With pitchers and catchers reporting to spring training this week, there is another rite of midwinter happening: Las Vegas’ annual posting of over/under betting for each team’s win totals.
The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has set the lines, which means that it is time to make picks — for entertainment purposes only, namely to look back in October, point and laugh. What is it that they say? “You can’t predict baseball.” Well, here goes anyway, with a look at the National League.
Braves
2014 wins: 79
2015 over/under: 74.5
From all appearances of their offseason, the Braves are setting up to tank in 2015 and probably 2016, and who knows after that, given the returns that Atlanta got in its offseason trades. We’re used to living in a world where if the Braves win 75 games, something has gone horribly wrong. We still live in a world where if the Braves win 75 games, something has gone horribly wrong. Just, you know, in a different way.
Pick: Under
Brewers
2014 wins: 82
2015 over/under: 78.5
Without last year’s hot start, Milwaukee would have been somewhere in the 70s for wins. It’s basically the same team this year, because for some reason, the Brewers looked around, saw a team that was neither good enough to make the playoffs nor bad enough to completely dismantle, then decided to do virtually nothing. It’s a bold move toward mediocrity.
Pick: Under
Cardinals
2014 wins: 90
2015 over/under: 88
Adding another quality arm to the stable this winter would have been nice, but it is hard to see why the Cardinals would be worse in 2015 than they were in 2014. In a highly stratified National League, St. Louis remains among the elite.
Pick: Over
Cubs
2014 wins: 73
2015 over/under: 82.5
Whether or not you are an adherent of the North Side Church of McFly and believe that the Cubs will fulfil the Back to the Future 2 prophecy of a World Series win this year (still waiting on those flying cars and instant pizzas — THANKS OBAMA), there is no doubting that the Cubs are poised to take a major step forward with Joe Maddon at the helm and the addition of Jon Lester to front the rotation. How far the Cubs get depends on the progress of their young hitters. The experience that several got down the stretch last year should help.
Pick: Over
Diamondbacks
2014 wins: 64
2015 over/under: 71.5
This is a bad baseball team, as evidenced by the idea that a season of only 90 losses would pay off the over. The Diamondbacks’ most wins last year came against the Padres — 12 of their 64 victories were against San Diego. Now, the Padres look much better. Where does that leave Arizona? Wedged between California and New Mexico. Thank you, we’ll be here all week, but seriously, this is a bad baseball team.
Pick: Under
Dodgers
2014 wins: 94
2015 over/under: 93.5
Hanley Ramirez is gone, but the rotation is somehow deeper than it was last year with the addition of Brandon McCarthy, the defense up the middle figures to be better, and the bullpen has a good chance to not be the disaster that it turned out to be last year. This is a very big number to cover, the competition within the division is better, and any kind of health issues could slam the door shut, but the Dodgers have the talent to do it.
Pick: Over
Giants
2014 wins: 88
2015 over/under: 83.5
Let’s do some long division. 2015 divided by 2… that’s 1007… and a half. Ooh, that makes this an odd-numbered year. Bad news for San Francisco, then. Seriously, though, with Tim Hudson and Jake Peavy each a year older, you have to worry about how the rotation will fare over 162 games, and even though Madison Bumgarner seems like he knows no human bounds of stamina, he still threw 260 innings last year, including the playoffs. It is not unusual for that to reflect itself in the following season.
Pick: Under
Marlins
2014 wins: 77
2015 over/under: 81.5
The question is how much the Marlins will improve over last year, and a lot of the answer depends on how much Miami can get out of Jose Fernandez upon his return from Tommy John surgery. Let’s say that an expected win range for the Marlins would be something like 78-84. The exact midpoint of that is 81.5. That outfield is so exciting, it’s a reason to be optimistic.
Pick: Over
Mets
2014 wins: 79
2015 over/under: 82
No, the Mets did not get a big-name shortstop, but Wilmer Flores should not kill them. No, the Mets do not play in Denver, but Michael Cuddyer should be a fine complementary bat that has been needed in the outfield. No, the fences being moved in does not make the Mets play in Yankee Stadium, but Curtis Granderson should be better in 2015 just by virtue of his start to 2014 being a once-in-a-lifetime kind of struggle for a player of his caliber. There are a lot of reasons to doubt the Mets. There are more reasons to believe, staring with their pitching, which should be excellent.
Pick: Over
Nationals
2014 wins: 96
2015 over/under: 94
After adding Max Scherzer to an already loaded rotation and Yunel Escobar at second base, the Nationals’ over/under is… lower than their 2014 win total? The reason is that 96 would be a preposterous number to put on the board, with pretty much no margin for error or injury. That’s not to say that 94 is a piece of cake. It isn’t, especially not with the Marlins and Mets starting to look like wild-card contenders, if not division contenders. Still, damn, that’s a hell of a roster.
Pick: Over
Padres
2014 wins: 77
2015 over/under: 84.5
The rotation is good, but not as good as the Dodgers’ rotation. The lineup is good, but not as good as the Dodgers’ lineup. The Padres are good, but not as good as the Dodgers. We’re not measuring against the Dodgers, though, we’re measuring against a number, 84.5, and the Padres should be better than that.
Pick: Over
Phillies
2014 wins: 73
2015 over/under: 68.5
It is a testament to how bad the National League East was last year that the Phillies were as bad as they were and still did not lose 90 games.
Pick: Under
Pirates
2014 wins: 88
2015 over/under: 83.5
Vegas must really love Edinson Volquez. Actually, looking at the Royals’ over/under, that is not the case. Vegas must really love Russell Martin. Actually, looking at the Blue Jays’ over/under, that is not the case. So, what gives? The Pirates still have a tremendous lineup, which could be even better if the addition of Jung Ho Kang pans out. The rotation depth isn’t great, but that was true last year, too. Is it the Cubs getting better? But the Brewers and Reds probably will be worse. This is among the most tempting lines to actually call a friend in Vegas about and ask them to put down a couple of bucks. Bucks on the Bucs.
Pick: Over
Reds
2014 wins: 76
2015 over/under: 78
Better health could make the Reds a better team. The roster moves of the offseason should make the Reds a worse team. Seriously, what are the odds that Marlon Byrd is still in Cincinnati on August 1? Does Vegas have any odds on that?
Pick: Under
Rockies
2014 wins: 66
2015 over/under: 71.5
Sure, if Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki stay healthy all year, the Rockies could lose fewer than 91 games. It’s certainly possible. Then again, “No. 3 starter Kyle Kendrick” is a thing that is set to happen, so…
Pick : Under