Ten of the 14 road teams triumphed in Week 5 of the NFL season. There were big upsets like the Jaguars winning in Pittsburgh, and more predicted swings like the Seahawks beating the Rams.
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In addition to the undefeated Chiefs, there are only three teams -- the Packers, Panthers and Eagles -- that have 4-1 records entering Week 6.
WEEK 6 NFL PICKS: Straight up | Against the spread
Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Let’s look at how the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs have changed entering Week 6.
AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs
Probability vs. weekly % change
| Green Bay Packers | 0.99 | 0.02 |
| New England Patriots | 0.97 | 0.02 |
| Denver Broncos | 0.94 | 0.02 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 0.94 | 0.06 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 0.92 | 0.01 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 0.72 | 0.02 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 0.71 | -0.04 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 0.69 | 0.12 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.65 | -0.15 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 0.46 | 0.18 |
| Tennessee Titans | 0.43 | -0.2 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0.42 | -0.04 |
| Carolina Panthers | 0.41 | 0.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 0.4 | 0.04 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0.4 | 0.08 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0.38 | 0.04 |
| Oakland Raiders | 0.26 | -0.03 |
| Buffalo Bills | 0.24 | -0.07 |
| Washington Redskins | 0.22 | 0.05 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0.18 | -0.11 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 0.18 | 0.08 |
| Indianapolis Colts | 0.15 | 0.03 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.13 | -0.1 |
| L.A. Rams | 0.09 | -0.05 |
| Houston Texans | 0.08 | -0.02 |
| N.Y. Giants | 0.01 | -0.05 |
| Chicago Bears | 0.01 | -0.01 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.01 | 0 |
| L.A. Chargers | 0.01 | 0 |
| N.Y. Jets | 0.01 | 0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 0 |
| Cleveland Browns | 0 | 0 |
NFL playoff odds changes
Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 6:
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Jacksonville Jaguars (+18%): The Jaguars' big upset in Pittsburgh gives them the AFC South lead and also boosts their playoff hopes dramatically. In a very tight division like the AFC South, these crucial wins over favorites on the road tend to make the difference between who gets into the playoffs and who sits at home.
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Baltimore Ravens (+12%): The roller-coaster season for the Ravens continued in Oakland, where Joe Flacco and the Ravens got back on track after two miserable games against Jacksonville and Pittsburgh. It still looks like AFC wild-card spots are likely going to the AFC North and the AFC West and Baltimore’s stock is rising, but stability is still in doubt.
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Carolina Panthers (+10%): The Panthers are listed as one of the top three teams to improve their playoff probabilities for the second straight week, as Cam Newton continues to serve reminders that he led his team to the Super Bowl not too long ago. Another convincing road win in Detroit against a competent opponent notably boosts Carolina’s playoff hopes. Based on AccuScore's current projections, Carolina will earn a wild-card spot. The Thursday Night Football game against Philadelphia may have an impact on playoff tie-breakers, as both of these teams have clear paths to the postseason.
MORE: NFL Power Rankings
Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 6:
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Tennessee Titans (-20%): Two losses as favorites following the Titans' statement win over the Seahawks have dropped Tennessee out of pole position in the AFC South. The Titans have must-wins against the Colts and the Browns during the next two weeks in order to keep up with the others in a very tight AFC South.
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Pittsburgh Steelers (-15%): The Steelers' loss at home to the Jaguars combined with a Ravens victory dropped Pittsburgh's playoff probabilities significantly. The Steelers are still holding the final wild-card spot in the AFC, but in order to keep it, they cannot take any more losses at home against big underdogs.
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Arizona Cardinals (-11%): The Cardinals haven’t looked very good at any point this season. Overtime victories combined with three losses spell disaster for the Cardinals' playoff chances. Adding struggling running back Adrian Peterson doesn't seem to be the right answer based on simulations either.
AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.