NRL Supercoach 2019: Who to buy, hold, sell and watch - Round 3

Michael Di Lonardo

NRL Supercoach 2019: Who to buy, hold, sell and watch - Round 3 image

Round three marks the first price rise for most players, making it a crucial week of trading.

Two weeks have given us a slight window to assess our best and worst selections, getting important insight into minutes, base stats and form of the 16 NRL clubs.

Some cheapies outmastered others, while some guns fell short of our expectations.

Scroll down to see what moves you need to make in order to make the most profits. Judge us on our assessment from last round.

WHO TO BUY IN SUPERCOACH

Tom Trbojevic FLB - $691,200

Tom Trbojevic

Round 2 score: N/A

Ownership: 2.8%

Breakeven:  N/A

Why: Help is on the way for Manly, and it could also rescue your Supercoach side. Tom Trbojevic will make his highly-anticipated return this week against the Warriors and at an ownership of 2.9%, his POD value is irresistible. Never again will Trbojevic's ownership number be so low. Reliable at fullback, Turbo has averaged over 74 points in the past two seasons and his attacking value to Manly is evident in their recent struggles. Most Supercoaches won't have the cash nor the trades to burn with issues needing to be attended elsewhere before the first price rise, but for those unsatisfied with the start of James Tedesco or Kalyn Ponga - Trbojevic is your man.

Sam Burgess 2RF FRF - $560,000

Round 1 score: 128

Ownership: 24.3%

Breakeven: -12

Why: What more needs to be said really? Burgess is the second-highest scoring player in the first two rounds behind Robbie Farah on the back of his try-scoring antics. His numbers are unsustainable, but there is still value in his selection. Some have raised concerns about his base stat numbers, averaging 49 in the first two rounds - the lowest he has achieved in four seasons. But it would be ignorant to disregard the upside in his attacking value as a result of his shift to the second-row. He currently averages 35.5 PPG in scoring and line breaks - career-high numbers - and certainly won't continue down that path, but the fact his move out wide has made those points available creates excitement around the Rabbitohs leader. There's also a price rise to look forward to, set to earn around $80K over the next two weeks if he can average 60. Don't disregard Burgess potentially becoming an 80-minute player too, missing 14 minutes in round one due to a HIA and only eight minutes in round two when the game was dead and buried. Historically, Burgess has averaged around 70 minutes, but rarely has he been on the edge.

Robbie Farah HOK - $581,800

Round 2 score: 123

Ownership: 2.5%

Breakeven: -41

Why: This one is targeted to the Josh Hodgson owners. Cameron Smith owners should stay loyal (see below). Two consecutive centuries make it impossible to ignore Farah on this week's buy list, but do take caution. Farah's podium position on the try-scorers list won't last forever and the Tigers are known to start quick out of the blocks. But playing 80 minutes is a huge tick on our checklist and his burst of form could be the real deal. When playing 80 minutes last year, Farah averaged an incredible 77.1 across six games. What scares us is Michael Maguire carries either Josh Reynolds or Jacob Liddle in his extended squad and could pull the trigger on one of them at any point.

Shaun Lane 2RF - $508,000

shaun lane

Round 2 score:  71

Ownership: 16.7%

Breakeven:  25

Why:  Lane has hit back-to-back 70s in his early Eels career with some eye-catching attacking stats. His offloading abilities have helped him average 10.5 in evade stats, while he has notched both a try and try assist in the first two rounds. Lane's base stats, averaging 45, are decent, but nothing to gush over. The Eels have utilised him to his fullest in attack, popping his head through the line with a number of charges off Dylan Brown. An entertaining purchase and was listed as one of our top PODs to start the year.

David Klemmer FRF - $538,500

Round 1 score:  60

Ownership: 14.9%

Breakeven:  49

Why: For those chasing a consistent scorer, Klemmer is the competition's latest 60/60 player thanks to a healthy minutes bump. Nathan Brown is sapping the most out of his prized recruit, giving him 64 minutes in the first two rounds - an eight-minute increase from last year. It has translated to respectable scores of 69 and 60, with majority produced from his insanely high base stat numbers of 60.5 per game. Averaging over a 1 PPM for majority of his career, Klemmer is a safe bet.

Jack Bird CTW 5/8 - $320,900

Round 2 score: 65

Ownership: 18.8%

Breakeven: -2

Why:  If you thought Bird was burnt out, think again. The former Shark finally discovered the form that earned him NSW selection over two years ago, claiming two try assists on a dangerous left edge combination with Corey Oates. Bird's base stat numbers were solid, averaging 35 PPG, and his willingness to get involved is an indicator he will play a key role in Brisbane's premiership bid. One of the better choices at CTW.

Clint Gutherson FLB CTW - $439,300

Round 2 score: 92

Ownership: 10.9%

Breakeven: -4

Why: Promoted from our watchlist last week, Gutherson was straight fire in Parramatta's win over Canterbury, producing two tries on either side of half-time to put the game to bed. Like Bird, Gutherson is prepared to do the dirty work, averaging 31 PPG in base stats. The Eels attack has forgotten its demons from last year and clicked into gear with the resurgence of Gutherson, the rise of Dylan Brown and the control of Mitchell Moses. With dual-positioning at CTW, his price is enticing. There is a vast range of options out there, however, and it could keep his ownership numbers at bay.

 

Our buy selections from last week that paid off: John Bateman (69 points), Braidon Burns (77 points), Paul Vaughan (56 minutes, 52 points), Mitchell Moses (11 breakeven, 46 points), Luke Garner (-42 breakeven, 50 points).

Our buy selections from last week that hurt: Matt Gillett (35 points, 55 minutes), Jacob Host (61 minutes, 24 points)

WHO TO HOLD IN SUPERCOACH

Cameron Smith HOK - $594,400

Cameron Smith

Round 2 score: 46

Ownership: 24.5%

Breakeven: 93

Why:  With a lack of quality at hooker, Smith is still a top three option next to Damien Cook and the resurgent Robbie Farah. Smith has put up decent base numbers with 41.5 PPG but his attacking scores have been down. We have been curious about round two's scoring with the NRL official stats highlighting Smith registered a try assist for his pass to Nelson Asofa-Solomona. It should have been included, even under the new last pass assist Supercoach laws. The Melbourne hooker hasn't showed signs of wear and tear and off history, you have to trust him. Also the only hooker that goal-kicks.

James Tedesco FLB - $689,000

Round 2 score: 52

Ownership: 28.3%

Breakeven: 153

Why: Shockingly, Tedesco is currently the 17th highest scoring FLB after a second place finish last year. It has projected him to lose around $60K in a significant drop, but he is more than capable of earning it back. Trust his record, averaging over 70 for the past four seasons bar 2017 where he recorded a 68 average. As mentioned before, those fearing losing cash could jump on Tom Trbojevic. If Tedesco doesn't perform this week he could start bleeding cash.

 

Our holds from last week that paid off: Dylan Napa (87 points), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (50 points, 0 breakeven), Kalyn Ponga (62 points), Shaun Johnson (59 points), Martin Taupau (73 points), Nathan Cleary (63 points)

Our holds from last week that hurt: Kerrod Holland (30 points), Victor Radley (40 points), James Tedesco (52 points), Paul Momirovski (DNP)

WHO TO SELL IN SUPERCOACH

Latrell Mitchell CTW - $595,000

Latrell Mitchell

Round 2 score: 29

Ownership: 40.2%

Breakeven: 123

Why: It's a bold call on the highest-owned premium CTW, but considering the depth out there you can afford to lose Latrell for now. John Bateman, Braidon Burns, Clint Gutherson and Jack Bird are far cheaper options with greater upside. Mitchell is capable at going off at any time, but as it stands the CTW position is where most of the profit lies and carrying a premium at that price with a breakeven of 123 is unnecessary baggage.

Victor Radley 2RF HOK - $400,700

Round 2 score:  40

Ownership:  24.7%

Breakeven:  61

Why:  Another Rooster we are willing to let slide, Radley hasn't been able to capitalise on a sizeable minutes increase, averaging just 36 points off 71 minutes at a woeful PPM of 51. He may have played his last game in an unfamiliar hooker role, but with 80 minutes in the middle you'd expect better than a score of 40 for a player who prides himself on defence. We marked him as a trap to start the year and are really frosty on him now.

Paul Momirovski CTW - $238,600

Round 2 score:  N/A

Ownership:  7.8%

Breakeven:  31

Why: Momirovski has fallen victim to the return of Moses Mbye, pushed out of the Tigers' 17 with Robert Jennings starting at centre. Not worth keeping at that awkward price.

Kerrod Holland CTW - $428,100

Round 2 score: 30

Ownership: 4.4%

Breakeven: 76

Why:  We were in the 10% of original Supercoaches to fall for this trap and feel foolish for it. Holland showed so much promise during Canterbury's purple patch of form at the back end of last year, racking up a healthy balance of base and attacking stats. But the Bulldogs are barely anywhere near that side that finished off 2018 with a hot streak and Holland has been one of the faces of their slow start. With Rhyse Martin back, he could even be stripped of the goal-kicking duties.

Josh Papalii 2RF FRF - $595,900

Round 2 score: 49

Ownership: 9.4%

Breakeven: 102

Why:  Moving to prop has stripped away all of Papalii's Supercoach value, limited to just 48 minutes per game. He still boasts a tasty PPM of 1, but he is now in a rotation with four other middle forwards plus he is competing with John Bateman hogging up 80 minutes.

Jason Taumalolo 2RF - $657,400

Round 2 score:  19

Ownership: 45.1%

Breakeven: 100

Why:  Still at 45.1% ownership, Taumalolo needs to be sacked with an expected 6-10 week injury lay-off with an MCL tear. Not worth stashing away despite his emphatic round one display.

Junior Tatola FRF - $224,200

Round 2 score: 36

Ownership:  14.3%

Breakeven: 8

Why:  Not turning out to be the cheapie everyone had dreamed about, Tatola has seen only 35 minutes of game time in a starting role - not enough to make serious coin. And with the impending return of George Burgess, that number could soon shrink.

Lachlan Fitzgibbon 2RF - $576,100

Round 2 score: 40

Ownership: 9.9%

Breakeven: 109

Why:  Fitzgibbon's dependence on tries has been highlighted in the first two rounds, averaging just 41 with Newcastle's attack adjusting to its spine shake-up. Has the capabilities of going large but hasn't been able to bust the line yet. Not consistent enough.

 

Our sell selections from last week that paid off: Corey Allan and Bailey Simonsson (DNP), Nathan Brown (DNP, injured), Gareth Widdop (28 points), Jordan Kahu (47 points, playing centre this week and possibly no goal-kicking)

Our sell selections that didn't pay off: Thomas Flegler (65 points)

WHO TO WATCH IN SUPERCOACH

James Tamou FRF - $423,500

Round 2 score: 58

Ownership: 4.1%

Breakeven: -23

Why: Where have these minutes come from? Playing around 50 minutes for most of his career, Tamou has been a prominent figure in the Panthers pack over the last fortnight, averaging 60 minutes per game. Having not fallen below a PPM of 1.04 dating back to 2015, Tamou could be a serious heavyweight front-row option. We need another week to make sure Ivan Cleary is sticking to his forward rotation. Keep in mind that when Viliame Kikau comes back, James Fisher-Harris will return as a middle forward and the rotation could change. Kikau isn't expected back until round six.

David Fifita 2RF - $456,600

Round 2 score: 50

Ownership: 6.3%

Breakeven: 69

Why: Fifita played 80 minutes on the edge for Brisbane, but will Seibold stick with his young gun? The Brisbane forward was one of our top mid-range prospects before being named on the bench, but the recent promotion has got us thinking. It's a wait-and-see given the return of Matt Lodge next week who could force another reshuffle.

Blake Lawrie FRF - $216,600

Round 2 score: 42

Ownership: 2.2%

Breakeven: -26

Why:  Both a cheapie and a POD, Lawrie has retained the starting lock position even in the presence of Korbin Sims. But how much time Sims chews off the youngster remains a question. There's also the fact that Tyson Frizell is only a few weeks away from returning. He may see a few decent price rises before then if he can keep his playing time at the 55-minute mark.

Michael Di Lonardo

Michael Di Lonardo Photo