Winning the Big 12 doesn't guarantee a berth in the College Football Playoff.
Oklahoma found that out last season despite not losing a conference game. Same goes for Baylor and TCU in 2014. So the conference re-instituted a championship game to help improve those chances, and that's the biggest change for the 2017 season.
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Or is it? Bob Stoops retired in June, which means Lincoln Riley takes over for the Sooners. Tom Herman takes over at Texas, and Matt Rhule is the new coach at Baylor. The Big 12 is a high-powered offensive conference, but the big question is whether that will produce a playoff team in 2017.
With that in mind, let's break down the Big 12 with predictions for both divisions, the hype team, sleeper team, X-factor, Heisman hopefuls, hot seat, stat that matters and biggest games that will determine who wins that championship.
Big 12 predictions
1. Oklahoma
2. Oklahoma State
3. West Virginia
4. Kansas State
5. Texas
6. TCU
7. Baylor
8. Texas Tech
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas State
Big 12 championship game pick
The Big 12 has a championship game again, and it will be interesting to see how this goes over. Bedlam is one of college football's best rivalries, and the regular-season meeting was bumped up to Nov. 4. That meeting is in Stillwater. Do the Cowboys have it in them to beat the Sooners twice?
X-Factor: Will Grier
West Virginia won 10 games last year, but blowout losses to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Miami put a damper on that success. The arrival of Florida transfer Will Grier helped Mountaineers' fans forget all that. Grier should keep West Virginia's offense humming, and they'll be a factor in the race through November as a result.
Sleeper: Kansas State
The Wildcats have a lot working in their favor under Bill Snyder, including an experienced quarterback in Jesse Ertz and solid offensive and defensive lines. Oklahoma and West Virginia come to Manhattan, so that Nov. 18 trip to Stillwater could come with a spot in the Big 12 title game on the line.
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Three biggest games
Oklahoma at Oklahoma State (Nov. 4). We penciled it in as the conference championship game, but there's also a chance it could be an elimination game.
Oklahoma vs. Texas (Oct. 14). It's the first meeting between new coaches Riley and Herman, and it will shape the new direction of the Red River Rivalry.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia (Oct. 28). Brace yourself for a shootout that could determine one of the representatives in the Big 12 championship game. The Cowboys have won three of the last five meetings.
Heisman hopefuls
Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma. Mayfield is a two-time Heisman finalist who leads a 40-points-per-game offense. He could easily earn another trip to New York.
Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State. Rudolph is one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the country, and the numbers will be there in the Cowboys' high-powered attack.
James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State. Desmond Howard is the last receiver to win the Heisman Trophy, so Washington will need the combination of numbers and wow factor just to get a look. Leading the Cowboys to the College Football Playoff also would be a basic requirement.
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Hot seat: Kliff Kingsbury, Texas Tech
Kingsbury has compiled a 13-23 record in conference play the last four seasons, and the Red Raiders haven't had a winning record in Big 12 play in that stretch. The defense allowed a FBS-worst 43.5 points per game last season. If that doesn't change, there might be a change.
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Stat that matters
Mayfield and Rudolph finished second and third, respectively, in passing yards behind Patrick Mahomes II in the Big 12 the last two seasons. Both quarterbacks should continue to compete at a Heisman-caliber level leading up to one — or possibly two — shootouts against each other.
Big 12 champion: Oklahoma
It's the safe pick for now. The Sooners have lost just one conference game the last two seasons and have enough talent around Riley to make another run to the College Football Playoff. We'll re-evaluate after the Sooners' showdown at Ohio State on Sept. 9.
All-Conference team
From the Street & Smith's Yearbook, available here:
Offense
QB: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma
RB: Justice Hill, Oklahoma State
RB: Justin Crawford, West Virginia
WR: James Washington, Oklahoma State
WR: Allen Lazard, Iowa State
TE: Mark Andrews, Oklahoma
OL: Connor Williams, Texas
OL: Jake Campos, Iowa State
OL: Orlando Brown, Oklahoma
OL: Austin Scholotmann, TCU
OL: Dalton Risner, Kansas State
Defense
DL: Reggie Walker, Kansas State
DL: Dorance Armstrong, Kansas
DL: Malcolm Roach, Texas
DL: K.J. Smith, Baylor
LB: Malik Jefferson, Texas
LB: Travin Howard, TCU
LB: Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, Oklahoma
DB: Kamaron Cotton-Moya, Iowa State
DB: Dravon Askew-Henry, West Virginia
DB: Jordan Thomas, Oklahoma
DB: D.J. Reed, Kansas State
Special teams
K: Mike Molina, West Virginia
P: Michael Dickson, Texas
