The Royals have had back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since the strike-shortened 1994, will be trying to make it three in a row for the first time since 1987-89 and, of course, will be trying to make back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time since 1984-85.
Last year, the Royals got the tying run to third base in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the World Series. They proved that Kansas City catenaccio — having above-average starting pitchers who can go six or seven innings, allowing two or three runs, then scratching out enough runs to win and relying on a lockdown bullpen — is a worthwhile strategy. Now, the trick will be doing it all over again.
So, what can be expected from the Royals in 2015? Here are five predictions.
1. Boom, Yosted
The Royals, for all the attention garnered by their bunts in last year’s playoffs, only dropped down 33 sacrifices during the regular season, seventh in the American League. Kansas City also played only 47 games that were decided by one run, tied for eighth in the Junior Circuit and surprising considering the by-design lower run-scoring environment of their games. The Royals outperformed their Pythagorean expectation by five wins last year. The Royals will play more close games this year, and Ned Yost will call for more bunts. The Royals also will lead the American League in stolen bases for the third straight season, though they will not have anyone steal 40 individually.
2. Money for nothing
The Royals signed Alex Rios to a one-year, $11 million deal with an option for 2016. They signed Kendrys Morales to a two-year, $15.5 million deal with an option for 2017. They signed Edinson Volquez to a two-year, $17 million deal with an option for 2017. The trio will combine to contribute 1.2 wins above replacement for the 2015 Royals. Given Kansas City’s emphasis on defense and the 34-year-old Rios having faded as a right fielder since reaching baseball middle age, he’s only going to be playing about six innings in a lot of games, with Jarrod Dyson entering as a defensive replacement in center field as Lorenzo Cain slides over to right. Morales should bounce back from last year’s qualifying offer-shortened disaster, but that will mean putting up numbers on par with what Billy Butler did last year at a fraction of the price — technically a win for Kansas City. Volquez had a 4.15 FIP and 3.04 ERA last year. His career FIP is 4.32 with a 4.44 ERA. Regression will be painful.
3. Pitching in
If you look at Volquez as the replacement for departed free agent James Shields, you are doing it wrong. Shields’ replacement at the top of the rotation will be Yordano Ventura, who announced his presence to the world with seven innings of three-hit shutout ball in Game 6 of the World Series, with the Royals facing elimination. Ventura is 23 years old, throws ridiculously hard and has room to increase his strikeout rate and cut his walk rate. He had a 3.20 ERA and 3.60 FIP as a rookie, and both of those numbers will go down in 2015. Danny Duffy will take his step forward this year, too, emerging as a solid No. 2. Jason Vargas and Jeremy Guthrie will be their usual selves, playing into the Kansas City catenaccio style, and then there will be Volquez to round out a rotation that remains an overall underrated strength for Kansas City.
4. Ouch
The Royals had 10 players appear in 100 or more games last year, most in the American League and tied with the Brewers and Pirates for the major league lead. In fact, all 10 of those Royals who made triple-digit appearances played in at least 120 games, with that low figure belonging to Dyson, the regular contributor off the bench. The Royals also had four starting pitchers make at least 30 starts, with Duffy in the rotation for 25. It would be ghoulish to single out individuals who are going to suffer pain this year, and there is no suggestion that the Royals are about to embark on a 2014 Rangers-like season of misery, but there will be injuries, and the impact on a lineup that does not boast any kind of depth to speak of will be anything but negligible.
5. Royal stumble
It’s not going to be back to the bad old days of, well, 2012, but the Royals are headed for a losing record this year because even with all that Yost will do to try to get his team to manufacture runs, the supply line simply will not be there. With the White Sox on the rise and the Tigers and Indians remaining tough, it will be a fourth-place finish for a team that will be tougher to beat than the record indicates. The Royals won’t lose 90, and they will be able to head into 2016 thinking playoffs again, but after a magical ride through last October, this one is going to be bumpy.