It’s Christmas for fans of the NFL and the NFL Draft, but it’s a dense fog of smoke for those trying to project what may happen during draft weekend.
Dissecting what is “possible” from what will happen is the hardest part of the projection of a first round, because NFL decision makers are generally far from set in stone on any of their ideas until their team is on the clock.
MORE: Latest mock draft | Draft central | Over/unders for first round
Will San Francisco trade into the top-five picks? Is Marcus Mariota going to be a Titan? Will Shane Ray, Randy Gregory, or La’El Collins go in the first round? Who’s generating the most buzz going into draft weekend? Those questions, trade possibilities, player-team fits, and player news and notes and more in our final rumors post for the 2015 NFL Draft.
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Trade Possibilities
- I’ll lead with the last report I received late last night: there’s belief that the Raiders and 49ers have a deal in place if the 49ers “player” is available at fourth overall. There’s some uncertainty, because there’s a chance Raiders GM Reggie McKenzie hasn’t guaranteed it yet, but it’s a strong possibility. I feel confident enough that I projected it in my final mock draft. The interesting dynamic is that it’s not completely clear who the 49ers “player” is. Leonard Williams makes the most sense, but I was told not to rule out Todd Gurley, Amari Cooper or DeVante Parker .
- The Titans seem likely to draft Marcus Mariota , but they do so for one last leverage play. The Titans are looking for three first-rounders from Cleveland, and there’s reason to believe the Browns may cave. The Jets have interest, but are not willing to give up a 2016 first-rounder to get there. The Eagles will be fascinating to watch, especially after Chip Kelly has give Sam Bradford numerous votes of confidence. Trade theory (speculating) that may work for everyone? Eagles trade Bradford and 3rd rounder to Browns for No. 12 overall, then trade No. 12, No. 20 and 2016 1st for Mariota?
- The Jaguars are considering a trade down, and the most likely suitor is the Falcons . If the Falcons don’t acquire Bruce Irvin , Dante Fowler may be the apple of their eye. The Jaguars would trade down from No. 3 to No. 8, and could consider Vic Beasley, Alvin Dupree or Todd Gurley.
- The Redskins and Jets would really like to trade down, but unless there’s a substantial market for Amari Cooper (Vikings or Saints?), I think they’ll be stuck at 5. The Jets are in the same boat. I think Cooper or Vic Beasley fits for Washington, while Cooper and Alvin Dupree fit for the Jets.
- The Chargers covet Todd Gurley , and they’ll need to move up a few slots to get him. The Dolphins may have interest, but not sure it’s as substantial as I’ve been led to believe in the past. The Chargers would need to get above the Dolphins, the 49ers (if they’re here) and the Texans to secure him. Dolphins want to get a third-round pick back in this draft. The Dolphins can trade back and get either Trae Waynes or Kevin Johnson , whichever is their top cornerback.
- The Panthers dying to get a left tackle prospect, and the Texans have expressed interest in trading down throughout the process. If Andrus Peat is available at No. 16, I think the Panthers would love to move up. If Peat’s not there, DJ Humphries may have the same effect for Carolina. Houston can trade back and still get their receiver target: either Nelson Agholor of USC or Phillip Dorsett of Miami.
- The Packers and the Patriots are the two most likely teams to trade out of the first. Teams I think could trade up are the Vikings, Bucs, and Bears, in that order.
Player-Team Fits
- The Giants taking Brandon Scherff doesn’t make a ton of sense to me, other than drawing comparison to a player they had ranked highly in 2014: Zach Martin.
- The Rams taking Ereck Flowers also doesn’t seem like a worthwhile value, but the fact he can play left tackle to keep Greg Robinson inside at guard, or right tackle opposite Robinson, or guard (which is a need) is why he’s valuable for the Rams.
- I’d be surprised, barring a Mariota trade, if the Browns didn’t draft either Danny Shelton or Malcom Brown in the first round. Their other first-round pick will be tough to figure out. Right tackle is possible. I still believe receiver is more likely than running back at No. 19, but the team does have some fears about Terrence West.
- The Chiefs may be locking in on Cameron Erving to replace Rodney Hudson or Kevin Johnson at No. 18, but I’ve heard plenty of other players/positions for them as well. I’ll guess they play it safe at 18.
- Eric Rowe to the Eagles , Jake Fisher to the Bengals , Kevin Johnson to the Steelers (if he’s there), Malcom Brown to the Lions (if he’s there) are all picks I have some confidence in based on what I’ve been told late in the process, but certainly could be affected by any top players, like Arik Armstead or Andrus Peat, falling.
- The Texans are firmly disappointed with Louis Nix, and with Vince Wilfork only having a year or two left, look for Houston to draft a nose tackle when the value fits. Jordan Phillips of Oklahoma in the second, Joey Mbu of Houston in the third, or Xavier Williams of Northern Iowa in the fourth all may fit.
Player Notes
- La’el Collins of LSU shouldn’t expect his name called on Thursday, and there’s legitimate feelings that he might have to wait a while on Friday. I don’t think teams are assuming he’s guilty of the murder of his ex-girlfriend, but that this may drag on for a while. I would have had him pegged to either 13th overall to the Saints or 17th overall to the Chargers.
- Randy Gregory has been the topic of much discussion this draft season. Even with his character red flags, he’s a top-20 player on our board, and the draft’s top pass-rusher on film. But his character issues (marijuana use, failed Combine drug test for potentially more than just marijuana, now in the NFL’s drug testing system, attitude questions, and effort concerns) check nearly every box, and not in a good way. Still, the sense is that he’ll go in round one, and won’t get past Dallas at 27.
- Shane Ray ’s foot injury, his citation for marijuana possession, the fact that he’s now in the NFL’s drug testing program, and less-than-ideal NFL Combine testing numbers all have me feeling he’ll slip out of the first. The two teams to watch for him: Dallas at 27, New Orleans at 31, and Bears trading up from the second round.
- Breshad Perriman of UCF has seen his value skyrocket. While some teams haven’t exactly bought in to the top-20 hype, others have. He could go as high as No. 13 overall to the Saints (especially if Vic Beasley, Ereck Flowers and Brandon Scherff are off the board), and the Chiefs at No. 18, Browns at No. 19 and Ravens at No. 26 all have interest.
- Byron Jones of UConn also, like Perriman, saw his stock tremendously rise after a jaw-dropping NFL Combine performance. But, again, not every team feels he’s a top-20 pick, and more than few feel he’d be better at safety (which I agree with). If Kevin Johnson isn’t there, the Steelers likely have interest. The Cardinals, Colts and Packers all still may take him, but it wouldn’t totally shock me if he fell out of the first-round. The Vikings could be a suitor to trade back into the first-round, something GM Rick Speilman is never afraid to do.
- Marcus Peters of Washington has some teams that covet him, and others that he’s off their board. The 49ers and Ravens are the two most likely destinations, but talent-wise, he’s arguably the top cornerback in this class.
- Dorial Green-Beckham in the first-round would still shock me. It’s gotten some buzz at times throughout the process, but from all I’ve heard, there were three teams that seemed like reasonable options, and they’re all out on him in round one: 49ers, Ravens and Seahawks. He’s too much of a gamble in round one, but it’d be naïve to rule him totally out.
- Could Division III star Ali Marpet really go in the second round? As of today, I really think so. For many teams, he’s the third-rated center, after Cameron Erving and AJ Cann. If both go in the top-40, Marpet is the next man up. Add in that teams love his progression this off-season, athletic upside and showing at the Senior Bowl, and he’s firmly in the top-60 mix. Three teams would may consider him in round two: Miami, Cleveland, Green Bay.
- What’s with the Packers being linked to Denzel Perryman ? I’ve heard he’s been “their guy” for round two for some time. There’s a strong possibility that there won’t be a cornerback of value at #30, and inside linebacker is a major need. If they are going with Perryman, it’ll probably be in a trade back.
- Don’t be shocked if Clemson linebacker Stephone Anthony is highly coveted at the end of round one or early round two. If the Packers don’t have substantial interest (fits their defense/need), the two teams that hold Anthony in very high regard: New England Patriots and Minnesota Vikings. Both are fits, and both are very bullish on him.
- Top players out of my final first-round mock draft include DE Shane Ray (foot, marijuana), CB Jalen Collins (marijuana),OT/OG La’el Collins (investigation), and SAF Landon Collins (Alabama DB history, versatility questions). Offensive linemen Cedric Ogbuehi and Donovan Smith have first-round interest, but I just couldn’t find a home for them. Finally, we grade Jaelen Strong of Arizona State and Jordan Phillips of Oklahoma as top talents in this draft, and their value dictates a first-round pick. I’m just unsure of which team in the late first round agrees with me.
Eric Galko is the owner and director of scouting at Optimum Scouting and OptimumScouting.com, as well as a Sporting News contributor. Follow him on Twitter: @OptimumScouting.