Australian Open 2020: Draw analysis for the Australian players at the Australian Open

Brendan Bradford

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Australian Open 2020: Draw analysis for the Australian players at the Australian Open image

The Australian Open draw has been made official with a presentation ceremony at Rod Laver Arena in Melbourne, with Ash Barty landing in a winnable quarter of the draw, Nick Kyrgios on a collision course with Rafael Nadal and John Millman facing another potential Grand Slam encounter with Roger Federer.

We’re breaking down how the big name Australians fared in Thursday night’s draw, assessing their chances of winning and estimating how deep they can go.

Read on for all the analysis.

MORE: When does the Australian Open start?

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW – ASH BARTY

Round One: Ash Barty (1) vs Lesia Tsurenko

Ash Barty has drawn Ukranian world number 120 Lesia Tsurenko.

They’ve played twice before with each claiming a win.

Barty won their first match 6-0 6-2 in 2014 before her stint in cricket, while Tsurenko won their most recent encounter at the Brisbane International in 2018 6-3 6-2.

Winnable? One hundred percent.

Ash Barty odds vs Tsurenko: $1.12

Round Two Ash Barty vs Polona Hercog or Rebecca Peterson

Barty has never played either of these two players, with Hercog ranked 48th in the world and Peterson ranked 261.

Barty and Victoria Azarekna earned a doubles win over Peterson and Tamara Zidansek at Wimbledon last year.

Winnable? Of course

Third Round: Ash Barty vs (likely) Elena Rybakina or Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Barty beat Sasnovich in the US Open second round in 2017 6-1 7-6(7), but has never played Rybakina in singles on tour.

Winnable? Uh huh.

Fourth Round: Ash Barty vs (likely) Petra Martic, Alison Riske or Julia Goerges

Martic is the 13th seed, Riske is the 18th seed and Goerges is a dark horse.

Barty has won both of her matches against Martic, most recently in Wuhan last year, when she walked away with a 7-6(6) 3-6 6-3 quarter-final win.

Riske poses a huge threat here, having won both of her matches with Barty. Most notably, and most recently, was last yeat at Wimbledon in the fourth round. Barty entered the grass court Grand Slam off the back of her debut major win at the French Open and was the newly minted world number one. Riske caused a huge upset in beating her 3-6 6-2 6-3. The American also won their only other match in 2016 7-6(4) 7-5.

Barty has two wins and a loss against Goerges. She avenged her round of 16 quarter-final defeat in Birmingham to the German in the decider of the same tournament last year, winning 6-3 7-5.

Winnable? It's tricky.

Quarter-final: Ash Barty vs (likely) Petra Kvitova, Madison Keys or Maria Sakkari

We’re down into the second week of the tournament now and things don’t get any easier.

If the seeds win out (which is hardly likely), Barty could have a potential last eight match against a couple of players she knows well.

Firstly, Petra Kvitova.

They’ve played each other seven times so far, with the number seven seed holding a 4-3 lead, including some big tournaments But, Barty is on a three-match winning streak.

Interestingly, they played each other five times in 2019, with Kvitova beating Barty in three epic sets in the Sydney International final (RIP Sydney International), before only needing two sets to repeat the dose at the Australian Open a few weeks later.

Barty bounced back when she found some serious form through the middle of last year though, beating the Czech two-time Wimbledon winner in Miami, Beijing and at the WTA Finals.

Barty is 2-1 against American Keys, who is in-form after reaching the final of the Brisbane International last week. Barty beat Keys twice last year, including in the French Open quarter-finals.

Winnable? Man, who knows at this point.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW – NICK KYRGIOS

Kyrgios is the 23rd seed after jumping up in the rankings and benefitting from a few withdrawals.

First Round: Nick Kyrgios vs Lorenzo Sonego

Kyrgios won their only previous match 7-6 6-4 in the first round of the Cincinnati Masters last year.

Kyrgios has had a great start to the year, has won back the public to a large extent and will be taking plenty of confidence into this match.

Winnable? Yep.

Nick Kyrgios odds vs Sonego: $1.07

Second Round: Nick Kyrgios vs Pablo Cuevas or Gilles Simon

Kyrgios has two wins over world number 44 Cuevas, including one at the Australian Open in 2016. Both of their matches went three sets, with Kyrgios also winning their match in Madrid on clay in the same year.

Kyrgios and Simon have only met once, with the Aussie claiming a 6-4 7-6(5) win over the veteran Frenchman on his way to winning in Washington D.C. last year.

Winnable? Yes, but both opponents offer the exact kind of match-up that could trip Kyrgios up.

Third Round: Nick Kyrgios vs (likely) Karen Kachanov

This is a juicy rematch.

Kyrgios lost their only other match in spectacular fashion in Cincinnati last year, offering up one of his most outrageous meltdowns to date. Kyrgios won the first set in a tiebreak, but it was pretty much all down hill from there. At one point he took a toilet break, but smashed a racquet in a corridor. He also called chair umpire Fergus Murphy a “f***ing tool” and appeared to spit at him.

Winnable? Yes.

Fourth Round: Nick Kyrgios vs Rafael Nadal or Pablo Carreno Busta

The entire tennis world will be hoping Kyrgios and Nadal can each make the fourth round.

Their meetings have become appointment television and they apparently don’t get along.

Nadal holds a 4-3 lead from their seven showdowns, and they’re 1-1 at Grand Slams.

Kyrgios burst onto the scene with a shock fourth round win over Nadal in the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2014. The Spaniard gained a measure of revenge at last year’s grass court slam, winning in four sets in the second round.

It’s no surprise that Nadal won both of their clay court matches pretty handily, but Kyrgios holds a 2-1 lead on hard court.

Their most recent hard court showdown was at the Mexico Open last year, as Kyrgios edged a thrilling and spicy 3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(6) win for his first title of the year.

I’m leaving Pablo Carreno Busta in here, because Nadal hasn’t necessarily been in great form so far this year. Kyrgios holds two wins over PCB, including a straight sets win in the first round of the 2016 Australian Open.

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW - JOHN MILLMAN

John Millman is ranked 47th has been drawn in the third quarter of the draw.

First Round: John Millman vs Ugo Umbert

The pair have never played each other, but world number 57 Humbert just earned a huge 7-5 6-4 win over up-and-coming Canadian Denis Shapovalov. 

The 21-year-old Humbert has a career-high ranking of 46, and lost to American Denis Kudla at the Canberra International...which was held in Bendigo. 

Winnable? Sure.

John Millman odds: $1.87

Second Round: John Millman vs Hubert Hurkacz

Millman hasn't played Poland's Hurkacz, who is ranked 34th in the world and is the 31st seed. 

Hurkacz is in some great early season form, winning all three of his round robin matches for Poland in the ATP Cup. Those included a 4-6 6-2 6-3 win over Diego Schwartzman and a 6-2 6-2 victory over Marin Cilic. But his biggest scalp came against Dominic Theim, who he beat 3-6 6-4 7-6(5).

Winnable? Tricky, but yes. 

Third Round: John Millman vs Roger Federer

THIS IS WHAT I'M HERE FOR! 

Although Millman is 1-2 against Federer, his win over the Swiss maestro at the 2018 US Open was one of the biggest shocks of that year. 

In a match that went well past midnight local time, Millman claimed a 3-6 7-5 7-6(7) 7-6(3) win and gave a hilarious post-match speech in which he spoke about his NFL Fantasy team. 

Federer won their only grass court meeting in two sets in Halle last year (surprise) and needed three sets to beat Millman in Brisbane in 2015. 

Winnable? Millman has a perfect record against Federer in Grand Slams, so why the hell not? 

Fourth Round: John Millman (or Roger Federer, I guess) vs Grigor Dimitrov or Denis Shapovalov

If he can get through Federer for the second time in Slams, he could potentially face Baby Fed Grigor Dimitrov - although by now, the 28-year-old Dimitrov has probably outgrown the 'baby' moniker. 

Either way, Dimitrov has won both his matches against Millman, which came in the last two years in Brisbane. Millman does have a win over Dimitrov actually, at a Challenger event in Nottingham in 2010. 

Shapovalov beat Millman in three sets at last year's French Open. 

And, just in case it goes the other way, Federer won his only match against Shapovalov - at Miami last year - and is 7-1 against Dimitrov. The solitary loss was in the quarter-finals at last year's US Open, when Dimitrov played some truly inspired tennis. 

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW: AJLA TOMLJANOVIC

Ajla Tomljanovic will play world number 32 Anastasija Sevastova in the first round. It's a pretty tough opening assignment for the Aussie. 

Sevastova has won both of their previous meetings. Both were in Mallorca on grass in 2018 and 2019. 

Tomljanovic opened her 2020 season in Brisbane, beating Priscilla Hon 6-2 4-6 6-4 before pushing eventual champion Karolina Pliskova to three sets. 

The 25-year-old followed that up by beating Yulia Putintseva in two sets in Adelaide before being overpowered by former long-time world number one Simona Halep in the round of 16. 

Ajla Tomljanovic odds vs Sevastova: $2.15

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW: SAM STOSUR

Sam Stosur is ranked 97th in the world and will take on a qualifier in the first round of the Australian Open. 

The Australian Open hasn't been a happy hunting ground for the 2011 US Open champion, with Stosur suffering four consecutive first-round defeats. A pair of fourth round appearances in 2010 and 2006 are her best results at her home slam. 

If she gets through to the second round, Stosur will face fellow former US Open champion Sloane Stephens, who plays Shuai Zhang first up. 

Stosur and Stephens have split the four maches they've played, with the American claiming their most recent encounter in straight sets in Madrid in 2018. 

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW: ALEXEI POPYRIN

World number 95 Alexei Popyrin has been drawn in the second quarter of the draw.

Popyrin will play French veteran Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, who is the 28th seed. They have never played before. 

Popyrin was knocked out of the Qatar Open in the second round of qualifying, and made a first round exit from the Adelaide International this week. 

As a 19-year-old, Popyrin made it through to the third round of last year's Australian Open, eventually going down in five sets to Lucas Pouille. In the second round, he was up two sets and a break over Dominic Thiem when the Austrian retired. 

Popyrin also made it to the third round of the US Open, beating Federico Delbonis and Mikhail Kukushkin before Italian Matteo Berretini knocked him out. 

If he can get past Tsonga, Popyrin will face either Hugo Gaston or Jaume Munar, before a likely third round encounter with Daniil Medvedev. 

Alexei Popyrin odds vs Tsonga: $2.75

AUSTRALIAN OPEN DRAW: ALEX BOLT

Alex Bolt was awarded a wildcard for the first grand slam of the year, and is coming off a great run at the Adelaide Open. 

Bolt will play Spain's Albert Ramos-Vinolas in the first round at Melbourne Park.

South Australian Bolt has never played the world number 42, Ramos-Vinolas, but after beating Stephane Robert and Jan-Lennard Struff in Adelaide, he should be in some form. 

A win over Ramos-Vinolas will see Bolt - ranked 157th in the world - most likely face Dominic Thiem in the second round. 

Alex Bolt odds vs Ramos-Vinolas: $2.15

AUSTRALIAN OPEN MEN'S SINGLES RESULTS

 

Brendan Bradford