When Tom Brady declared he’ll be returning for another season with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only two months after announcing his retirement, fans responded with shock, confusion and excitement. But there is one fan in particular who likely took the news harder than anyone else.
Just a day earlier, Brady’s last touchdown ball was sold to a collector for half a million USD.
Aside from a shift in historical significance, myriad factors can influence and dampen the value of any given piece of sports memorabilia. Despite being an industry worth more than $5 billion USD a year, according to Nasdaq.com, it’s more likely than not that most sports collectibles have more sentimental value than dollar value.
Here’s a look at five memorabilia categories that are likely better dinner party icebreakers than retirement nest egg.
Autographs
According to a 2015 report from Professional Sports Authenticator (PSA), 50 per cent of all autographs on resell market are forged. Babe Ruth is at the top of the most-forged list; other big names in the top-ten most commonly faked signatures include Michael Jordon, Muhammad Ali, and Tom Brady.
The PSA report notes not all fake autographs are produced to deceit collectors- often they’re products of convenience signed by assistants or secretaries.
Books, magazines and newspapers
Regardless of how old they might be, publications are by nature mass-produced. Unless they feature an authenticated autograph, or is confirmed to be extremely rare, chances are they won’t see significant appreciation over time.
Commercial collectibles
Balls, jerseys, plaques, or any sort of sports paraphernalia produced and marketed as ‘collectibles’ are unlikely to be worth much based solely on their mass-produced nature. These often turn up at garage sales or online auction sites, with no personal significance or connections to players or teams that issue them.
Game-worn gear
Game-worn jerseys are dangerous grounds unless they have autographs or paperwork from players confirming their authenticity. The profits that come with selling game-worn gear with dodgy origins is so great that industry insiders, including American footballer Eli Manning and the Giants, have been taken to court for allegedly passing off generic items as game-used to dealers and auctioneers.
Authenticated and unidentifiable game-worn gear became such a problem that American footballer Emmitt Smith was inspired to launch Prova after seeing a helmet with his own forged autograph for sale at a shop.
Prova authenticates and puts identification chips into game jerseys.
Trading Cards
Whenever there’s a headline about a record-shattering sale of a vintage baseball card, auctioneers and resellers use it as confirmation that the collectable card industry is thriving and lucrative. Cards that fetch high prices are old, incredibly rare ,and often signed.
In reality, however, the card market is flooded with mass-printed cards that have little appreciation potential. Buying cards in bulk in hopes of a big future payout is a bad idea. First and foremost, make sure you love and enjoy them for what they are before making a purchase– don’t expect to get Honus Wagner prices for your collection of hobby store cards.
