mary or a seemingly never-ending lateral play.
For those interested in a historical snapshot of the game's final plays, Super Bowl 11 between the Raiders and Vikings was the first game that ended with a QB kneel, and only 20 of the 56 Super Bowls have ended with a QB kneel. So, let's hope that trend plays out this year.
