Using the Four Factors of Basketball Success to pick a winning NCAA Tournament bracket

If you're looking for a unique way to pick your NCAA Tournament bracket, here's one.

A common thought process in basketball analytics identifies four key elements which correlate most closely with winning games. Former Sacramento Kings and ESPN Director of Analytics Dean Oliver coined these the Four Factors of Basketball Success — shooting, turnovers, rebounding and free throw proficiency.

Each of these factors hold varying weights, and we can apply them to determine a team’s likelihood of success, in this case within the NCAA Tournament. Using a model that measures these factors — eight total stats when accounting for both a team’s offense and defense — we’ve unofficially created a "Four Factors Score" and an adjusted ranking for each team in the Field of 68 to help pick the bracket. You can scroll down to key takeaways for some bracket tips and the full rankings, or continue reading for an explanation of how this system works.

NCAA SCORES: Live updates, highlights

Here are the stats at play:

Offensive and Defensive Effective Field Goal Percentage (weighted 40 percent) — a shooting percentage which adjusts for a 3-pointer being worth more than a 2-pointer.

Offensive and Defensive Turnover Percentage (weighted 25 percent) — an estimate of turnovers per 100 possessions.

Offensive and Defensive Rebound Percentage (weighted 20 percent) — an estimate of the percentage of available rebounds a team grabs.

Offensive and Defensive Free Throws Made per Field Goal Attempt (weighted 15 percent) — how often a team gets to the free throw line and how often they convert.

Taking each school's national ranking out of 351 in each category and reversing it (top team gets 351 points), then applying the weighted rate, gives you what we’ll conveniently call the Four Factors Score, or 4FS.

When looking at each team’s national ranking in 4FS, it stacks up relatively well with other commonly used ranking systems. Here, 45 of the top 68 teams (66 percent) in Four Factor Score are in the tournament. That’s compared to 79 percent of the top 68 in RPI, 76 percent of KenPom and 75 percent of ESPN’s Basketball Power Index. Gonzaga, Villanova, North Carolina, Kentucky, Arizona and Oregon are all within the top 12 of 4FS. Louisiana Tech (16th) is the only team within the top 27 that did not make the field.

Before utilizing this to pick the bracket, we need to install some basic logic. To counterbalance differing levels of conference competition and lend some credence to the committee’s evaluation of each team and their resume, we’ll adjust the 4FS ranking a bit based on tournament seeding. Each team gets docked eight 4FS points per their number seed. This still allows for a fair share of upsets but maintains some level of sanity in the earlier rounds, and prevents situations like Vermont reaching the Elite 8 (the later rounds are where these variances will be less of a factor, the teams will be more evenly matched, and this system should pay off nicely). 

A simple example of how that 8-point adjustment plays out (WARNING: math ahead): despite No. 14 New Mexico State’s 60-point margin over No. 3 Baylor in 4FS score, this model has Baylor advancing, thanks to an 11-seed difference (11 times 8 equals an 88-point boost for Baylor, giving them the 28-point edge). However, the adjustment is not enough to counteract No. 12 Princeton’s 62-point 4FS margin over No. 5 Notre Dame (7 times 8 equals 56, which falls just short of 62). Princeton advances.

MORE: Smart stats to break down the East Region

Now we re-rank the field with the adjusted 4FS and advance teams based on who has the higher score (or higher adjusted ranking) within their matchup. First read the most relevant takeaways, then see how the list shakes out with each team’s national Four Factors Score ranking next to their adjusted ranking (or new seed) within the Field of 68.

Key bracket takeaways

— The system confirms how incredibly good Wichita State has been, how incredibly under-seeded they are, but how incredibly screwed they get once again by a possible matchup with John Calipari's crew in the Round of 32. The Shockers blow away the field with a whopping Four Factors Score of 621 — over 35 points higher than any team in the country – thanks to a top 40 national ranking in six of the eight categories (top 10 in D-eFG% and DREB%). Only three teams in the field would have knocked them off using this model, and sure enough one of them is their potential second-round opponent, by a nose.

— The formula here unfortunately can't account for Oregon's massive loss of Chris Boucher in the Pac-12 Tournament, so their sixth-ranked 4FS gets them to the Final Four. Gonzaga (second in 4FS) and Villanova (fifth), two extremely well-rounded teams, join the Ducks and Kentucky in that quartet. 

— This model does not like Kansas or UCLA very much. Kansas (29th in 4FS) gets dinged by sub-par defense across the board and too many turnovers. UCLA (41st) takes a major hit thanks to poor rebounding, an inability to force turnovers and not being able to get to the free throw line at all.  

— As suspected, the Midwest Region shows up extremely soft here. Only two Midwest teams showcase a top 15 Four Factors Score, one of them being those short-handed Ducks. The other? Yes, the aforementioned Vermont Catamounts. With the No. 17 4FS, Purdue could be the team to emerge here if Oregon can't overcome Boucher's loss. 

MORE: Numbers to know for the Midwest Region

— A major sleeper is SMU, a team on a 16-game win streak thanks to stingy defense, elite offensive rebounding and strong shooting. The Mustangs fall in at third overall in 4FS and the adjusted model has them overcoming a No. 6 seed to reach the Elite 8.

— Other strong teams that get a notable boost here are Cincinnati, Saint Mary’s, Wisconsin, Vermont, Middle Tennessee, Princeton, Nevada, New Mexico State and East Tennessee State. Several of them run into other strong 4FS teams early on, however, to limit the damage in our bracket, but you’re on the right track picking any of them to make noise.

— Other teams that appear to be overseeded? See Louisville, Baylor, Notre Dame, Butler, West Virginia, Iowa State, Minnesota, Maryland and Creighton for an upset alert.

— This exercise was generally a bad look for bubble teams, such as Vanderbilt, Virginia Tech, Seton Hall and Wake Forest, with Marquette being the lowest-ranked of the at-large bunch. For what would be the second year in a row, Michigan State (140th in 4FS) doesn't appear to have a long run in store, but it's tough to count out Tom Izzo.

Here's the full list, followed by a completed bracket using our new method. 

MORE: Breaking down Wichita State's loaded region

Finally, here's how all this applies to an actual bracket. It comes up a little chalky for the first couple rounds outside of three No. 12 seeds advancing. In the end you get two No. 1s, a No. 2 and a No. 3 in the Final Four, with Gonzaga ultimately taking down Kentucky for the title. 

But if you want to get wild and throw Wichita State in the final, you have our support. 

THE "FOUR FACTORS SCORE" BRACKET: