The Big Ten has four legitimate College Football Playoff contenders heading into the 2017 season.
It's the same bunch that reached the New Year's Day Six in 2016. Penn State, the defending conference champion, could take the next step under James Franklin. Urban Meyer and Ohio State will look to reach the College Football Playoff for the third time in four seasons. Michigan lost three games by a combined five points under Jim Harbaugh in 2016, and Wisconsin lost three one-score games against those Big Ten East powerhouses under Paul Chryst.
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That's not to say someone else can't upset the order of those contenders, but most of that playoff discussions begin there.
With that in mind, let's break down the Big Ten with predictions for both divisions, the hype team, sleeper team, X-factor, Heisman hopefuls, hot seat, stat that matters and biggest games that will determine who wins that championship.
Big Ten East predictions
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Michigan State
5. Maryland
6. Indiana
7. Rutgers
Champion: Ohio State
Ohio State feels like an auto-settings pick, but the Buckeyes have the most talent and an experienced winner in quarterback J.T. Barrett. Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson will renovate the offense, especially in the passing attack, and a loaded defensive line led by Tyquan Lewis, Sam Hubbard and Nick Bosa will wreak havoc. Penn State visits Columbus, too.
X-Factor: Jim Harbaugh
Michigan has factored into the Big Ten East race all the way into the last week of the regular season each of the last two years. Guess what? Despite heavy losses on both sides, the Wolverines will be right in the mix again in 2017. Rashan Gary and Maurice Hurst will lead a nasty defensive line, and if presumed starter Wilton Speight finds a few reliable targets in the passing game, Michigan will be fine. Like, good-enough-to-make-it-to-Indianapolis fine.
Sleeper: Indiana
We picked the Hoosiers low given the coaching switch from Wilson to Tom Allen, but the All-Big Ten team has a few Hoosiers on both sides of the ball. Richard Lagow returns at quarterback, and Tegray Scales and Rashard Fant lead the defense. They could upset one of the big three at the most inconvenient time.
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Big Ten West predictions
1. Wisconsin
2. Iowa
3. Nebraska
4. Northwestern
5. Minnesota
6. Illinois
7. Purdue
Champion: Wisconsin
The Badgers lost three one-score games last year, and quarterback Alex Hornibrook returns around the same solid offensive line. On defense, Wisconsin’s disciplined approach will continue around T.J. Edwards and Jack Cichy. The schedule is a lot friendlier, too.
X-Factor: P.J. Fleck
How much will the Gophers shake up the Big Ten West? Fleck has an excellent running game built around Rodney Smith, and his progress will be monitored with great interest.
Sleeper: Northwestern
It's not the best sleeper pick since many pundits are clued in on the Wildcats, who return leading rusher Justin Jackson and solid lines on both sides. This is the year for Pat Fitzgerald to shake up the race.
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Three biggest games
Penn State at Ohio State (Oct. 28). The Nittany Lions have high hopes, but they won't come true without a victory in Columbus. The last two meetings at Ohio Stadium haven’t gone well. Ohio State beat Penn State 63-14 in 2013 and 38-10 in 2015.
Ohio State at Michigan (Nov. 25). This is still the biggest game on the Buckeyes’ schedule, and should be every bit as thrilling as last year’s double-overtime showdown. Will Harbaugh score that first victory against Ohio State as a coach?
Wisconsin at Nebraska (Oct. 7). We could have put Michigan-Penn State here, but we snuck in a Big Ten West game. The Badgers play Northwestern on Sept. 30, so it's a two-week stretch that could put them in the division driver’s seat early.
Heisman hopefuls
J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State. He's 32-4 as a starter and has 100 total touchdowns in his career. Barrett finished fifth in the Heisman voting in 2014. If he gets back to that level, then watch out.
Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State. He's a freakish athlete with a chance to carry the Nittany Lions to the College Football Playoff. Of all the running backs in the FBS, Barkley has the best setup for a Heisman run.
Trace McSorley, QB, Penn State. Yep, this feels like 1994 when Ki-Jana Carter finished second and Kerry Collins finished fourth. McSorley and Barkley are the reason why Penn State should be a 40-points-per-game-type offense.
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Hot seat: Mark Dantonio, Michigan State
It is almost unfathomable, considering the Spartans won the conference in 2015, but the combination of a 3-9 season and a prolonged sexual assault investigation have put some heat on Dantonio to get back in the Big Ten East mix in 2017.
Stat that matters
Seven of the top 10 leading rushers in the Big Ten return from 2016, including six 1,000-yard backs. That list includes Barkley, Northwestern's Jackson, Minnesota's Rodney Smith, Ohio State's Mike Weber, Iowa's Akrum Wadley, Maryland's Ty Johnson and Michigan State's LJ Scott. It should be the "Year of the Running Back" in the conference.
Big Ten champion: Ohio State
Meyer is 61-6 since taking over at Ohio State, but that has come with just one Big Ten championship. The last time that happened, the Buckeyes won it all. They'll get another shot at in the College Football Playoff.
All-Conference team
From the Street & Smith’s Yearbook, available here:
Offense
QB: J.T. Barrett, Ohio State
RB: Saquon Barkley, Penn State
RB: Justin Jackson, Northwestern
WR: Nick Westbrook, Indiana
WR: Jazz Peavy, Wisconsin
TE: Mike Gesicki, Penn State
OL: Jamarco Jones, Ohio State
OL: Beau Benzschawel, Wisconsin
OL: Brian Allen, Michigan State
OL: Mason Cole, Michigan
OL: Billy Price, Ohio State
Defense
DL: Tyquan Lewis, Ohio State
DL: Maurice Hurst, Michigan
DL: Rashan Gary, Michigan
DL: Nick Bosa, Ohio State
LB: Tegray Scales, Indiana
LB: T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin
LB: Josey Jewell, Iowa
DB: Rashard Fant, Indiana
DB: Denzel Ward, Ohio State
DB: Marcus Allen, Penn State
DB: Godwin Igwebuike, Northwestern
Special teams
K: Tyler Davis, Penn State
P: Hunter Niswander, Northwestern
