The 4th of July is here, and with it comes many yearly traditions — cookouts, fireworks, lawn games, and Major League Baseball come to mind. Perhaps the most uniquely American ritual is the Nathan’s Famous International Hot Dog Eating Contest (Tuesday at 11 a.m. ET, ESPN). The titans of the men's and women's side — the GOATs of frankfurter feasting and heavy favorites to each devour another W on Tuesday — are Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo.
The annual eating competition, an official 4th of July tradition since the 1970s, has unofficially served as a Coney Island staple for over 100 years. The world champions of wiener-wolfing have been crowned exclusively at Nathan’s iconic original restaurant except in 2020 and '21 when the event took place in alternate sites.
Just like last year, the contest will be right where it should be on the Fourth: on the corner of Surf and Stillwell Avenues in Brooklyn’s Coney Island neighborhood. And just like the past three years, we’re back to bet on this wildly popular event that simultaneously screams "'Merica!" and has us reaching for antacids in sympathy as we watch in awestruck horror.
Let's discuss the background of Nathan's Famous Hot Dog Eating Contest from a betting standpoint, further discuss the competitors, and then go over the odds and best bets for the men's and women's sides.
The inception of hot-dog eating contest sports betting
DraftKings became the first sportsbook to partner with the competition in 2020, ultimately offering odds for the men’s and women’s champion, odds for the field, and over/unders on total hot dogs consumed by each winner. Since then, most of the major books have followed, as more and more people recognize the eating contest as a sport.
“[Nathan’s Coney Island Hot Dog Eating Competition broadcaster] ESPN had already affirmed us as a sport in the early 2000s,” said Major League Eating president Rich Shea after New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Colorado officially approved wagering on the event last year. “With legal betting, we are really now as legitimate as the NFL and the NBA.”
BetMGM now offers a full array of odds related to the event, offering viewers the unique opportunity to engage with the men's and women's contests throughout the two-hour broadcast. The question bettors must ask themselves is not who will win — but rather how many dogs the two odds-on favorites will inhale in the process.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest: The GOATs of Dogs
One thing’s for certain: the GOAT of hot dog eating, Joey “Jaws” Chestnut, will generate the most betting action on Tuesday. A record 15-time champion, Chestnut won the competition every year from 2007 to '14 and from '16 to '22. Two years ago at the Nathan’s warehouse, he broke his own '20 record by one, downing a whopping 76 hot dogs and buns without spillage or pukage (known within the sport as “reversal of fortune”). Last year, he casually took down the field by wolfing down 63 wieners, his lowest total in seven years but still 15.5 more than runner-up Geoffrey Esper.
Chestnut has blown away the competition every year since Japanese competitor and six-time champion Kobayashi stopped appearing in '07. Known as the “Godfather of Competitive Eating,” the Nagano native previously held the record with 53 dogs. Joey Jaws has bested that total all 16 years since, reaching 70 in 10 minutes six different times.
If Chestnut is the Bill Russell of the men’s side (or Michael Jordan, take your GOAT), Miki Sudo is undoubtedly the Serena Williams of the women’s competition. Sudo won every year from '14 to '20, having unseated Sonya Thomas (the winner of the first three women’s contests from '11 to '13). She also ate her competition for breakfast last year, taking down 40 dogs while runner-up Michelle Lesco could manage just 26. Sudo will be looking to dunk the field once again on Tuesday.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023: Injury Reports & News
Last year, Chestnut arrived at Coney Island press row on crutches two days before the event, nursing a lingering ruptured tendon in his right foot (he suffered two broken bones in the same foot in December 2021). However, he assured concerned fans and media members that he would be able to push through and uphold his yearly tradition of dominance.
"I feel better than I look," Chestnut told AP Sports after weighing in. "But I'm going to go out there and I'm gonna go out hungry and I'm gonna eat. It's something I love doing — it's the 4th of July, and I'm gonna push it. The tendon injury hurts really bad, but I can stand up and I can eat."
Chestnut seems back to full health this year, although many wonder how much longer he will continue carrying on with the challenging hobby of competitive eating. A civil engineer by day, he will turn 40 this November. He's earned six figures from the sponsorships that come with being a 15-time winner, but winning the contest itself nets him just $10,000 each year. Is carrying on his legend into his 40s worth the gastrointestinal stress?
Like Chestnut, Sudo has nothing left to prove to the world of competitive eating, but she doesn't seem to be going anywhere anytime soon. Sudo claimed the female record for most franks and buns consumed (48.5) two years ago, and she also possesses world records in ice cream (two gallons in six minutes) and kimchi (8.5 pounds in six minutes).
Sudo's husband Nick Wehry will be competing against Chestnut on Tuesday, just like he did in 2022. Also a competitive eater, Wehry holds the record for most hard-boiled eggs (50 in 3:02 minutes), and he took down Chestnut in the first-ever pistachio eating competition back in February. However, he only managed 40.5 dogs last year, 22.5 shy of the GOAT.
Sudo and Wehry aim to break another record: most dogs downed by a couple in one event. Spoiler: it's their own record to break. They combined to devour 88 total dogs in '20 — her astonishing aforementioned total of 48.5, and Wehry's quite respectable 39.5 dogs (good for third place in the men's). Inch by inch, footlong by footlong, they are a power (eating) couple.
Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest 2023: Best Bets
Odds courtesy of BetMGM — Click here for more odds and sign up for BetMGM today!
Outright Winner: Joey Chestnut -5000 over “The Field” +3000
It sounds crazy, and you probably don’t have the mustard (or cheddar, for that matter) to bet a favorite at -5000 in a hot-dog eating contest, but Chestnut is the GOAT for a reason. He’s been untouchable in 14 of the past 15 events and in seven straight. We can’t advise you to bet $100 to net $2.00, but we also highly recommend avoiding the field. Joey Jaws won by 15.5 dogs last year and by 33 dogs the two years prior!
Women’s Outright Winner: Miki Sudo -5000 over "The Field" +2500
We made the unfortunate mistake of recommending the field last year at +1100, thinking Sudo could struggle after a two-year absence following the birth of her first child. What a blunder! Sorry to have ever doubted you, Miki — we won't make that mistake again. Although we still can't recommend our readers bet $5,000 to make $100 in profit.
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Winner: Chestnut UNDER 76.5 (-350) and UNDER 73.5 (-120)
This is where we make our money on the 4th of July. Last year, Chestnut's over/under was listed at 74.5, and we smashed the UNDER like Chestnut smashes wet buns into his mouth. The result: we cashed easily when he managed just 63 dogs.
Chestnut is getting older and owns all the records imaginable in this contest. He almost definitely won't go for 77 when he knows all he needs is 60. We don't think he'll go for 74, either. BetMGM gives us the option to bet either total, with the smaller UNDER yielding far shorter odds and a much better payout.
Chestnut broke his own record inside the Nathan’s factory two years ago, as the event social-distanced for the second-straight year due to the pandemic. ESPN’s feed cut out multiple times during the event, including the last 15 seconds when Chestnut allegedly reached the 76th dog. This caused an uproar among viewers, some of whom wanted to see history and plenty more of whom bet the UNDER of 73.5 at +110.
Fans and bettors were relieved last year to have the event back where it should be and perfectly visible to all in-person spectators and television viewers. We're taking the UNDER once again, as we just don’t think Joey Jaws can chomp down 75-plus dogs for the third time in four years. He's older, a year removed from a painful foot injury, and has no need to try to shock the world again. Combine those factors with the fact that the runner-up ate just 47.5 dogs last year, and the UNDER seems like a no-brainer.
Total Hot Dogs Eaten by Miki Sudo: UNDER 48.5 (-275) and UNDER 44.5 (-125)
Like with Chestnut, we also hit the UNDER on Sudo last year, on both the opening line of 49.5 (-165) and the closing UNDER of 43.5 (+120). This year, we will smash the UNDER of 48.5 and more than likely also bet the UNDER of 44.5 (-125) at shorter odds.
Sudo got back into the swing of things last year after birthing a child and taking two years off the competition. She put down a very respectable 40 dogs, impressive as hell to mere mortals but disappointing by her standards. She still cleared the field by 14 dogs, though, so there was no photo-finish drama for this mama.
Sudo's record-breaking performance of 48.5 dogs in 2020 likely has plenty of fans tempted by the +100 odds BetMGM has listed for OVER 44.5. But keep in mind that the American female champ only reached 41 once outside of her 48.5-dog record. Her six other victories across her seven-year undefeated streak all topped out in the 30s. She will win on Tuesday — there's no doubt about that — but if you also want to win, you're best bet is to wager on the UNDER across the board for both favorites.
