The NRL grand final is nearly here, with the Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers to go toe-to-toe for the 2024 premiership.
Can the Storm stop the Panthers' quest for an historic 'four-peat'? Will Nathan Cleary claim another Clive Churchill Medal? And who bags the all-important first try of the game?
The Sporting News team give their best bets for Sunday's clash below.
MORE: Confirmed team lists for NRL grand final
All odds via Sportsbet.
Panthers' defence to be the difference in close decider
Overall, Melbourne have been the best team in the NRL this season, but there is one key metric where Penrith have an advantage – points against.
The Storm have conceded an average of 18.7 points per game in 2024, while the Panthers have allowed a league-best 16.4.
In what is expected to be a tight grand final, the reigning champions' defence could be the difference.
Another factor is each team's designated goal kicker. Penrith's Nathan Cleary has slotted 85 per cent of his conversions this campaign, while Melbourne's Nick Meaney has a smaller 78 per cent success rate.
The Storm undeniably have the attacking talent to pile on the points and make conversions irrelevant, but whether they can do it in the biggest game of the year against the league's best defensive side is another question.
As for the first tryscorer, one of the four centres is a good shout. Penrith should settle quickest, with Paul Alamoti a candidate to sneak across the line as defenders focus on the dangerous Brian To'o.
In his last game for the club, I'm also tipping James Fisher-Harris as the Clive Churchill Medal winner. The prop has the potential to shine in a physical encounter.
PREDICTION: Panthers by 2
BEST BET: Either team by 8 or less ($2.05)
FIRST TRYSCORER: Paul Alamoti ($19.00)
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: James Fisher-Harris ($31.00)
- Joshua Mayne
Storm to close in on Penrith dynasty
While the Panthers' win over the Sharks may have looked comfortable on paper, Melbourne's ruthlessness in brushing aside the Roosters last Friday was the standout headline from last week's preliminary finals.
Even without Nelson Asofa-Solomona, the Storm look to be the form side heading into this one and they'll go in with plenty of confidence, having defeated Penrith twice already this season.
Back in round one, Melbourne did the almost unthinkable in keeping a virtually full-strength Panthers outfit scoreless in an 8-0 win.
Not since the Storm defended a clean sheet against them in 2015 had Penrith been kept to zero.
We expect that defensive resistence, combined with the Storm's potent attack - they're averaging almost 43 points scored across their past five games - should be enough to end the Panthers' stranglehold on the premiership.
Halfback Jahrome Hughes has arguably been the competition's best player in 2024, mercurial five-eighth Cameron Munster looks to be finding top form with three tries in the past two games and Clive Churchill Medal-winning fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen got in on the act with two tries against the Roosters.
While Penrith will have no shortage of motivation as Jarome Luai and James Fisher-Harris play their final games for the club, the stars appear to be aligning for yet another Craig Bellamy and Storm masterclass.
PREDICTION: Storm by 10
BEST BET: Storm H2H + Ryan Papenhuyzen anytime try scorer ($3.75)
FIRST TRYSCORER: Liam Martin ($21)
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: Jahrome Hughes ($4.50)
- Tom Naghten
Panthers take path through the middle to immortality
No Nelson Asofa-Solomona gives the Panthers a target area they're familiar with. Outside of the Sharks (21%), Penrith are the only top eight side in 2024 to score more than 20% of their tries through the middle (24% with 26 of their total 109 tries scored).
As the game progresses, look for Penrith to exploit the only discernible weakness in Melbourne's defence: their rotation middle defence. 25-year-old Lazarus Vaalepu makes his way onto the bench with Tui Kamikamica set to make his 15th start of the year up front.
Combinations are everything at this level and Penrith's pivots will no doubt have time behind the Panthers' phenomenal go-forward to send Liam Martin at a fatigued middle or Dylan Edwards through the middle in broken play.
The Panthers have conceded an average of 9.6 points in their last 11 matches but this Storm side is in rare air. Expect the game to be in the balance up until the final minute with experienced campaigners on both sides - a total of 48 grand final appearances across the two teams - believing until the very end.
Should Cleary succumb to injury and Brad Schneider takes his place, look for Isaah Yeo and Jarome Luai to step up and maintain pressure on Melbourne's middles.
PREDICTION: Panthers by 4
BEST BET: Brian To'o to score first, second or third try ($3.30)
FIRST TRYSCORER: Dylan Edwards ($13)
CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: Isaah Yeo ($11)
- Chris Danks
