The 2024/25 Premier League kicks off on August 16 and the EPL title battle is expected to be as tight as ever.
Pep Guardiola led Manchester City to a record-breaking fourth successive top-flight crown at the end of last season as he edged out Arsenal and Mikel Arteta by two points.
Both sides are ready to go all-out for the title once again, with Liverpool starting life under Arne Slot, alongside big-spending Manchester United and Chelsea.
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The title charge, the race for Europe and the dreaded relegation scrap will all feature once again across another mammoth campaign.
With plenty on the line, OPTA's supercomputer has run the numbers, by simulating the 2024-25 Premier League season 10,000 times to see how the final rankings will shape up.
Let's take a look at how AI thinks will end the campaign on top.
EPL title favourites - Manchester City
Any fans looking for a surprise in the 2024/25 EPL title bout will be disappointed as Man City are heavily backed to win five in a row under Guardiola.
Across the total results, eight different teams won the Premier League title at least once, however, no team finished as champions more often than Guardiola's charges with an 82% win rate.
𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐞𝐫 𝐋𝐞𝐚𝐠𝐮𝐞 𝐏𝐫𝐞𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬: 2024-25 📈
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) August 12, 2024
The Opta supercomputer has just played out the 2024-25 Premier League season 10,000 times, so it's time to reveal the results.
Here are Opta's pre-season Premier League projections...
That number underlines just how dominant City have been in recent seasons, but it's slight drop from the supercomputer's picks ahead of the 2023/24 campaign, with a 90% chance of glory.
Arsenal's current data outlines a 12% chance of claiming a first EPL title under Arteta before the ball gets rolling on 2024/25.
EPL top four favourites - Manchester City, Arsenal, Liverpool Chelsea or Newcastle
Unsurprisingly, with City the firm title favorites, and Arsenal rated as the second most likely to claim the crown, both teams are an effective certainty to claim a top-four spot and UEFA Champions League qualification for 2025/26.
Liverpool have been given a 5% chance of winning the title and the data is backing Slot to seal another top-four spot on Merseyside.
The big question focuses on who will claim the final Champions League place with Man United, Chelsea, Tottenham, Aston Villa and Newcastle all in the running.
Unai Emery led Villa to a first-ever Champions League qualification at the end of last season but the supercomputer is predicting a dip from them in the months ahead.
Narrowing in on the top four focused data, the two current picks are Chelsea and Newcastle, with 32.% and 27% chances respectively.
Chelsea opted to remove Mauricio Pochettino earlier this summer, with Enzo Maresca stepping in as his replacement, after leading Leicester City to EPL promotion.
Despite finishing outside the EPL top four in successive seasons, the quality available to Maresca remains a key factor, if the Italian coach can implement his methods to positive effect.
Eddie Howe led Newcastle to the top four in 2022/23, but they slipped to seventh last season, with serious injury issues on Tyneside.
Keeping his main players fit is vital, but with no European action this season, the Magpies can focus solely on domestic matters.
EPL relegation favourites - Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town
The Premier League can be brutal for newly-promoted teams as the gap from the EFL Championship to the top flight grows each year.
The 2023/24 season saw a key change in the relegation battle, as Luton Town, Burnley and Sheffield United all slipped back through the trap door, after one season in the EPL.
It was the first time since the 1997/98 season in which all three promoted teams were immediately relegated, with Everton and Nottingham Forest surviving, despite points deductions.
However, despite the overall EPL picture suggesting at least one of the new guys will survive, the supercomputer is predicting all three to go straight back down.
Southampton and Ipswich Town both have unproven Premier League managers, Russell Martin and Kieran McKenna, with their relegation rates set at 67% and 65% respectively.
Leicester City are given a chance, under new boss Steve Cooper, but they are rated at 60% to be relegated.
