College football Week 3 primer: Heisman watch, upset picks, predictions and more

The college football season barrels into Week 3, and Sporting News is ready for the action.

The Week 3 college football schedule features a huge ACC matchup between No. 3 Clemson and No. 14 Louisville; an SEC East showdown between No. 23 Tennessee and No. 24 Florida; and a blue-blood battle between No. 4 USC and Texas.

MORE: Week 3 college football picks

We'll get you ready for Week 3 with five things to watch, including Lamar Jackson's Heisman statement against the reigning national champs; Florida coach Jim McElwain being on the hot seat; the week's biggest upset possibilities; and a deep dive into Academy football against the top 10.

College football: Week 3 primer

Heisman Watch

It's unfair to put defending Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson in an "or-else game" when No. 14 Louisville hosts No. 3 Clemson at Papa John's Stadium on Saturday, but here's how some voters will treat this game: "Jackson has to win this game or he can't win the Heisman."

Jackson leads the nation with 1,010 total yards of offense, and he has been every bit as explosive as last season. He's still the same quarterback who took Clemson to the wire in Death Valley in a 42-36 last year. But Jackson, in a sit-down interview with SN over the summer, refused to play the "what-if" game about that close finish.

"We had a lot of moments where we could have won that game," Jackson told SN. "A lot of key moments, but we know we've got to deal with it. It's over." 

Now, it's back. Jackson gets another chance. A victory here, and Louisville is the team to beat in the ACC and Jackson is right there with Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and USC's Sam Darnold, who scored early-season signature victories in Week 2. 

MORE: Louisville vs. Clemson matchup

Coach on the spot 

Coach Jim McElwain and Florida had two weeks — two whole weeks — to hear about their 33-17 loss to Michigan in the season opener. The Gators' second game against Northern Colorado was canceled because of Hurricane Irma, and now they are tasked with showing a better product at home against rival Tennessee.

The Vols broke an 11-game losing streak to the Gators in 2016. Tennessee hasn't won back-to-back games against Florida since 2003-04, when Ron Zook was coach. Consequently, that '04 season was Zook's last in The Swamp. McElwain's job isn't in danger by any means, given his team's SEC East championships the last two seasons.

But the combination of suspensions, poor offensive play and another loss to their Big Orange rivals would put a much different spin on the Gators' compass. Remember, McElwain's predecessor Will Muschamp was let go after four seasons and currently has South Carolina on the cusp of an AP Top 25 ranking.

Upset alert

The Group of 5 and FCS remained winless against top-25 teams through Week 2, and perennial G5 buster Boise State missed an opportunity in a 47-44 triple-overtime loss to Washington State.

The combined score in those games was 920-234, an average score of 46-12. That's unreal.

Is there anybody from the Group of 5 who can step up and beat a top-25 team? No. 7 Michigan and No. 8 Ohio State could get tested by Air Force and Army, respectively, at least for a half.

But the game to watch is No. 25 UCLA at Memphis. Josh Rosen is tied for the FBS lead with nine touchdown passes, but he'll be on the road for an early kickoff against a Tigers team that had an extra week to prepare. NFL scouts won't only be watching Rosen; they'll be watching Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson, too. This is his time to shine.

MORE: Week 3 bowl projections

Over/under 

Vanderbilt last went 3-0 in 2011 under first-year coach James Franklin before going on to consecutive 9-4 seasons. Now, the Commodores have a chance to get back on that level under coach Derek Mason.

Vanderbilt hosts No. 18 Kansas State on Saturday with a chance to score that big nonconference victory. The Commodores should like their chances, too. The rush defense is solid at ninth in the FBS (54.0 yards per game).

Vandy quarterback Kyle Shurmur has been flawless with 498 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions through two games. Shurmur is one of five quarterbacks in the FBS with at least six touchdown passes who is averaging more than 10 yards per passing attempt. Ole Miss' Shea Patterson, Missouri's Drew Lock, Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph are the others. 

Kansas State quarterback Jesse Ertz (511 yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions) takes care of the ball, too. This will be a fun, defensive, low-scoring game. That's why the over/under is at 48.5. Take the under.

Think about it …

Ohio State and Michigan are top-10 teams dealing with issues with quarterbacks J.T. Barrett and Wilton Speight, respectively, but both team face the challenge of defending Academy football this weekend against Army and Air Force.

Those option offenses can make for some tense times, even for the best teams in the country.

Navy upset No. 6 Houston 46-40 last season, marking the first time an Academy school knocked off a top-10 team since the Midshipmen beat No. 2 South Carolina 38-21 in 1984. Army, Navy and Air Force are a combined 2-36 against top 10 teams since, including an 0-20 record against Notre Dame. The Falcons also climbed to No. 5 in the polls in 1985 and beat Army 45-7, a game that we didn't count against that record.

MORE: Barrett, Speight won't get benched

Of the 18 games against top 10-teams not including Notre Dame, here are the games decided by 14 points or fewer:

Ohio State and Michigan should be fine, but they've been down this road before. That 2009 showdown with Navy came down to the wire for the Buckeyes, and No. 19 Michigan held off Air Force 31-25 on Sept. 22, 2012.