NFL Week 11 odds, predictions to make playoffs on road to Super Bowl 2018

Though some struggling teams are already out of the NFL playoff picture, most teams still have hopes of a strong finish and a postseason berth.

Based on AccuScore calculations, the projected NFL playoff teams in the AFC are the New England Patriots, Kansas City Chiefs, Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans, with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Baltimore Ravens taking the wild-card spots.

In the NFC, AccuScore projects the Philadelphia Eagles, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Detroit Lions to make the postseason as division winners, with the Carolina Panthers and L.A. Rams making it as wild cards.

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Let's take a look at the updated NFL playoff picture entering Week 11. Each week, AccuScore will update its 2017 NFL postseason forecast by simulating the remainder of the NFL season 10,000 times to predict win totals, division winners and probabilities of reaching the playoffs on the road to Super Bowl 52. Below are the probabilities and Vegas odds of making the NFL playoffs and how they have changed.

AccuScore's odds to make NFL playoffs

Probability vs. weekly % change

NFL playoff odds changes

Biggest improvements to playoff chances entering Week 11:

• Detroit Lions (+24%): The Lions' playoff probability soared, as the Vikings' numbers dropped (see below). The Lions have two games remaining against Chicago, and they are looking for second victories at home from ailing divisional rivals Green Bay and Minnesota. It may well be that only one team from NFC North will go to the playoffs. At this time, the Lions and Vikings are tied for that spot.

• Tennessee Titans (+14%): The Titans are on a four-game winning streak, but three of those wins were at home and the fourth came against the winless Browns. However, Tennessee has three home games left and road games against a one-win San Francisco team and Indianapolis, which is currently fourth in the AFC South.

• Carolina Panthers (+11%): The Panthers keep improving their performance week after week. This time, it was a primetime win against a beat-up Miami team. The Panthers need to keep up the good work, because the New Orleans Saints are riding a seven-game winning streak that started by beating Carolina. These two teams will meet again in Week 13. 

MORE: 2018 mock draft

Biggest drops in playoff chances entering Week 11:

• Minnesota Vikings (-35%): It is a bit surprising to see the 7-2 Vikings falling in the playoff probabilities when they are riding a five-game winning streak. However, there are a lot of ongoing questions about the starting QB. Generally simulations don’t like uncertainty, even when teams are winning. Also, after this week, the Vikings hit the road to face the Lions, Falcons and Panthers, who are all in the playoff mix. If Minnesota pulls even two wins out of these, their probabilities will rise.

• Dallas Cowboys (-31%): The Cowboys were without Ezekiel Elliott in Week 10 and looked hopeless against Atlanta. In order to keep its playoff hopes alive, Dallas needs to make the most out of its next three games, which are all in Dallas. Three of their next four are NFC East games, so if the Cowboys can pull off those wins, they can get back on the playoff track in a hurry.

• Buffalo Bills (-13%): The Bills are dropping for the second week in a row after being blown out by New Orleans in Buffalo. Needless to say, they need to reverse their course, but simulations are not so confident that a rookie QB is the answer, especially in two road games through the AFC West ahead. 

 AccuScore's NFL playoff probabilities will be updated on a weekly basis.