The Dolphins are sitting on nearly $90 million in salary cap space, more than any team in the NFL for the 2020 offseason. They also have a league-leading three first-round selections for the 2020 draft at their disposal.
That leaves Miami with several possible outcomes when it comes to who will quarterback the team to start the 2020 regular season. Only one thing is certain — third-year backup Josh Rosen won't be the guy.
Here are the nine scenarios for Miami's QB situation next season, ranked from most to least likely.
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1. Dolphins draft Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins have the No. 5, No. 18 (from the Steelers) and No. 26 (from the Texans) picks. If they stay put there's a good chance they would have a clear shot at Tagovailoa fifth overall with Joe Burrow (Bengals) and Chase Young (Redskins) going 1-2. With the non-QB needy Giants at No. 4, it comes down to what the Lions do at No. 3. They could go with the best defensive player available, but the Lions also could set themselves up to replace Matthew Stafford with Tagovailoa or trade down with another team who wants Tagovailoa.
If Miami likes Tua enough, the team would certainly have the capacity to make the slight trade up to No. 3 to land the Alabama prospect, who's trending toward a clean bill of health soon following season-ending hip surgery. The Dolphins, however you look at it, are best positioned to land the second QB off the board.
They also have a good contingency plan for the short term should Tagovailoa need a little extra time to get physically right with Ryan Fitzpatrick still having one more year left on a reasonable bridge QB contract. They also have two high draft picks with which to build Tagovailoa's offensive support and new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey has a long history of getting the best out of quarterbacks with different skill sets.
The Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes just proved again that a strong formula for winning big in the NFL is hitting on a rookie QB who quickly finds his high ceiling. Tagovailoa's upside can't be denied and the opportunity to get him may be too good to pass up.
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2. Dolphins draft Justin Herbert
Then again, the Dolphins might think Herbert, the former Oregon QB who looks the part at 6-6, 237 pounds, with an accurate arm and ample athleticism, is that potential transcendent QB at No. 5 (or earlier) after Burrow is off the board. When Sporting News talked to Tagovailoa and Herbert before EA Sports Bowl in Miami during Super Bowl week, both of them seemed right at home, willing and ready to return for the long haul to play for the Dolphins.
While the top concern with Tagovailoa is health, Herbert carries more of a straight-up boom-or-bust feel with his physical attributes. While Herbert could easily be the next Carson Wentz, there's some who think he can end up like Paxton Lynch.
That said, Herbert would benefit from the same coaching and personnel commitment that Tagovailoa would. The Dolphins locked up DeVante Parker after his long-awaited big breakout season and between him, Preston Williams and tight end Mike Gesicki, there's a solid rookie QB-friendly receiving corps. This comes down to the Dolphins simply liking Herbert more than Tagovailoa.
3. Dolphins draft Jordan Love
The Dolphins of course don't need to use No. 5 overall at all to get their quarterback and instead can wait to take their QB with one of their late first-round picks. Love is a great candidate for selection at either No. 18 or No. 26 because the Utah State QB matches the high upside of Tagovailoa and Herbert, vs. Washington's Jacob Eason or Georgia's Jake Fromm.
At 6-4, 225 pounds, Love has prototypical size, and when he's on, he can use his arm to zip the ball anywhere downfield from either inside or outside the pocket. He needs strong NFL coaching to regain his accuracy and efficiency, but like Herbert, he stood out in that area at the Senior Bowl.
This comes down to the Dolphins having time on their side to develop Love, just like they would with Tagovailoa and Herbert, with the real goal of having him ready to go at his best in Year 2, a la Mahomes. Miami has been attached most to Tagovailoa in the draft process, but there's an early sense they continue to show Love increasing love as an alternative.
4. Dolphins stick with Ryan Fitzpatrick
This is a underrated scenario. Sure Fitzpatrick is a 37-year-old journeyman on his eighth team, but he's had a nice two-year stretch with the Buccaneers and Dolphins and did have one of his best all-around seasons when Gailey was his Jets offensive coordinator. Fitzpatrick sparked and led Miami well in 2019 as the team went 5-4 in the second half after starting 0-7.
No is expecting the Dolphins to contend for much whether they have a rookie first-round starter or Fitzpatrick. So if they don't want to force the issue at quarterback in the draft, they can roll with Fitzpatrick. He might need to start early, anyway, to keep the pocket warm for Tagovailoa, Herbert, Love.
The worst case with flying solo with Fitzpatrick can turn into the best case — that the Dolphins regress enough to either land the No. 1 pick in 2021 to get Clemson's Trevor Lawrence or are still positioned for Ohio State's Justin Fields. The best case is they improve enough to get into wild-card contention, creating a more desirable environment for their next QB, rookie or or otherwise.
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6. Dolphins sign Tom Brady
Brady might be more destined to go AFC West to either the Chargers or the Raiders should he not re-sign with the Patriots. But with the former New England presence of coach Brian Flores, Miami is right up there with Tennessee and Mike Vrabel as a familiar, comfortable situation for Brady.
Still, the Dolphins are a rebuilding team, unlike the Titans, and also don't have the surrounding talent (yet) to have big rebound potential into the playoffs like the Chargers or the Raiders. The way to change that in Miami, is to maximize all the free-agent and draft resources to suddenly construct a team that's ready to win now, and worry much less about a sustainable future.
Brady and the Dolphins will work only if he's one big part of a massive splash of veteran talent acquisition and he feels they also will load up on more immediate-impact rookies. They could consider that approach, given there will be no better time to jump the Patriots than their first season post Brady. As fun as it would be to see Brady face Bill Belichick's team without him twice in the AFC East, it's a long shot.
7. Dolphins draft a QB other than Tagovailoa, Herbert or Love
Eason, Fromm and Oklahoma's Jalen Hurts complete the six quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL Draft class with real NFL franchise starting potential. Hurts, because of winning pedigree and dual-threat skills, more fits into Miami shooting for the moon at the position.
But it's hard to see the Dolphins going for a non first-rounder vs. either just getting aggressive to address QB early or tabling the position draft-wise until 2021. Miami going down the middle for a moderate solution makes little sense and that also applies to free agency.
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8. Dolphins sign Philip Rivers or another free-agent QB
Brady is the biggest available name out there, given neither Dak Prescott (franchise tag or Cowboys' long-term deal) nor Drew Brees (retirement or Saints' short-team deal) are expected to hit the market, but he's not the only viable name. Rivers won't be returning to the Chargers and he just moved his family from Southern California to Florida.
Rivers represents the best accomplished veteran alternative to Brady for the Dolphins to still execute the "all in" offseason plan. After him, forget about former Dolphin Ryan Tannehill. Going to either Jameis Winston or Teddy Bridgewater won't work unless they can get them for less than overinflated open-market deals. Then it comes down to taking a chance on Marcus Mariota, which is back to going to unnecessary medium risk.
In the end, it's likely to be Brady or no one for the Dolphins in the free-agent route. Fitzpatrick and a rookie makes more sense than taking a pricey chance on a mid-career QB.
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9. Dolphins trade up for Joe Burrow
The Dolphins could go nuts in the draft and try to make the Bengals an offer they can't refuse creating some pleasing package using their multiple first-rounders. But that's assuming they think Burrow can be that much better than Tagovailoa or Herbert.
Miami might need to give up a little to ensure it does get Tua vs. a QB hungry field, but giving up a ton for Burrow and losing the capital with which to get support for him doesn't sound great, given there's no guarantee Burrow is can't-miss and can push toward Mahomes' elite play any better than Tagovailoa or Herbert.
A first-round rookie is still the most likely starter for the Dolphins next season. Tagovailoa and Herbert are about even, while you can take Burrow off the board now.
