The 2023 MLB season is right around the corner, with spring training games getting underway this weekend. Among the various futures markets that baseball bettors can delve into, DraftKings Sportsbook's posted odds on several stat category leaders, ranging from which player will hit the most homers to which pitcher will lead the league in saves.
Is Aaron Judge the best bet to lead the league in home runs for a second straight season? Can Freddie Freeman rack up 200-plus hits now that the shift is a thing of the past? Will Josh Hader right the ship in his first full season with the Padres?
Below, we've broken down our favorite regular season leader bets for the 2023 MLB regular season.
MLB Player Props 2023: Regular season leaders
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Home run leader: Mike Trout +800
It's no surprise to see Aaron Judge (+600) listed as the odds-on favorite after setting the American League record with 62 long balls last season, but we're going to bank on a big season from arguably the game's most talented hitter.
It's never easy betting against Judge, especially since he plays half his games inside hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. Still, we'll take our chances with Trout putting together a 50-plus homer season while Judge takes a small step back in '23. Despite playing in just 119 games last season due to various injuries, Trout still found a way to hit 40 long balls, marking the third-fewest games in which someone hit at least 40 HRs. If Trout can avoid missing chunks of time during the regular season, he has a real shot to lead the league in homers.
Other considerations: Yordan Alvarez (+1000), Manny Machado (+4500)
Strikeout leader: Dylan Cease +1000
Cease ended his breakout '22 campaign racking up the fifth-most strikeouts (227), and we're expecting the 27-year-old righthander to take another step forward as the Southsiders' ace. Cease ended '22 ranking in the 91st percentile in whiff rate and 88th percentile in strikeout rate while sporting an 11.1 K/9 rate (fourth in MLB).
He's always a threat to go deep into games, working at least seven-complete innings six times last season. So long as he avoids any setbacks, he's got as good of a chance as any to end the year as the strikeout king.
Other considerations: Spencer Strider (+1200), Luis Castillo (+4000)
RBI leader: Austin Riley +1200
For the RBI leader, we're again avoiding Judge, who is warranted as the betting favorite, and instead will look toward Riley at 12-1. Despite hitting the fifth-most home runs (38), Riley drove in the 21st-most RBIs (93) last year. We're expecting Riley to build off a '22 season that saw him don career bests in barrel rate (15.7 percent), exit velocity (92.5), hard-hit rate (50.8 percent), whiff rate (27.6 percent) and out-of-zone swing rate (30.1 percent).
He was a bit unfortunate as 21 of his 38 home runs were solo shots, and in a loaded Braves lineup, we think he gets some better fortune with more multi-run homers this season. Riley's going to see a good deal of at-bats with RISP, so someone who sat in the 98th percentile in xSLG last season is likely to take advantage of those situations.
Other considerations: Mike Trout (+1300), Jose Ramirez (+2000)
Hits leader: Freddie Freeman +1300
We'll gladly take +1300 on last season's hit leader (199 hits) to rack up the most base knocks again, as Freeman's offensive approach is among the best in the game. He focuses on the left-center gap and is a doubles machine, ending '22 with a league-leading 47 two-baggers.
Freeman's former teammate, Trea Turner, is the odds-on favorite at +600 after finishing with the second-most hits last season. While Turner's move to the hitter-friendly Citizen's Bank Park warrants his 6-1 price tag to lead the MLB in hits, we're still putting our money on the Dodgers first baseman to rake even more than usual without having to worry about the shift.
Other considerations: Luis Arraez (+2000), Steven Kwan (+5000)
Runs leader: Juan Soto +800
Soto didn't live up to the hype after getting dealt to San Diego at the trade deadline last season, but he's too good of a hitter not to bounce back in a big way in his first full season as a Padre. Soto only hit .236 while striking out 34 times in 52 games with his new club, but look for more consistency this season.
He still ended '22 with the sixth-highest on-base percentage (.401), and with RBI machines Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts likely hitting behind him, Soto could very well lead the league in runs scored. San Diego's projected to have a successful '23 season, so one of the many alternatives to betting on a big season from the Pads is to wager on Soto to touch home plate more than any other player.
Other considerations: Freddie Freeman (+1100), Julio Rodriguez (+1800)
Stolen bases leader: Ronald Acuna Jr. +600
Miami's Jon Berti led the league in stolen bases last season, swiping 41 bags in just 102 games played, but instead of betting on him to repeat at +2000, we're rolling with a chalky pick by betting on Acuna Jr. at +600.
Despite returning from an ACL injury that cost him the back half of the '21 season, Acuna Jr. still stole 29 bags (seventh in MLB) in 119 games. Acuna Jr. had the highest on-base percentage of the top-10 base stealers, and assuming he can play at least 140 games while being another year removed from ACL surgery, a 40-plus SB season is attainable. In addition, he was only in the 88th percentile in sprint speed last season, but he still ranked in the 95th percentile in xwOBA, so he's going to have ample opportunities to steal bags.
Other considerations: Trea Turner (+1400), Starling Marte (+2800)
Wins leader: Alek Manoah +2000
Pitcher wins undoubtedly don't carry the same weight as they used to, but Manoah's +2000 price tag to lead the MLB in wins is too good to pass up. We're incredibly high on the Blue Jays this season, so we expect Manoah to exceed his 16 wins from last season -- likely in the area of 20-plus wins.
Manoah was a workhorse last season, finishing with the ninth-most innings (196.2), and his elite arsenal and durability -- coupled with a potent offense and steady bullpen backing him up -- could translate to the West Virginia product leading all pitchers in Ws.
Other considerations: Aaron Nola (+2000), Spencer Strider (+3000)
Saves leader: Josh Hader +800
For someone we're accustomed to being automatic every time he gets the ball in the ninth inning, it was surprising to see Hader blow four saves last season while posting a career-high 5.22 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. However, Hader did finish the season looking like his usual self, allowing just one earned run in his final 16 appearances, so we're expecting one of the league's most dominant closers to put together a complete '23 season.
Hader ended '22 ranking in the 98th percentile in strikeout rate and 97th percentile in whiff rate, so as long as he has command, leading the league in saves is well within reach for the 28-year-old lefty.
Other considerations: Edwin Diaz (+500), Jordan Romano (+800)
