TCU or Baylor. Baylor or TCU.
Let’s try a different argument before the next batch of College Football Rankings are released Tuesday. Let’s throw Ohio State into that mix. The Buckeyes might just be able to crawl into the four-team playoff at Baylor and TCU’s expense. That is, until we figure out what the committee will do with Mississippi State.
Don’t think it can happen? After TCU’s 34-30 escape against Kansas on Saturday, don’t be so sure. Ohio State, which improved to 9-1 with a 31-24 win at Minnesota, has an increasingly-compelling case that might just trump the Big 12 argument.
Making their points
The goal for all three teams from here on out is to run it up with their high-powered offenses. Baylor (50.1 points per game) still leads the way in points per game among those three, and TCU (45.9) is second. Ohio State (44.5) isn’t that far behind. Margin of victory will play a role the last three weeks. Who is going to run it up big time?
ADVANTAGE: Baylor
Conference play
Which conference do you think is better? Survey probably says Big 12. Survey is wrong. The Big Ten had twice as many teams ranked in last week’s AP Poll. Even if Nebraska falls out, that leaves Michigan State and Wisconsin to go along with the Buckeyes. TCU averages 46.2 points per game in Big 12 play, and Baylor is at 45.5. The Buckeyes are in between at 45.6. All three are dominating in-conference play, but it’s almost a wash.
ADVANTAGE: TCU
Conference championship
We’ll see how much that matters on Dec. 6, but let’s set the stage for that weekend. TCU hosts Iowa State. Baylor hosts Kansas State. Ohio State will be in Indianapolis for the Big Ten championship game against Wisconsin, and it could be a showdown between potential Heisman finalists J.T. Barrett and Melvin Gordon, who by the way just rushed for a NCAA-record 408 yards against Nebraska. Contrary to the saying, you never get a second chance to make a last impression.
ADVANTAGE: Ohio State
That one loss...
Ohio State’s 35-21 home loss to Virginia Tech on Sept. 6 appears to be the deal-breaker, but is it really? The Hokies are 5-5. That’s not all that different than West Virginia (6-4), which beat Baylor by two TDs. Is it that much worse than blowing a three-touchdown lead, like TCU managed to do against Baylor? Or flirting with disaster at Kansas? The Buckeyes' loss is bad, but considering it was J.T. Barrett’s second start, it's almost forgivable. Almost.
ADVANTAGE: TCU
Body of work
What does body of work really mean? Try this on for a body of work: Ohio State is 33-3 since Urban Meyer took over in 2012, and that includes a 23-0 record in regular-season Big Ten play. No clunkers. Just wins. Baylor (27-8) and TCU (20-15) haven’t enjoyed the same three-year success, and for those married to the term “eyeball test,” the Buckeyes are on the same level as the Horned Frogs and Bears right now.
ADVANTAGE: Ohio State
Endgame
On Dec. 6, there is a very-real scenario that Baylor, TCU and Mississippi State all will finish 11-1. The Buckeyes, however, could be 12-1 with the hottest quarterback in the country at their disposal and the best coach in the country-not named Nick Saban campaigning for a playoff berth against TCU, Baylor or even Mississippi State. You think Meyer will let it go without having his say? Think again.
ADVANTAGE: Ohio State
