57 off 24.
Anyone would be forgiven for thinking England had it in the bag.
Sure, chasing at night in Dubai has been one of the tournament’s most pronounced advantages and sure, New Zealand have the calibre of batters to punish even the best death bowlers in the world, but still.
57 off 24.
There were challenges before the match, of course; the injuries to Tymal Mills and Jason Roy dealing pre-emptive blows to England’s carefully crafted plans.
But, although it necessitated a shuffling of the order, with Bairstow moving up to open and Sam Billings slotting into the middle order - where he was ultimately not required to bat - a place in the final seemed all but secured for Eoin Morgan’s men.
It was there in the first over of the chase, when Chris Woakes drew a leading edge from the bat of New Zealand’s chief destroyer in Martin Guptill.
It was there in the third over when Captain Dependable, Kane Williamson, tried to break free of a strangling series of dot balls by ramping Woakes, only to top edge to Adil Rashid at short fine leg. How often do you see Williamson crack under pressure?
Three overs in and New Zealand had lost both battering ram and anchor and Woakes had just bowled a wicket-maiden in a World Cup semi-final, for goodness sakes.
The much talked about dew had not materialised and the ball was gripping nicely for Rashid and Liam Livingstone.
There had been some speculation that left-arm allrounder David Willey could have been brought in to replace Roy and give Morgan another bowling option but, with 16 overs gone and New Zealand still facing a mountain to climb, all thoughts of Willey had been pushed aside.
But New Zealand is the country that produced Sir Edmund Hillary and, on the back of Daryl Mitchell gritty determination, their steep ascent started when Chris Jordan stood at the top of his mark at the start of the seventeenth over.
Jimmy Neesham, who has made no secret of the depth of hurt suffered in the ‘barest of margins’ loss to England in the 2019 World Cup Final, smoked a gift of a Jordan ball over the deep mid-wicket boundary, sparking memories of him fruitlessly clearing the rope in the super over at Lord’s.
No need for Jordan to panic, of course; the target was surely still too high and the more Neesham and Mitchell tried to accelerate, the greater the chance more wickets would tumble.
Jordan’s second ball was full into the leg side as he tried to avoid hitting the sweet spot for Neesham's powerful swing; not too much damage done, Neesham deflecting a couple of leg byes to square leg.
When Jordan tried to repeat the same tactic on his next delivery, he strayed too far down the leg side; the wide was called and the first fluttering of nerves, faint though it was, could be detected.
After hurried conferences, Morgan adjusted his field for an off-stump line, wary of Neesham’s zone but hoping it could be exploited; it was cat-and-mouse stuff.
Jordan obliged with a delivery outside off but Neesham met the ball with force and sent it through long on for another four runs.
The flutters became tremors when Jordan’s next delivery strayed too wide of off-stump but then all movement stopped, all breaths were held, when Neesham launched another ball in his arc high into the Dubai night sky.
It was the moment in a Broadway musical when, in the middle of a raucous chorus number, the orchestra stops and all the lights dim, save for a single spot on a soloist.
Bairstow ran around from long-on and got his hands under the ball, parrying it back as he fell over the rope for Livingstone to complete the catch amid the roar of the crowd. Livingstone threw the ball in the air with delight and Chris Jordan screamed his celebration.
But Bairstow had not seemed so confident and it took just one replay to confirm his knee was touching the rope while the ball was in his hands.
Just before the replay was shown, the injured Roy could be seen by the dugout, mouthing, “Wow, wow.” Not in exhilaration, but in uncertainty; a recognition that this was the pivotal moment.
The celebrations subsided as the tremors resumed, only now they threatened to turn seismic. Wow, wow, indeed.
Jordan held his line and Neesham went for the same shot, but couldn’t leverage as much power.
Bairstow and Livingstone converged once more but, perhaps momentarily spooked by the preceding event, neither of them committed while expecting the other to take the catch and the ball landed between them; the guilty disbelief etched clearly on their faces.
Jordan’s final ball was a yorker, dug out for a single; it was England’s most expensive over of the entire tournament, arriving at the worst possible time, and sparked six-year-old memories of Eden Gardens when another all-rounder took England apart at the death to deny them a T20 World Cup trophy.
And as Ben Stokes’ final over to Carlos Brathwaite in Kolkata proved to be the defining passage of the 2016 Final, so Jordan’s to Neesham proved to be the catalyst for New Zealand’s victory in Dubai, capped off by Mitchell’s player of the match innings.
New Zealand needed 57 off 24 balls.
In the end, thanks to an over of brilliant chaos, they got there with six balls to spare.
