The 2024 NRL regular season has concluded, with only eight teams left looking to secure ultimate glory.
Melbourne has wrapped up the minor premiership, with the reigning champions Penrith viewed as their biggest threats.
The Roosters and Sharks will look to cause an upset in week one, whilst the elimination finals have two tight matchups that could go either way.
The Sporting News looks at who is favourite to come out victorious on Grand Final day.
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Who will win the 2024 NRL Grand Final? Betting odds to win Grand Final
Two teams are standout favourites to be involved in this year's grand final according to the bookmakers – Melbourne and Penrith.
Both sides had dominant wins in week one over the Roosters and Sharks, and will now have a week off before the preliminary final; both sides are rated as $2.40 chances to win the Grand Final and $1.28 to meet in the big dance.
The four teams fighting it out in this weeks semi-finals are not given much of a chance, with the Roosters, Sharks and Sea Eagles at $14.00, $15.00 and $16.00 respectively, whilst the Cowboys are further back at $20.00 to pull off an unlikely Grand Final win.
Odds via Sportsbet, updated September 16
| Team | Odds to win Grand Final | Odds to make Grand Final |
|---|---|---|
| Penrith Panthers | $2.40 | $1.28 |
| Melbourne Storm | $2.40 | $1.28 |
| Sydney Roosters | $14.00 | $5.50 |
| Cronulla Sharks | $15.00 | $5.50 |
| Manly Sea Eagles | $19.00 | $6.50 |
| North Queensland Cowboys | $20.00 | $6.50 |
Who will qualify for the Grand Final? Predictions and analysis
History tells us it is highly likely the two grand final teams will come from the top four, with just two instances of teams outside of the top four reaching the big dance since the finals system was changed in 2012.
These teams were the Bulldogs in 2014 (7th) and the North Queensland Cowboys in 2017 (8th); on both occasions, those underdogs were handed a heavy defeat in the decider.
Finals week two predictions
- Winners: North Queensland Cowboys and Manly Sea Eagles
We are going out on a limb and predicting two big upsets in the semi-finals, though when you look at the facts deeper, there is some method to the madness.
The Sharks will 'host' the Cowboys at Allianz Stadium on Friday looking to overcome a horror run in the finals which has seen them lose their last seven finals games.
One of these came against the Cowboys, and we are picking them to pull off a finals win on the road against the Sharks once again, sending them back to the Shire in straight sets.
Saturday's semi-final between the Roosters and Sea Eagles could be a thriller, and we are predicting a Manly side full of confidence after knocking off the Bulldogs could end the season for an injury hit Roosters side who were well past their best against the Panthers in week one.
If these results happen, it would be the first time since the finals format changed in 2012 that both losers from the qualifying final were eliminated a week later in the semi-final.
Preliminary finals predictions
- Winners: Melbourne Storm and Penrith Panthers
History dictates the teams with a week off will often ultimately qualify for the Grand Final, and we think this will be the case here.
We are predicting minor premiers Melbourne will reach their first Grand Final since 2020 with a win over traditional rivals Manly in Melbourne, in a throwback to some of their fierce finals battles in the late 2000s.
North Queensland have gone on a fairytale run to the big dance once before, but Penrith's quality and big game experience should ensure they qualify for a scarcely believable fifth Grand Final in a row.
Given how the top two teams dispatched of their opponents in week one, it is difficult to see them skipping a beat, especially after having a week off to rest and recover.
Grand Final prediction
- 2024 NRL Premiership winners: Melbourne Storm
We think we will see a repeat of the 2020 Grand Final, which given how things have gone since then feels like ancient history.
Four years ago Penrith came into the game on the back of an amazing winning run but their mistakes were punished with ruthless efficiency by a Storm side who at one stage led 26-0.
A late fightback from the Panthers fell agonisingly short, but the pain from the defeat helped drive Penrith on to create their three-peat dynasty.
It's hard to see a similar result happening, instead a tight grind between two experienced and quality sides, with one looking to continue their dynasty and the other looking to return to the top.
All good things must come to an end, and we think - like in 2020 - the Storm will emerge victorious and end Penrith's reign of dominance in what could be a match for the ages.
When is the 2024 NRL Grand Final?
The 2024 NRL Grand Final will be held on October 6 at Accor Stadium in Sydney, which has hosted every version of the Grand Final bar one since 1999.
The biggest game of the season is slated to be held at the venue every year until at least 2046; the only time the Grand Final was held outside of the stadium since 1999 was in 2021 due to COVID restrictions limiting games to only be played in Queensland, with the big dance being played at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane.
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