Alex de Minaur will bid to reach an Australian Open quarter-final for the first time when he takes on fifth-seed Andrey Rublev at Rod Laver Arena on Sunday night.
The Aussie 10th seed has only been to the quarter-final of a major once before - US Open 2020 - and he is looking primed to equal his career-best slam result at Melbourne Park.
Either De Minaur or Rublev will get through to the last eight and face third seed Jannik Sinner or Karen Khachanov, with the Italian tipped by many to win the Australian Open.
Alex de Minaur's chances against Andrey Rublev at Australian Open
Meaning no disrespect to Rublev, he is probably the top 10 player that De Minaur would like to face most alongside ninth seed Hubert Hurkacz.
De Minaur has a 3-2 record in head-to-head matches with Rublev, but the world no.5 did win their last meeting on hardcourt at the Paris Masters in November 2023.
Rublev, 26, has won 15 ATP titles across his career but only one of those has come in a Masters 1000 tournament or better - at the 2023 Monte Carlo Masters on clay.
While he has reached the quarter-finals at Grand Slams on nine occasions - and at least once at every major - he has never been past that stage.
In 2023, Rublev reached the last eight at three majors - Australian, Wimbledon and US but lost to Novak Djokovic at the first two and Danill Medvedev at Flushing Meadows.
Despite being among the top echelon of players for around four years now, Rublev has yet to establish himself as a Grand Slam challenger.
De Minaur has worked himself into the top 10 for the first time recently, but has been bundled out at majors at the fourth round five times during his career.
However, the Australian has showed signs that he is ready to step up with a series of wins against top 10 players this season.
First, De Minaur earned a solid win over Taylor Fritz, who was in the top 10 at the time, at the United Cup, before stunning world no.1 Djokovic and Alexander Zverev at the same event.
He then followed up those results with a super tiebreak victory against world no.2 Carlos Alcaraz in a charity match just prior to the Australian Open.
While these victories were in lesser tournaments and exhibition events, it suggests De Minaur could be ready to compete against the world's best in majors.
Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev betting odds
By virtue of their ranking difference and Rublev's record of reaching Grand Slam quarter-finals, De Minaur is the slight underdog to win the Australian Open fourth round match.
Unibet odds
| Player | To win |
| Alex de Minaur | $2.12 |
| Andrey Rublev | $1.72 |
Alex de Minaur vs. Andrey Rublev head-to-head
There have been five previous meetings between De Minaur and Rublev with the Australian coming out on top three times.
However, Rublev won their last meeting on indoor hardcourt at the Paris Masters 2023, but De Minaur edged his opponent earlier in the year at the Rotterdam Open.
De Minaur vs. Rublev head-to-head matches
| Date | Tournament | Surface | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 23, 2023 | Paris Masters | Indoor Hardcourt | Rublev 4-6 6-3 6-1 |
| Feb. 15, 2023 | ABN Amro Rotterdam | Indoor Hardcourt | De Minaur 6-4 6-4 |
| Apr. 13, 2022 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | Rublev 2-6 6-1 6-4 |
| Nov. 7, 2008 | Next Gen ATP Finals - Milan | Indoor Hardcourt | De Minaur 4-1 3-4(5) 4-1 4-2 |
| Aug. 4, 2008 | Citi Open - Washington | Hard | De Minaur 5-7 7-6(6) 6-4 |
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