With the NFC and AFC Championship Game's spreads closing at a field goal or less, bettors expected two competitive, high-intensity-filled games. Instead, Brock Purdy's elbow injury changed the trajectory of the NFC Championship, but fans still got treated with an instant classic in the AFC Championship.
We discussed the weekend that was with Phill Gray, head of trading for Sports Interaction, breaking down the NFC and AFC Championship Games and whether they went in favor of the house or the bettors. We'll also look into the opening odds for Super Bowl 57 to see where the early money resides.
NFC Championship Betting Results: Eagles take advantage of Purdy injury
After opening as -2 point favorites, the Eagles closed as -3 favorites despite 65 percent of SIA's handle being bet on the 49ers' moneyline (closed +138). A first-quarter injury to Brock Purdy all but ended the 49ers' hopes, and despite San Francisco knotting the score at seven apiece in the second quarter, it was all Philadelphia from that point on.
Brock Purdy talked about his elbow injury postgame, saying he couldn't throw the football over 5 or 10 yards.
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 (@sportingnews) January 30, 2023
Tough end to a heroic season from Purdy 🙏 pic.twitter.com/WGV1JsZUG7
According to Gray, "the injury-filled result for San Francisco gave us a break-even profit/loss result on the game as the two sides canceled each other out." The public did, however, fare better on the total, with bettors backing the UNDER 44.5. Additionally, SIA got beat in Purdy's over/under passing attempts prop (31.5), with the public betting the UNDER in the pregame markets. They clearly were not expecting him to be sidelined for the majority of the game, though, but a win's a win.
AFC Championship Betting Results: SIA cashes in with KC victory
Due to Patrick Mahomes ' ankle injury, Sunday's AFC Championship Game had a much more volatile spread. SIA opened the game at a pick 'em with strong early action backing the Bengals' spread and moneyline. However, once news broke that Mahomes' ankle injury wasn't as severe as some speculated, the Chiefs moved all the way to -2.5.
Despite the line move, the public continued to bet against the Chiefs, as the Bengals ended up being the biggest liability for SIA this season. According to Gray, "KC's last-minute victory resulted in our biggest win of the year."
BUTKER'S KICK IS GOOD AND SENDS THE CHIEFS BACK TO THE SUPER BOWL 🤯
— 𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐒𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐍𝐞𝐰𝐬 (@sportingnews) January 30, 2023
📹 @NFLpic.twitter.com/PeuPc6pfFR
SIA also fared well on the total, with 85 percent of the handle bet on the OVER (closed 49). However, SIA did lose with Travis Kelce scoring the game's first touchdown (closed +420 after opening at +530), as the public always loves to bet on KC's elite TE to reach paydirt.
NFL Super Bowl 57 early odds, Eagles (-2) listed as short favorites
We've already seen a ton of early line movement regarding the side in Super Bowl 57, as the Chiefs have flipped from the favorite (opened -2.5) to the underdog (currently +2). Sharp bettors with market influence quickly delved into the opening spread, as it's rare to see that large of a move occur that fast.
There's a chance this game closes closer to a pick 'em by kickoff, as not much truly separates the Eagles and Chiefs on a neutral field.
Regarding the total, early action is on the UNDER 50. However, with public action having a more significant effect on line movements in Super Bowls, don't expect this total to move as the public's likely not going to bet the UNDER in a game featuring Jalen Hurts and Patrick Mahomes.
Will Chris Stapleton's National Anthem last more than two minutes?
Betting on the length of the National Anthem is one of the many specialty prop markets offered for the Super Bowl, and Gray's already set the over/under for Stapleton's anthem at 121.5 seconds. Action is currently split 50/50, but that's likely to change in the days leading up to the Big Game. For what it's worth, the average length of the Super Bowl national anthem is 103 seconds (one minute, 43 seconds).
