The Indians have had back-to-back winning seasons for the first time since their run of excellence from 1994-2001, but remain a mystery to many casual fans. Even Corey Kluber, the 2014 American League Cy Young winner, is hardly a household name. This is not horribly unreasonable, as the 28-year-old right-hander has made only 70 starts in his major league career, and 34 of those were last year.
So, what can be expected from the Indians in 2015? Here are five bold predictions:
1. Sorry, Corey
Kluber’s 2014 season was incredible, as his 269 strikeouts were the most by a Cleveland pitcher since Sam McDowell fanned 304 batters in 1970, and he joined McDowell and Bartolo Colon as the only Indians starters with a double-digit rate of strikeouts per nine innings. This is not to say that Kluber is a fluke, but he threw 235.2 innings in 2014, an increase of 76 over his combined total between the majors and Triple-A from the previous year. That is a massive one-year increase, and even though Kluber has a mature arm at age 28 (he turns 29 in April), it’s enough to believe that a step back is in order. Kluber still will be the Indians’ best starter, but the margin will be less than one win above replacement over Trevor Bauer.
2. Welcome Gomes
In the last five seasons, the Indians have had five different WAR leaders, by the Baseball-Reference formula for the statistic: Shin-Soo Choo, Asdrubal Cabrera, Carlos Santana, Jason Kipnis and Kluber. This year, there will be still another, and it will be catcher Yan Gomes. Already the majors’ all-time leader in every hitting category among players born in Brazil (OK, the only other player born in Brazil is Marlins reliever Andre Rienzo, who has never had an at-bat), Gomes hit .278/.313/.472 last year with 21 homers. The son-in-law of former major leaguer Atlee Hammaker can get even better with increased plate discipline, which is not unreasonable to expect in Gomes’ second full season as a starter. His defense already is top notch.
3. The Bourn Ultimatum
Michael Bourn is earning $13.5 million this year, the second-highest salary on the books for Cleveland. The good news for him is that the highest-paid player on the Indians, Nick Swisher, has had even greater struggles than Bourn, who hit .257/.314/.360 last year and was a gruesome 10-for-16 on stolen bases while playing center field to the satisfaction of no metrics. The Indians have two center field prospects, both first-round picks from the 2012 draft, in Tyler Naquin (.313/.371/.424 in Double-A in 2014) and James Ramsey (.295/.382/.509 between Double-A with the Cardinals and Triple-A after Cleveland acquired him in the Justin Masterson trade). A new face will join Michael Brantley (who could himself move to center field) and Brandon Moss in the outfield in Cleveland by midsummer, with Bourn relegated either to bench duty or involved in a trade for someone else’s regrettable contract, perhaps a pitcher who could provide more depth.
4. Don’t Call Me Cody
Having taken over the closer’s job last season with 24 saves and 91 strikeouts in 69.2 innings, a year after finishing sixth in the Rookie of the Year vote, this will be the year that Cody Allen gets a preposterous nickname. Look for it to happen when Allen is one of the players who is part of the vote for the All-Star Game’s final spot. There will be a hashtag. It will be insufferable during the Final Vote, then it will be hilarious because of its silliness, then it will be hilariously insufferable when the local popularity of Moonraker Allen inspires all of the Indians to rename themselves after Bond movies (except Brantley, because Dr. Smooth should be a Bond movie already), and there is no talking Octopussy Swisher out of his new appelation.
5. Don’t Believe-land
This will not be the year that the Indians bring home their first world championship since 1948. Performance relative to Pythagorean year-to-year is like a roulette wheel, so Cleveland’s streak of four straight years overachieving relative to runs scored and allowed does not have to come to an end, but you do figure that a kind of meh year is in there somewhere. The Indians will be in the mix in the Central most of the year, but pitching depth issues will sink their hopes of winning a first division title since 2007. The final record will be somewhere between 78 and 84 wins. Basically, it’s a .500 team.