Sometimes a quarterback prospect is a runaway, like Cam Newton in 2011 or Andrew Luck in 2012. But in most cases it’s a battle between two, three or more QBs.
The 2015 QB class is weaker than most. After Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, there may not be a passer worth taking before the third round. That’s what makes the Winston vs. Mariota debate such a fierce and determinant battle.
While Winston offers NFL-readiness and anticipation, Mariota offers a character issue-less background and an athletic upside. The questions: Which attributes will teams value most? And which will make for a better NFL passer?
Mental make-up
This category is intentionally broad, as a full article could be written for each quarterback on his mental make-up, off-field history, leadership and overall character as it relates to NFL success.
Mariota is just who you’d expect based on media portrayal: honest, appreciative, humble and a sparkling away-from-football background. His genuine nature will be tested, and he’ll have ample growing pains. But in terms of work ethic, focus and professionalism, he does more than "check the boxes" for NFL teams. Mariota is the type that general managers and coaches want to build locker rooms around.
Winston's character has been in spotlight about as much as Johnny Manziel's a year ago. Between his sexual assault case, shoplifting of crab legs and inappropriate comments, many outside the league have already chastised Winston as an immature young man. Those red flags will ask the "trust" question, but NFL decision-makers are concerned with two aspects: Is he mature enough to develop as a professional? And will his past offenses lead to future off-field embarrassment? If Winston can calm concerns on those two fronts, he’ll be the No. 1 quarterback.
Edge: Mariota
NFL readiness; football IQ
Hailing from a spread, read-predetermined offense, Mariota is expected to struggle early. Oregon's scheme doesn't feature nearly as many pre-snap adjustments as Florida State's, and Mariota must prove (on the whiteboard and in individual workouts) he has the mental capacity and ability to learn NFL-level reads, route combinations and pre-snap control. A key aspect, however, is that just because Mariota didn't use NFL-style nuances in college doesn't mean he can't learn in the pros.
Winston has a clear advantage in this realm. Running a far more pro-style system in college, he was asked to anticipate coverage and rushes more often than Mariota (and most QB prospects). Winston's 2013 and 2014 film indicates a high-level understanding of offensive concepts. His decision-making was a concern in 2014, but in terms of managing NFL-level reads, Winston already exceeds most QBs of the past few years outside of Andrew Luck.
Edge: Winston
Post-snap reads
With post-snap reads, we encompass progressions, anticipation and decision-making. Mariota's "football IQ" deficiencies carry over here, as he's more of a question mark in terms of whether he can be more than a predetermined spot thrower. He shows ability to progress half-field with success, and he uses his eyes to direct safeties. But Mariota must speed up decision-making and anticipate route breaks with better instincts.
Like the previous category, Winston easily wins this one. His anticipation is elite, he has multiple-read confidence, and if he can ease his decision-making with more composure and trust in his reads at the next level, there's no reason why he can't be a successful NFL starter early.
Edge: Winston
Mechanics, footwork, athleticism
Grouping these three fundamentals seems odd, but considering the idea that top-end running ability has proven to be an ease for technique concerns (especially with Newton and Colin Kaepernick), it’s not farfetched.
Mariota's footwork doesn’t feature as much comfort as it relates to NFL-style drops, but he sets his feet with control and balance, generating velocity from his lower half. On the move, he's able to keep his shoulders square and his lower half poised. With his ideal body type and release point offering quickness and fluidity, Mariota meets fundamental thresholds for teams to develop … but not worry about. His running ability and natural athleticism are available for NFL offensive coordinators to rely on.
The fundamental aspect of Winston's game is where throwing concerns creep in. While he’s sped up and cleaned his release since 2013, it’s still a potential issue. Winston uses a slight wind and drops the ball below his shoulder, especially on the move. His throws aren’t always tight, and due to his release point, his balls tend to drift to the right, causing placement issues on touch passes and throws outside the hashes. Winston is an adequate runner, but he's not at the level of what has become a top "mobile passer" by today’s standards in the NFL.
Edge: Mariota
Arm strength; accuracy
Mariota's arm strength from the pocket offers ample velocity on interior throws, vertical edge passes and short-area timing routes. With great arm strength across the field and velocity control to defeat zone coverage, his biggest issues placement-wise stem from vertical accuracy on outside-the-hash "bucket throws," as well as adjusting footwork to secondary reads and spinning a clean, accurate ball.
Winston's arm strength offers the same meeting of thresholds. He offers plus velocity when he's set in the pocket and, when outside the pocket, is still able to generate strength. Accuracy-wise, Winston is remarkably efficient on short- and mid-field throws. While his decision-making issues lead to some missed opportunities, Winston's ability to fit throws into tight windows is unique. Release point and inconsistent timing are the issues.
Edge: tie
Winner
Winston, as of now, appears to have a leg up on Mariota as the No. 1 quarterback in this class. But off-field and fundamental issues make the race closer than some believe.
Both have issues that must be cleaned up in order to be prepared to inherit an NFL offense, and neither is ready to step in and guide a team to the playoffs. This debate will surely continue through the summer.
So as rankings flip-flop over the next few months, just remember the winner won't be decided until well after draft day.