Not only did the Mariners last season have their first winning record since 2009, but they came one game short of making the playoffs for the first time since 2001. The incredible thing about that performance? They were tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored in the American League, ahead of only the Yankees, Astros and Rays.
Seattle made a big effort to upgrade its lineup over the winter, adding major league home run leader Nelson Cruz as its designated hitter and trading for Seth Smith to play right field. You can’t blame anyone in the Pacific Northwest for dreaming of the franchise’s first trip to the World Series.
So, what can be expected from the Mariners in 2015? Here are five predictions.
1. Long live the King
Felix Hernandez, last season’s runner-up in the Cy Young vote, is the undisputed ace of the Mariners’ staff and owner of three consecutive seasons with an FIP below 3.00. King Felix led the American League in ERA (2.14) and WHIP (0.915) while striking out a career-high 248 batters in 236 innings.
He turns 29 in April, and given Lloyd McClendon’s fairly conservative handling of his top gun — Hernandez did not throw a complete game in 2014 and never threw more than 116 pitches in a start — there is no reason to believe that Hernandez will be anything short of phenomenal again. Put him down for an eighth consecutive season of 200 innings, a seventh straight with 200 strikeouts and once again, a win total that makes him the most prominent case for “kill the win” battle criers.
This time, Hernandez will top out at 17, and fairly or not, that will be among factors that leads to him losing out on the Cy Young again, this time to Chris Sale.
2. Cruz control
Cruz hit 40 home runs last season, but before you put all of that on having played in a bandbox in Baltimore, know this: Only 15 of his dingers came at Camden Yards.
Still, Safeco Field is a terrible place for a right-handed power hitter, with only Bret Boone (twice), Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez, and Richie Sexson (twice) having reached 30 homers for the Mariners since 2000. Seattle designated hitters put up a combined .190/.266/.301 line with 15 homers last season.
While Cruz might not hit 40 out of the park again, and the odds on a 34-year-old coming off his first 40-homer season doing that are terrible, he will provide a huge boost at .260/.332/.498 with 28 round-trippers.
3. What’s Happ-ening?
The Mariners’ primary pitching acquisition of the winter was J.A. Happ, slotted to work in the rotation behind Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma and James Paxton, and ahead of the winner of the Roenis Elias-Taijuan Walker battle for the No. 5 spot. The problem with this plan is that Elias is basically a younger, cheaper, better version of Happ, while Walker is 22 with the potential to be an elite starter.
With the strength of their rotation and service time issues, you can understand the Mariners taking it slow with Walker, but this is a team with championship aspirations and it needs its best players on the field, regardless of what it might mean for their contract status in five years.
Moving to Seattle will not change the fact that Happ has a career FIP of 4.36, and between the ease of using Elias in his spot and Walker’s emergence, the journeyman left-hander will be on to the next stop in his journey by July.
4. Cream, no sugar
The Mariners introduced an alternate uniform, a cream-colored faux throwback look featuring the royal blue and yellow color scheme that Seattle used until making the move to navy blue with teal in the height of the teal-crazy 1990s (though the Mariners call their version “Northwest Green,” and still wear the solid teal jerseys on Fridays).
The new uniforms, to be worn for Sunday home games, are highlighted by brilliant blue stirrups with yellow stripes — really, the only good thing about the look, because the yellow otherwise clashes with the cream, and the blue lettering somehow looks washed out.
Anyway, take a look while you can, because after the Mariners lose their first five Sunday home games of the season, you will never see the uniforms again.
5. How the West was won
Having shed Happ and moved forward with a nearly indomitable rotation, to go with a better lineup and no more bad-luck uniforms, the Mariners will come out of the All-Star break with the best run Seattle has seen since the 1995 comeback to take down the Angels. With 24 wins in 26 games, the Mariners will open a 12-game lead in the West.
Things will get a little bit dicey when the Angels cut it to six in mid-September, but by taking two out of three at home from their closest rivals, the Mariners will have a seven-game lead with 15 to play. The clinch will come in Anaheim on the next-to-last weekend of the season.
Seattle’s superior pitching will get the Mariners through the division series, but the dream will come crashing down in the ALCS.