It doesn’t happen often that the No. 1 team in the country goes into a road game as an 8.5-point underdog.
But that’s what happens when you face a team that has won three of the last five national championships.
No. 1 Mississippi State (9-0) travels to No. 4 Alabama (8-1) in a game that will shape both the SEC West and College Football Playoff picture.
Do the Bulldogs — the underdogs — have what it takes to take out the Tide?
Here’s a closer look at the Numbers that Matter:
Series
Alabama owns a 77-17-3 advantage in this series, which began in 1896. The Crimson Tide won the last six meetings.
Marquee matchups
This marks the 11th time both teams come into the matchup ranked in the Top 25 of the AP Poll. Alabama is 9-1 in those matchups, the only loss coming in 1940.
Coaching matchup
Nick Saban is 5-0 in head-to-head meetings against Dan Mullen, and the Bulldogs haven’s scored more than 10 points in any of those games. The average margin of victory is 21.8 points.
Heisman hopeful
Simply put, this is Mississippi State's Dak Prescott’s chance for a Heisman moment. Prescott is tied for fourth in the country with 180 points responsible for with 12 rushing TDs and 18 passing touchdowns. The Crimson Tide’s last loss in Tuscaloosa came in 2012 against Texas A&M and quarterback Johnny Manziel. He finished 24-of-31 for 253 yards and two TDs along with 18 carries for 92 yards. Prescott will have to be that good, or maybe better.
On the spot
Alabama quarterback Blake Sims delivered in a comeback win at LSU last week, but that masked a 20-of-45 passing performance. Sims has played better at home, with a 69.2 completion percentage and 11:1 TD:INT ratio. The Bulldogs have 12 interceptions this season. Sims has an excellent chance to play turnover-free ball.
X-factor
T.J. Yeldon (ankle) suffered an ankle injury against LSU last week. Yeldon had 160 rushing yards in a 20-7 win against Mississippi State last season. If he can’t go, Derrick Henry, who averages 4.4 yards per carry in SEC play, could see an increased workload. He has just one game with at least 20 carries this season.
Key matchup
Alabama middle linebacker Reggie Ragland anchors a defense that allows the fifth-fewest yards per carry (2.8). Ragland has 69 tackles and 7.5 tackles for loss. Mississippi State averages 5.6 yards per rushing attempt, and junior running back Josh Robinson leads the way 6.7 yards per carry. Robinson’s averages 7.1 yards per rush with 8 TDs in SEC play. Can the Bulldogs establish the middle of the field?
In-game trend
Mississippi State leads the FBS in red-zone defense (.581). Opposing teams have scored just 10 TDs in 31 red-zone trips this season against the Bulldogs.
Stat that matters
Mississippi State has to establish the run. The Bulldogs averaged just 2.3 yards per carry in the last five losses to Alabama, and that includes 80 rushing attempts for 112 yards in the last three meetings. That’s just 1.4 yards per carry.
Did you know?
Alabama has never lost to Ole Miss and Mississippi State in the same season.
Magic number: 434.9
Mississippi State ranks fifth in the nation in total offense. The Bulldogs average 522.1 total yards per game. The Tide have lost just five games since 2011. Nobody has put up that many yards against Alabama under Nick Saban. The average total yards against the Crimson Tide in losses is 347.6 yards. Split the difference, and you get 434.9 yards. If Mississippi State gets there, then it stays undefeated.
Bottom line
History is on Alabama’s side, but this might just be the best team in Mississippi State history, too. Prescott will keep in interesting, for sure, but the Bulldogs are up against it in Tuscaloosa. The Tide rolls on to a one-score win, and perhaps moves to the top of the College Football Playoff rankings because of it.
