Clemson and Florida State have taken turns dominating the ACC the last six seasons.
The schools each have three conference titles and a national championship in that stretch, and Dabo Swinney and Jimbo Fisher bring back teams that should start the season in the top five in most preseason polls. Either the Tigers or Seminoles will be picked to win the conference by most preseason publications.
Can anybody disrupt that rhythm? Louisville returns Heisman Trophy winner Lamar Jackson, and N.C. State is a popular sleeper in the ACC Atlantic. Duke, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Virginia Tech have taken turns winning the ACC Coastal the last four years, and Miami and Pitt are looking to get in that mix. Can anybody take out Clemson or Florida State? That remains the big question.
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With that in mind, let's break down the ACC with predictions for both divisions, the hype team, sleeper team, X-factor, Heisman hopefuls, hot seat, stat that matters and biggest games that will determine who wins that championship.
ACC Atlantic predictions
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. Louisville
4. N.C. State
5. Wake Forest
6. Syracuse
7. Boston College
Champion: Florida State
Fisher has compiled so much talent, enough that the Seminoles could be ranked No. 2 heading into the season-opening showdown against Alabama. Deondre Francois returns at quarterback, SN preseason All-Americans Derwin James and Tarvarus McFadden lead the defense and five-star freshman Cam Akers is a star-in-the-making.
X-Factor: Sept. 16
We might have to change this pick after Sept. 16. By then, the Seminoles will have played Alabama and Miami, and Clemson will have played Auburn and Louisville. Remember, the Cardinals have Jackson back and aren't going to fold before the race starts. There are several key games played in the first three weeks. Would either the Tigers or Seminoles have one — or even two — losses at this point?
Sleeper: Louisville
The popular pick is N.C. State, but the Cardinals have been virtually ignored in the preseason because of a three-game losing streak to end 2016. They are the obligatory bronze medal pick in the ACC Atlantic, but with Jackson they have more than enough firepower to win the division. The Cardinals do travel to N.C. State on Oct. 5. Maybe that's the best way to settle this.
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ACC Coastal predictions
1. Miami, Fla.
2. Virginia Tech
3. Pittsburgh
4. Georgia Tech
5. North Carolina
6. Duke
7. Virginia
Champion: Miami, Fla.
That didn't take long. Mark Richt should lead the Hurricanes to that long-awaited first appearance in the ACC championship game, but that's assuming Malik Rosier steps up at quarterback. Mark Walton is an all-ACC stud running back, and the defense has talent. Now it's time to go out and get it done.
X-Factor: Transfer QBs
Former USC quarterback Max Browne is at Pitt, and former LSU quarterback Brandon Harris is at North Carolina. Can both of those highly-touted recruits energize their offenses enough to make it interesting?
Sleeper: Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech also is a possibility here, but we like what Browne could do for Pitt's straightforward attack in Pat Narduzzi's third season. Remember, Pitt beat Penn State and Clemson last season, but the Panthers also were wildly inconsistent. A bonus on the schedule is no Florida State, Clemson or Louisville.
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Three biggest games
Florida State at Clemson (Nov. 11). It's the main event, and with good reason. The winner of this game the last four seasons has reached the championship game three times. Each team has scored one victory on the road in that stretch, too.
Miami, Fla. at Florida State (Sept. 16). It's early, and it's a chance for the Hurricanes to avenge last year's 20-19 loss. And the six losses before that. Miami hasn't beat Florida State since 2009, and we can't take their conference championship hopes seriously until they do it again.
Clemson at Louisville (Sept. 16). Remember when Louisville lit up Florida State 63-20 in Week 3 last season? Clemson steps into that same trap at Papa John's Stadium, and the winner will have the early bump in the ACC Atlantic race. It's a tone-setter for the division race.
Heisman hopefuls
Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville. He's not a contender. He's the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and Sporting News top player entering the 2017 season.
Deondre Francois, QB, Florida State. He'll have to be more consistent than last year, but he's set up for success with the talent around him and will have several big stages to show off that talent. He could make the biggest statement in Week 1 against Alabama in Atlanta.
Malik Rosier, QB, Miami. Rosier has to win the starting job first, but it's the same story as Jackson and Francois. You win the big games in the conference, then you have a chance for something special. Ask Jameis Winston, Deshaun Watson and Jackson.
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Hot seat: Stave Adazzio, Boston College
You could go with N.C. State's Dave Doeren here, but Adazzio enters his fifth year looking for a better showing than 7-6. The Eagles are just 2-14 in ACC play the last two years, and the offense ranked 118th and 121st, respectively, in points scored the last two years.
Stat that matters
The ACC flexed its muscle with a 9-3 bowl record last season, but that success can be fleeting. The conference went 4-6 in bowl games in 2015-16 and 4-7 in 2014-15. That's a 17-16 record over three years. The SEC, meanwhile, is 22-14 in bowl games in that stretch.
ACC Champion: Florida State
It's not going to be easy to win the conference, and the Seminoles wouldn't have much room for error if they lose the opener to Alabama. Miami and Louisville visit Tallahassee, too. It's about getting to that Clemson game with a chance to win the division, and we have confidence that the Seminoles get there.
All-Conference team
From the Street & Smith's Yearbook, available here:
Offense
QB: Lamar Jackson, Louisville
RB: Mark Walton, Miami
RB: Jacques Patrick, Florida State
WR: Ahmmon Richards, Miami
WR: Deon Cain, Clemson
TE: Jaylen Samuels, N.C. State
OL: Mitch Hyatt, Clemson
OL: Tony Adams, N.C. State
OL: Alec Eberle, Florida State
OL: Tyrone Crowder, Clemson
OL: Brian O'Neill, Pittsburgh
Defense
DL: Harold Landry, Boston College
DL: Derrick Nnadi, Florida State
DL: Dexter Lawrence, Clemson
DL: Bradley Chubb, N.C. State
LB: Tremaine Edmunds, Virginia Tech
LB: Micah Kiser, Virginia
LB: Ben Humphreys, Duke
DB: Tarvarus McFadden, Florida State
DB: Derwin James, Florida State
DB: Quin Blanding, Virginia
DB: Jaire Alexander, Louisville
Special teams
K: Joey Slye, Virginia Tech
P: Dom Maggio, Wake Forest
