Keep jumping on that high-seed, mid-major bandwagon. You’ll fall off almost every time.
Which leads us to Gonzaga, the No. 2 seed in the West Region of the NCAA Tournament. The Bulldogs are no stranger to a high seed, but how far should you take them in your bracket? And what about other note-worthy mid-majors such as Wichita State and Northern Iowa.
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Here are three things to remember when dealing with mid-majors in the Tournament:
High-seed lows: In the last five tournaments, 11 schools from mid-major conferences have held a seed of No. 4 or higher. None of those schools have advanced past the Sweet 16.
It’s been worse the last two years. Five mid-major teams – Gonzaga, San Diego State Wichita State, St. Louis and New Mexico – were seeded No. 4 or higher, and only the Aztecs made the Sweet 16.
Back to Gonzaga. The Bulldogs have earned a seed of No. 4 or higher five times under Mark Few. Gonzaga exited in the second round in 2004 (No. 2 seed), 2005 (No. 3) and 2013 (No. 1). They made the Sweet 16 in 2006 (No. 3) and 2009 (No. 4). Taking the Bulldogs past the Sweet 16 this year requires a leap of faith that this team is different.
Low-seed highs: Wichita State (2014), Butler (2010, 2011), VCU (2011) and George Mason (2006) also made the Final Four in recent seasons, but none were seeded No. 4 or higher. The Shockers were a No. 9. The Bulldogs were No. 5 and No. 8, respectively. The Rams and Patriots were both No. 11 seeds.
That bodes well this year for Northern Iowa (No. 5) and Wichita State (No. 7) out of the Missouri Valley Conference. Neither team has the pressure of playing with a high seed. That makes them more dangerous in the Tournament.
Final Four hopes: Of the 19 schools from mid-major conferences that have been seeded No. 4 or higher in the NCAA Tournament since 2005, only two reached the Final Four. Both were Conference-USA teams. That happened to be Rick Pitino-coached Louisville in 2005 and John Calipari-coached Memphis in 2008. Louisville is in the ACC now.
| Year | Seed | Team | Conference | How far they got |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | Wichita State | MVC | Second Round |
| 2014 | 4 | San Diego State | MWC | Sweet 16 |
| 2013 | 4 | St. Louis | A-10 | Second Round |
| 2013 | 3 | New Mexico | MWC | First Round |
| 2013 | 1 | Gonzaga | WCC | Second Round |
| 2011 | 2 | San Diego State | MWC | Sweet 16 |
| 2011 | 3 | BYU | MWC | Sweet 16 |
| 2010 | 3 | New Mexico | MWC | Second Round |
| 2009 | 2 | Memphis | C-USA | Sweet 16 |
| 2009 | 4 | Gonzaga | WCC | Sweet 16 |
| 2009 | 4 | Xavier | A-10 | Sweet 16 |
| 2008 | 1 | Memphis | C-USA | Lost title game |
| 2008 | 3 | Xavier | A-10 | Elite Eight |
| 2007 | 4 | Southern Illinois | MVC | Sweet 16 |
| 2007 | 1 | Memphis | C-USA | Elite Eight |
| 2006 | 3 | Gonzaga | WCC | Sweet 16 |
| 2006 | 1 | Memphis | C-USA | Elite Eight |
| 2005 | 3 | Gonzaga | WCC | Second Round |
| 2005 | 4 | Louisville | C-USA | Final Four |
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