NRL grand final tips: Best bets, predictions for Penrith Panthers vs. Brisbane Broncos

Joshua Mayne

Liam O'Loughlin

Chris Danks

NRL grand final tips: Best bets, predictions for Penrith Panthers vs. Brisbane Broncos image

The NRL grand final is nearly here, with the Penrith Panthers and Brisbane Broncos to go toe-to-toe for the 2023 premiership. 

Can the Broncos upset the Panthers, who are pushing for an historic three-peat? Is Nathan Cleary a lock for the Clive Churchill Medal? And who bags the all-important first try of the game?

The Sporting News team give their best bets for Sunday's showdown below.

All odds courtesy of DABBLEWHAT'S GAMBLING REALLY COSTING YOU? 

MORE: Walsh, Johnson headline The Sporting News' Team of the Year

Cleary to guide Panthers to dominant grand final win

Not exactly an interesting prediction, but it is hard to see this classy Penrith side losing on Sunday. 

They dismantled the Warriors and Storm in their previous two finals games, scoring 30+ points and conceding less than 10 in both matches. 

The Broncos represent a tougher challenge, notably when it comes to their explosive attack. 

However, there were a couple of defensive lapses in Brisbane's preliminary final, allowing their opponents to score three first-half tries.

If the Panthers even get a sniff in the grand final, you can be confident that Nathan Cleary and his efficient team will make the Broncos pay.  

Penrith's consistency over 80 minutes will also put fear in Kevin Walters' team, with the ability to maintain their high attacking and defensive standards on either side of half-time. 

BEST BET: Panthers to win both halves ($3.20)

FIRST TRYSCORER: Izack Tago ($13.00)

CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: Nathan Cleary ($3.50)

- Joshua Mayne

Patrick Carrigan leads Broncos to nail-biting premiership win

Brisbane will be looking to cap off a remarkable campaign on Sunday night — and they'll also be hoping to break a 17-year premiership drought in the process against the Panthers. 

The two sides have squared off twice this season, with the Broncos taking out the opening-round clash by one point before the reigning champs bounced back in Round 12 with an 11-point triumph. 

Penrith's defence has been a staple of their last two title victories, but the attack of Brisbane will pose a bigger threat than what they have encountered in their previous two finals games.

The two sides have blown their rivals out of the water in both the prelim and qualifying finals, with their combined winning margins sitting at 56 and 60 points respectively, but will face a tougher task this time around. 

Given all the talent on both sides of the ball for Brisbane and Penrith, let's go with a narrow margin and the underdogs getting over the line, exorcising the demons from their extra-time 2015 loss to the Cowboys. 

As for a tryscorer bet, look to departing centre Herbie Farnworth to bag a four-pointer in his last game for the Broncos - particularly given he will be up against Izack Tago, who is still below 100 per cent due to a pectoral injury. 

As for the man of the match honours, Patrick Carrigan will be at the forefront of any potential win for the Broncos, with the lock-forward capable of playing big minutes and posing a massive game-changing threat with or without the ball. 

BEST BET: Brisbane Broncos by 1-5 points ($7.50)

FIRST TRYSCORER: Herbie Farnworth ($17)

CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: Patrick Carrigan ($13)

Liam O'Loughlin (@ljoloughlin)

Slow start cruels Broncos as Panthers' class shines through

The Broncos are second only to Penrith in scoring prowess in 2023 but under the weight of expectation of their first grand final since 2015 and without a premiership since 2006, the Panthers' defence will keep the scoreline in their favour in the early stages.

Should Brisbane trail at half time, footy stats savants will be able to trot out an old favourite: Penrith have lost just one half-time lead in 73 games.

Both sides average 27 points a game but expect a match dominated by the forwards battle, with Penrith the first side to go back-to-back-to-back in the NRL era.

BEST BET: Panthers win, To'o anytime tryscorer, S. Crichton anytime try scorer ($6)

FIRST TRYSCORER: Brian To'o ($8)

CLIVE CHURCHILL MEDAL WINNER: Liam Martin ($17)

- Chris Danks (@DanksDiscussion)

Joshua Mayne

Joshua Mayne Photo

Joshua Mayne is a content producer for The Sporting News Australia based in Sydney, Australia. He has previously worked as a newsreader at 2SER and journalist at Ministry of Sport. While Joshua’s main passions are football, rugby league, basketball and F1, he will watch any sport that's on. He is still waiting for Arsenal to win the Premier League again. 

 

Liam O'Loughlin

Liam O'Loughlin Photo

Liam has been with The Sporting News since 2019, helping lead both NRL and cricket content, as well as delving into the world of combat sports and NFL. A true rugby league tragic, he has spent the past 20 years playing, coaching and volunteering for his beloved junior club, Penshurst RSL. 

Away from work, Liam has a lifelong passion for all things pro wrestling and has travelled abroad to attend showcase events for WWE, AEW and NJPW. 

 

Chris Danks

Chris Danks Photo

After a failed athletic career in a far-flung land where delusions of former grandeur are hard to verify, Chris found a home as Sporting News Australia's Chief Editor, delivering fans original news and context beyond the box score.