Anything can happen in State of Origin, but that won't stop us from trying to predict how the series opener will play out on Wednesday night.
New South Wales enter the clash as slight favourites with the bookmakers, although reigning champions Queensland have all the weapons required to win in Adelaide.
Below are The Sporting News team's predictions and best bets for Origin Game 1.
Odds courtesy of BlueBet.
Valentine Holmes to deliver for Queensland
- Joshua Mayne
There is not much to split the Maroons and Blues coming into the series opener, so it's tricky to tip any results-related outcomes.
Regardless of how the match finishes though, Valentine Holmes should be highly influential.
The Cowboys centre is experienced and composed at representative level, regularly making an impact on the scoreboard.
His points on Wednesday night will primarily come from the tee, and with an 82.22 per cent goal conversion rate this season, he can certainly be trusted.
If he does not receive many opportunities to kick goals, there is every chance he scores a try himself. Tough, reliable centres are invaluable in Origin, and he has scored plenty of important four-pointers in previous series.
It is also worth noting that Holmes’ next try in the Origin arena will be his 12th for the Maroons in the competition. Only two players in the history of the series have scored more than 12 tries - Greg Inglis (18) and Darius Boyd (17), per Opta Sports.
BEST BET: Valentine Holmes to score 8+ points ($2.25 with BlueBet)
VALUE BET: Cameron Murray ATS ($5.50 with BlueBet)
SAME GAME MULTI: QLD +6.5, over 29.5 points, Holmes ATS ($6 with BlueBet)
Queensland hold on in low-scoring affair
- Liam O'Loughlin
Queensland will come into the series opener as slight outsiders with the bookies - but the defending champions are looking primed for a huge performance.
Their forward pack is superior to the Blues, with the likes of Tom Flegler and David Fifita adding to the firepower, while in-form Broncos fullback Reece Walsh is set to make his debut for the Maroons.
Latrell Mitchell's injury has put NSW on the back-foot immediately, with one of the side's clear X-factors now on the sidelines for Game I in Adelaide.
While the Maroons have plenty of quality players, they tend to find their victories in narrow, hard-fought circumstances - similar to the series decider last year.
Expect to see the likes of Ben Hunt, Daly Cherry-Evans and Cameron Munster put their big-game experience to good use and get Queensland over the line in a tight, low-scoring affair.
BEST BET: Under 36.5 total points ($1.85 with BlueBet)
VALUE BET: Ben Hunt ATS ($6.50 with BlueBet)
SAME GAME MULTI: Under 36.5, QLD 1-12, Tabuai-Fidow ATS ($20.72 with BlueBet)
Not so Amazing Adelaide for Freddie
- Chris Danks
It'll be glorious, sanctioned violence during the first stanza of Origin I. Queensland have claimed Game I in three of the last four Origins - by no more than six points each game - and despite the bookies saying otherwise, I like them for Origin I.
If the Blues can get a roll on in the forwards, there's an argument to be made for Tom Turbo and Stephen Crichton piecing up their opposite centres, but that Maroons forward pack looks settled, dangerous and just a series win or two away from singin' aye aye yippee yippee aye at every available opportunity.
BEST BET: Tom Trbojevic ATS ($2.65 with Bluebet)
VALUE BET: New South Wales Blues/Queensland Maroons HT/FT ($8.50 with Bluebet)
SAME GAME MULTI: Josh Addo-Carr (most metres)/ Queensland win ($9 with Bluebet)
Panthers combination to deliver for Blues
- Tom Naghten
Brad Fittler has been criticised for his Penrith-heavy selection policy in the past but we expect that club form of the ladder leaders to translate to a big performance in Adelaide on Wednesday night.
Stephen Crichton only got the nod when Latrell Mitchell went down with injury but the Panthers flyer could prove to be a key attacking weapon for the Blues.
His combination with Nathan Cleary, along with that of Isaah Yeo, Jarome Luai and former teammate Api Koroisau will prove pivotal in a New South Wales victory.
BEST BET: Stephen Crichton ATS ($2.85 with Bluebet)
VALUE BET: Nathan Cleary Man of the Match ($5.50 with Bluebet)
SAME GAME MULTI: NSW 1-12, Stephen Crichton ATS, Nathan Cleary MOM ($47.02 with Bluebet)
