Which schools are you picking to make the College Football Playoff in 2017?
Alabama? Ohio State? Maybe even defending national champion Clemson? Sporting News' picks for the four-team playoff are admittedly chalky, too. We have Alabama and Ohio State — default picks because of their talent accumulation — along with Florida State and USC.
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Let's say the chalk holds. Alabama and Ohio State return to the playoff — again. That would mark the Crimson Tide's fourth appearance in as many years, and the Buckeyes' third. If Clemson wins the ACC again and returns for a third straight year, all those schools would have at least three playoff appearances in four years.
Would that kind of monopoly be a bad thing for the playoff's future?
"I don't think it's bad because if everybody aspires to stop that they improve their own program," Big Ten Network analyst Gerry DiNardo told SN. "Maybe the athletic director says to the coaches trying to chase them, 'What do you need?'"
As of now, less than a handful of schools are way out in front. We put out the "Would you take Alabama/Ohio State vs. the field?" prop before last season, and that wager still stands in 2017. You could add either Florida State or Clemson as a third wheel, given those two schools have combined for the last six ACC championships.
A Sugar Bowl rematch between Ohio State and Alabama might be fun, or even a rubber match between the Tide and Tigers in the College Football Playoff championship game. But a rematch of the rematch of the rematch is where we could start running into problems. Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Swinney and Jimbo Fisher are the only FBS coaches with national championships in all of college football.
It's the most exclusive coaching fraternity among the major sports right now.
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It's early to panic — after all, it's only Year 4 of the CFP era — but it's a trend worth watching. Part of the allure of the four-team playoff is that it feels like the NCAA men's basketball Final Four, with the exception that the regular season serves as the 64-team tournament and the No. 1 seeds, the heavyweights, are guaranteed to make the season's penultimate game.
"The difference is in basketball the best team has a much smaller chance of winning the championship," DiNardo said. "Fewer people involved, the better chance the best teams have."
Ten different active college basketball coaches have won a national championship. Having multiple teams reach the Final Four three times in four years at the same time rarely happens — just three times, in fact. North Carolina and Kentucky each reached three Final Fours from 1995-98. UCLA and North Carolina both made the Final Four three straight years from 1967-69, and Cincinnati and Ohio State pulled off the same feat from 1960-62.
Schools make multiple Final Four appearances in a four-year stretch all the time. Kentucky, North Carolina and Wisconsin have each been to the Final Four twice in the last four seasons. There also was a stretch from 1990-93 where five different schools (Duke, UNLV, North Carolina, Michigan and Kansas) had multiple Final Four appearances. That was one of the most enjoyable stretches possible.
It's a different game now, however. One strong freshman class can flip the field.
Football, meanwhile, continues to see a gap grow not just between the Power 5 and Group of 5, but within the Power 5 itself. Ohio State (19), Alabama (17) and Clemson (15) have combined to have 51 players drafted the last two seasons, and have shown no signs of slowing down on the recruiting trail. The SEC, Big Ten and ACC have had a playoff team each of the last three years. The Pac-12 and Big 12 are the ones rotating the fourth seat.
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There's no reason to take anyone but chalk at this point. Who else are you picking in the SEC? Anybody other than Alabama? What about the ACC? Anybody other than Clemson or Florida State? Ohio State made the playoff over Big Ten champion Penn State last season, and the Buckeyes have the most talent in the conference again.
Which schools could break that up? Oklahoma, Michigan State, Oregon and Washington have each made the College Football Playoff once, but those schools combined for a 1-4 record and the losses were by an average of 24.3 points per game. USC, Penn State, Michigan and Georgia are all ranked in the top 10 of Sporting News' Preseason Top 25 Poll and are candidates to make a first-time appearance. But that requires knocking off the incumbents first.
What about the others? Can Oklahoma State really beat Oklahoma? Can Auburn really beat Alabama? It's one of those instances where the offseason talk is fun, but the regular-season result seems almost predetermined.
Imagining a rebooted playoff of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Washington — also all top 10 teams — isn't out of the question. The Tide, Tigers and Buckeyes would have 10 of 16 total playoff appearances if that happens. The allure of having the No. 1 seeds is still there, but a little variation never hurts. It's not a bad thing yet.
"I don't think there's anything bad about a separation because everybody knows who they are chasing," DiNardo said.
That much is true. Everyone is chasing the chalk right now. If someone doesn't break that monopoly over the next few years, however, then it will be a much different conversation.
And at that point, it might not be a good thing anymore.
