Bargain bin of free-agent running backs stuffed with talent

Jason Fitzgerald

Bargain bin of free-agent running backs stuffed with talent image

While the NFL has become a passing league, running backs still play a vital role in the success of most playoff teams.

Teams often focus on drafting running backs, but veterans play a big role — five of the league's 10 leading rushers in 2014 were vets. This year's free-agent class is filled with talent, and many backs will come at a bargain price.

The market

We've looked at salary tiers that exist for given positions, and the structure for running backs is quite different. At most we can produce four salary tiers, and even then the tiers are small. Tier 1 has an average full gurantee of $12.5 million and an average salary of $7.6 million. In Tier 2, that guranteed money drops to $3.8 million, all the way down to $40,000 for Tier 4 running backs.

A legitimate argument will be made by NFL teams: Tier 1 no longer exists in the NFL, and even if it does, it's not applicable to free agency. No player has earned a top tier contract since 2012, and many of those players will be in danger of release either this year or next. Tier 2 has been the focus of free agency and is comprised of former "name" value players and low usage/higher expectation types. Tier 3 consists of specialists, fading veterans and low-upside players.

 

Tier 1 free agents

There's only one true Tier 1 possibility this season: DeMarco Murray of the Cowboys. Murray had an incredible 2014 season, rushing for 1,845 yards while leading Dallas into the playoffs. If he had done that 10 years ago, Murray would have become one of the league's highest paid offensive players.

But his timing is off, and Murray will have several things held against him. For one, he'll turn 27 this year. In a study of running backs over that age, the production decline is steep; the expectation would be no more than two 1,000-yard seasons — certainly nothing close to his 2014 numbers. Murray's high usage (392 carries) also project a quick breakdown.

If Murray is to break into the top tier, he'd likely come in at the bottom and earn something like $6 million per year. And that would only be paid by a team with a flexible salary cap situation, like the Colts or Raiders. Murray could also return to the Cowboys but might have to take less money to do so.

Tier 2 free agents

There's no shortage of intriguing Tier 2 running back talent this year. The top three names should be (in some order) CJ Spiller, Ryan Mathews and Mark Ingram. Each are former first-round draft picks who show glimpses of star power. Spiller is the home-run hitter, Ingram is a big, touchdown player with untapped potential and Mathews is a steady hand. All have an injury history, and only Ingram is young. But those concerns won't be as high in this tier.

I can see all three maxing out the tier at $4 million per year (or just above), but they need to be be realistic. If the three backs slow-play their hand, they could end up missing out. That's what seemed to happen last year to Ben Tate, who projected himself as a top-tier back and landed in Tier 3. I would expect Ingram to be the most pursued of the three players this year.

Veteran Frank Gore is expected to break down but continues to excel, and the 31-year-old ran for another 1,100 yards in 2014. Age will be a detriment to Gore, but his landing in this group is reasonable with players like Fred Jackson earning $2.6 million per year. Teams like the Colts, Cardinals and Bills should kick their tiers on him near $4 million on a two-year deal.

Two names that could sneak into the back of this tier are Roy Helu and Stevan Ridley. Helu is a good receiver who's been used sparingly as a runner, but he's been effective when used. Ridley was injured in 2014 but has produced two great seasons in New England, including a 1,200-yard year in 2012. Both compare favorably to last season's talent that received contracts in the $3-$3.5 million range. 

Best of the rest 

Shane Vereen should be a solid Tier 3 back. The young back has little wear-and-tear on his body, but he has problems with ball security and always seemed to take a back seat to another player in New England. Vereen might be a nice value player if he signs for under $3 million.

Justin Forsett came out of nowhere to rush for over 1,200 yards last season, but most will view that as an outlier since he had never shown such productivity in six years. Still he should earn a hefty raise from his minimum salary. He should push for a similar deal as the $2.5 million per year contract Rashad Jennings signed with the Giants.

Other players who will likely fall into the final two tiers are Chris Johnson, Bilal Powell, Darren McFadden and Daniel Thomas.

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Jason Fitzgerald

Jason Fitzgerald is an NFL salary expert and contributor for Sporting News. Read more of his writing at OverTheCap.com and follow him on Twitter: @Jason_OTC.