The first game of this year's State of Origin series is nearly here.
NSW will have the home-ground advantage on Wednesday night as they aim to snatch the shield back from Queensland, who themselves are looking to secure a third series win on the trot.
Below are The Sporting News team's predictions and best bets for the 2024 Origin opener.
All odds via TAB.
MORE STATE OF ORIGIN:
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- When was the last Origin whitewash?
- Will Ray Warren come out of retirement to commentate his 100th Origin game?
- Which NRL club has the biggest advantage during the Origin period?
Teddy to return to top Origin form at late notice
It's never easy to predict how an Origin opener will pan out, and this year it's even harder with plenty of personnel changes – players and coaches.
Neither team will have their first choice halves pairing available for Game 1, adding a major element of unpredictability.
In a bit of a coin-flip game, home-ground advantage could be crucial. The Blues have only lost 10 of the last 31 games played at Accor Stadium – a nice stat to have on their side.
If his 2024 form is anything to go by, James Tedesco will be more than ready as Dylan Edwards' late replacement at fullback.
Expect him to lead by example and guide a youthful NSW backline with his experience.
BEST BET: NSW to win ($2.05)
VALUE BET: James Tedesco player of the match ($10.00)
SAME GAME MULTI: Either team by 10 or less + James Tedesco anytime tryscorer ($4.30)
Maroons to direct traffic at Blues debutants
A potential weakness for the Blues is the Suaalii/ Lomax side, assuming coach Michael Maguire opts to keep Stephen Crichton and Brian To’o together from their past Panthers partnership.
Two Origin debutants defending together for the first time against the lightning pace of Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow is an obvious place of concern for New South Wales. Tabuai-Fidow and former Cowboys teammate Murray Taulagi were electric on both sides of the ball in the deciding Game 2 in 2023.
How NSW plan to unlock that side of the field - and defend - will go a long way to deciding the fate of Game 1.
BEST BET: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow anytime tryscorer ($3)
VALUE BET: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score 2+ tries ($11)
SAME GAME MULTI: QLD to win, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score, Reece Walsh to score ($8)
Jeremiah Nanai to continue try-scoring hot streak
Jeremiah Nanai has become a mainstay in the Origin arena ever since debuting for Queensland in the opening game of the 2022 series.
Billy Slater showed his faith in the young backrower by selecting him during an otherwise disappointing campaign last year.
However, this season, Nanai has started to look like his old self again after scoring 10 tries in 12 NRL appearances to cruise into the starting side for the Maroons.
Nanai will now be looking for a big performance to lock down his spot on an edge.
The 21-year-old bagged the first try of his Origin career during Game II of last year's series, when he crossed for the sixth and final four-pointer during Queensland’s 32-6 demolition job.
Against a new defensive set-up under the leadership of Michael Maguire, Nanai will fancy his chances of adding to his tally.
BEST BET: Jeremiah Nanai anytime tryscorer ($3.30)
VALUE BET: First home team tryscorer – Angus Crichton ($11.00)
SAME GAME MULTI: Zac Lomax and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow to score a try ($6.50)
