Here are some cliff notes for the College Football Playoff committee, which will release its first set of rankings on Tuesday.
The committee will be asked to judge all those teams with one loss. Who did they lose to? Where did they lose? How bad did they lose? When did they lose?
It’s that revolving four-part question that will get rehashed over and over again. Like we said, we have cliff notes.
Forget the “eyeball test.” Here’s how the one-loss teams should be ranked based on their one loss.
1.Notre Dame (6-1)
One loss: at No. 2 Florida State 31-27 (Oct. 18)
Lowdown: We all know how that game ended, and Notre Dame did everything but beat the Seminoles last week. The Irish will have to win out with no conference championship game, but the four-team playoff appeal hasn’t changed.
2. Alabama (7-1)
One loss: at No. 11 Ole Miss 23-17 (Oct. 4)
Lowdown: The Crimson Tide lost on the road to one of the best defenses in the nation. Looking ahead, Alabama’s toughest remaining games are at LSU (Nov. 8) and at home against Mississippi State (Nov. 15) and Auburn (Nov. 29). That’s more than enough time to build up playoff capital.
3. Kansas State (6-1)
One loss: vs. No. 5 Auburn 20-14 (Sept. 18)
Lowdown: Kansas State fans still feel like they could’ve knocked off the defending SEC champions. The Wildcats won’t win on style points, though Saturday’s 23-0 against Texas was more dominating than it looks. There is still time to make an impression with road games at TCU (Nov. 8), West Virginia (Nov. 20) and Baylor (Dec. 6).
4. Michigan State (7-1)
One loss: at No. 3 Oregon 46-27 (Sept. 6)
Lowdown: Michigan State definitely passes the “eyeball test” on both sides of the ball and has another chance to prove it at home against Ohio State on Nov. 8. The only nit-pick is the Spartans were outscored 28-3 in the second half against the Ducks. That will come up again.
5. Oregon (7-1)
One loss: vs. Arizona 31-24 (Oct. 2)
Lowdown: The Ducks have figured out their offensive line issues since that loss to the Wildcats. Oregon is averaging 48.7 points per game the last three weeks, and they have that head-to-head trump cared against Michigan State. It’s about winning big from here on out.
6. Auburn (6-1)
One loss: at No. 3 Mississippi State 38-23 (Oct. 11)
Lowdown: The Tigers were handled in Starkville, but that loss will be forgiven if they can run the impossible challenge of winning at Ole Miss (Nov. 1), Georgia (Nov. 15) and Alabama (Nov. 29). Is there a team in the nation that could pull that off?
7. Ole Miss (7-1)
One loss: at No. 24 LSU (Oct. 25)
Lowdown: The Rebels’ were outmatched at Death Valley, but Ole Miss can still ride the nation’s top defense to an 11-win season. There’s no time to pout. Auburn rolls into Oxford next week.
8. Georgia (6-1)
One loss: at No. 24 South Carolina 38-35 (Sept. 13)
Lowdown: Georgia averages 43.4 points per game, and the loss to South Carolina happened early enough that the Bulldogs control their own destiny – with or without Todd Gurley. The Nov. 15 showdown with Auburn looms large.
9. TCU (6-1)
One loss: at No. 5 Baylor 61-58 (Oct. 11)
Lowdown: The Horned Frogs are doing their best to atone for that meltdown at Baylor. TCU blew out Oklahoma State 42-9 and Texas Tech 82-27 the last two weeks. This stretch at West Virginia (Nov. 1) and at home against Kansas State (Nov. 8) are the last chances to impress the committee.
10. Arizona (6-1)
One loss: vs. USC 28-26 (Oct. 11)
Lowdown: A missed field goal is the only thing keeping the Wildcats from the ranks of the unbeaten. If Arizona wins at UCLA next week, then expect the Wildcats to be 9-1 before the last two at Utah (Nov. 22) and at home against Arizona State (Nov. 28).
11. Nebraska (7-1)
One loss: at No. 10 Michigan State 27-22 (Oct. 4)
Lowdown: The good news for Nebraska is behind Ameer Abdullah, the Cornhuskers should get a chance to go 11-1 and get another crack at Michigan State or a shot at Ohio State in the Big Ten championship. The bad news is there is no margin for error.
12. Baylor (6-1)
One loss: at West Virginia 41-27 (Oct. 18)
Lowdown: The Bears took their medicine in Morgantown, and now they must run the table in the Big 12. The offense can put up points against anybody, and two big chances at Oklahoma (Nov. 8) and at home against Kansas State (Dec. 6) remain. Will that be enough?
13. Ohio State (6-1)
One loss: vs. Virginia Tech 35-21 (Sept. 6)
Lowdown: The Buckeyes can still win the Big Ten, but that loss to the Hokies looks worse with each week. A win against Michigan State on Nov. 8 would answer questions, especially after the two-overtime escape against Penn State. Don’t count the Buckeyes out.
14. Duke (6-1)
One loss: at Miami, Fla. 22-10 (Sept. 27)
Lowdown: The Blue Devils remain a factor in the ACC Coastal Division, and they could take an 11-1 record into a possible ACC championship rematch against Florida State. Would a win there get Duke into a very-different Final Four?
15. Utah (6-1)
One loss: at Washington State 28-27 (Sept. 27)
Lowdown: Utah’s lone loss at Washington State is bad, but the Utes have knocked off Michigan, UCLA and USC this season. The next four games (at Arizona State, vs. Oregon, at Stanford, vs. Arizona) could put this team in the national title picture.
16. East Carolina (6-1)
One loss: at No. 21 South Carolina (Sept. 6)
Lowdown: The Pirates likely aren’t playing for a playoff berth, but the Pirates are fighting with Marshall (8-0) for the Group of 5 bowl bid. Shane Carden and Justin Hardy also are on record-setting pace. Expect that to continue in the American Athletic Conference.
17. Arizona State (6-1)
One loss: vs. No. 21 UCLA 62-27 (Sept. 25)
Lowdown: The Sun Devils have the worst loss because they were blown out at home in primetime. Arizona State still has time to work their way up, and the next two home games vs. Utah and Notre Dame are the perfect opportunity.
18. Colorado State (7-1)
One loss: vs. Boise State 37-24 (Sept. 6)
Lowdown: Garrett Grayson passed for 390 yards and five TDs in a win against Wyoming on Saturday, and the Rams are very-much alive in the Mountain West Conference race. Colorado State still has road trips to San Jose State (Nov. 1) and Air Force (Nov. 28).
