Going strictly by the numbers, there’s at least a 60 percent chance that Kentucky or one of the other No. 1 seeds – Villanova, Duke and Wisconsin – will be crowned 2015 NCAA Tournament champions.
Since the Tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, 18 of the 30 national champions were No. 1 seeds.
Of course, that didn’t happen last year. Connecticut, a No. 7 seed, became just the third team in the last 30 years seeded lower than No. 4 to win the Big Dance. Kansas (No. 6, 1988) and Villanova (No. 8, 1985) were the others.
Chalk, however, remains the dominant theme. Learn to play the percentages before building your Tournament bracket.
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Here’s a look at the champions, championship game participants and Final Four teams by seed since 1985.
WINNING THE CHAMPIONSHIP
No. 1: 60.0 percent
No. 2: 13.3
No. 3: 13.3
No. 4: 3.4
No. 6: 3.4
No. 7: 3.4
No. 8: 3.4
Analysis: Of the last 30 champions, a total of 22 were seeded No. 1 or No. 2. Six of the last eight NCAA champions were No. 1 seeds.
MAKING THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
No. 1: 46.7 percent
No. 2: 18.3
No. 3: 15.0
No. 4: 5.0
No. 5: 5.0
No. 6: 3.3
No. 7: 1.7
No. 8: 5.0
Analysis: In addition to UConn as a No. 7, Kentucky made the championship game as a No. 8 seed last season, and Michigan made the championship game as a No. 4 seed in 2014. That’s still nowhere near the norm. Since 1985, 80 percent of the championship game participants were a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seed. Counting Kentucky and UConn last season, only six championship participants were seeded lower than No. 4. Butler did it twice as a No. 8 seed, in 2011 and 2012. Florida (No. 5, 2000) and Indiana (No. 5, 2002) made similar runs.
MAKING THE FINAL FOUR
No. 1: 40.0 percent
No. 2: 20.8
No. 3: 12.5
No. 4: 10.8
No. 5: 5.0
No. 6: 2.5
No. 7: 0.8
No. 8: 4.2
No. 9: 0.8
No. 11: 2.5
Analysis: Since 1985, 73.3 percent of the Final Four participants have been No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 seeds. Even last year, Florida (No. 1) and Wisconsin (No. 2) made up half of the Final Four.
Four takeaways:
-- It's still best to pick a No. 1 seed to win your bracket, knowing that 40 percent of the Final Four teams are No. 1 seeds and 60 percent of national champions come from the top line.
-- Kentucky will likely be picked as the champion in most brackets. Don’t get too cute. Take the Wildcats to get the Final Four, at least. It’s not going to hurt you. Even if it does, it’s going to hurt most of your competitors, too.
-- Concentrate on the teams seeded Nos. 1-4 in each region. At least three of your Final Four teams should be a No. 1, No. 2 or No. 3 in their bracket.
-- Connecticut busted everybody’s bracket last year, and there’s a chance that could happen again with a mid-range seed this year. But it’s certainly the exception, and picking who that dark horse will be is another matter entirely.
This is the first of four NCAA Tournament bracket analysis articles by Bill Bender.
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