NCAA Tournament bracket analysis – Look beyond Duke for early-exit candidates

Bill Bender

NCAA Tournament bracket analysis – Look beyond Duke for early-exit candidates image

Enough with the Lehigh and Mercer jokes.

When Duke enters the NCAA Tournament as a No. 1 seed, the Blue Devils are anything but candidates for an early exit.

This is the 13th time Duke earned a No. 1 seed under coach Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils are 24-0 in the first weekend as a top seed in those previous 12 appearances. So you can pencil them in to at least the Sweet 16.

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Here’s what else we know about Duke as a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament:

FIRST ROUND: Duke has been favored by 24 points or more in its last 10 first-round games as a No. 1 seed. The Blue Devils are 6-4 ATS in those games, and they nearly covered an impossible 47-point spread in a 99-58 win against Florida A&M in 1999 -- which is, as far as we can tell, the biggest spread in Tournament history. The Blue Devils are going to win big on Friday; they’ve won those 10 games by an average of 32.5 points. .

SECOND ROUND: Watch the spread on Sunday. Duke is 4-6 ATS in its last 10 second-round games as a No. 1, but that ATS record drops to 2-5 when the spread is 10 points or more.

CHARLOTTE BONUS: Duke hasn’t lost an NCAA Tournament game in Charlotte since the 1993-94 national championship against Arkansas. The Blue Devils' last eight games in the city have come in the first weekend, and they are 8-0 straight up in them. That includes six games as a No. 1 seed (1999, 2005, 2011), where Duke is 2-4 ATS.

SWEET 16 AND BEYOND: How far should you take Duke in your bracket? Consider Duke has reached the Final Four six times and won three national championships in 12 tries as a No. 1 seed under Coach K, but the Blue Devils bowed out in the Sweet 16 in three of those last four appearances. So, Duke is all but a lock to get out of the first weekend of the tournament, but it becomes a 50-50 proposition at the Sweet 16 or beyond.

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NCAA Tournament: Bracket Game | Printable bracket

Bill Bender

Bill Bender Photo

Bill Bender graduated from Ohio University in 2002 and started at The Sporting News as a fantasy football writer in 2007. He has covered the College Football Playoff, NBA Finals and World Series for SN. Bender enjoys story-telling, awesomely-bad 80s movies and coaching youth sports.